Malaysian Flight 370

[Monty Fowler]

Hmmm, now they're talking about bits of luggage, an "aircraft window," "Chinese" water bottle, and other little pieces washing ashore. This is starting to sound more like a Controlled Flight Into Water to me. Which means there won't be much to find on the ocean floor.

At least finding the flaperon puts the wilder conspiracy theories to rest.

LTM,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 CE

[Martin X. Moleski, SJ]

At least finding the flaperon puts the wilder conspiracy theories to rest.

That is what they want you to think!   ::)

[ibscas]

I'm pretty sure the aliens know to leave a few pieces here and there as they do their ongoing probing so that nobody suspect it was them.

[Bob Smith]

There are certainly going to be conspiracy theories for any happening that can't be easily explained, because they themselves are not easily explained or proven. MH370 will probably be popping up soon in Mauritania or Africa or maybe Russia, and everybody will be relieved and feel embarrassed to have thought there was any such things as aliens, or thoughts of hijacking or whatever. But still there does seem at this point, as they search for more debris around the flaperon site, that something in the whole scenario is missing. This little relatively tiny piece of evidence (possibly) is nothing compared to the bulk of the 777 as a whole, easily manipulated and relatively light in weight.It would, however seem that it had to be torn from the wing with great force and separated from other parts normally attached to it, such as the actuator, etc., most of which should float also. Where would the fuel tanks be, and the tubing and electrical lines be that were possibly routed through it?

[Ric Gillespie]

This is an interesting model for what might happen of TIGHAR recovered a conclusively identifiable piece of NR16020 at Nikumaroro.

[Martin X. Moleski, SJ]

This is an interesting model for what might happen of TIGHAR recovered a conclusively identifiable piece of NR16020 at Nikumaroro.

Yes, exactly.

"There is no any-idiot artifact.  Just when you think it's idiot-proof, they go and invent a new idiot!"

[Ian MacKay]

On August 21, the French publication Ladepeche posted an article saying that the French technical investigation of the flaperon was completed, and that they had been unable to determine with 100% certainty that the part was from flight MH 370.
The original article in French is here:
http://www.ladepeche.fr/article/2015/08/21/2162976-mh-370-a-balma-l-enquete-technique-est-bouclee.html

Jeff Wise has a good translation into English on his site:
http://jeffwise.net/category/aviation/

The article also has comments from an anonymous French investigator saying that the flaperon had not traveled on the surface, but rather partway down the water column. As Jeff Wise points out, it is hard to imagine that the part had such precisely neutral buoyancy that it neither sank to the bottom nor floated on top.

~ Ian

[Ric Gillespie]

As Jeff Wise points out, it is hard to imagine that the part had such precisely neutral buoyancy that it neither sank to the bottom nor floated on top.

The part is going to have some point of buoyancy between floating like a cork and sinking like a tool box.  I don't see why that point can't be somewhere on the spectrum of neutral buoyancy.

This all sounds so familiar. 
"If the deputy prosecutor of the Republic of Paris has stated that there was a "very strong supposition" that the piece belonged to the plane of flight MH370, which disappeared 18 months ago, that is based on circumstantial evidence."

At what point does a preponderance of circumstantial evidence and the absence of a credible alternate explanation become sufficient to move the judgement from "probable" to "virtually certain."   It is the great paradox of all historical investigation that it is never possible to reach "certain."

[Bob Smith]

It is possible to reach "certain" within a reasonable doubt, isn't it, when they find a serial # or maintenance # of some kind, or a related part that it fits into. Let's hope they can do that by searching deeper and wider as they seem to be doing (slowly).

[Dave Ross Wilkinson]

This article appeared recently at 'The Daily Beast', concerning the possibility that fire might have caused the loss of MH370. 

The author describes, in some detail, the possibility that fire originating in the cargo hold penetrated the computer and electronics bay, causing the near-simultaneous failure of radio, transponder and acars, and subsequent (presumed) navigational failure.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/10/15/the-deadly-cargo-inside-mh370-how-exploding-batteries-explain-the-mystery.html

Everything written about MH370 seems to presented in sensational manner, as does this article.  But the writer builds his case in a  logical manner, using (seeming?) factual material.
 
-- Dave

[Bob Smith]

I don't think Amelia had any lithium batteries in her baggage. But if you are trying to imply that sometimes things take a little time to solve, I'll certainly agree.

[Dave Ross Wilkinson]

I think there is a line of text somewhere in Betty's notebook, assumed to be AE cautioning FN: "look out for that battery". 
Perhaps it has modern implications.

[Bob Smith]

I think that was when Fred was preparing to throw the battery at the inside of the "patch" in order to get out the window. It subsequently left a concave dent and presented some talking material for a lot of scientific exploitation ( exploration, sorry?)

[Monty Fowler]

Ummmm, there would not be any "throwing around" of that battery, unless you pump iron in your off-hours or something. That strikes me as just plain silly.

LTM,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 EC

[Bob Smith]

Of course it's silly,I made it up. Another thing that's silly, I think, is the "patch" separating from the airplane without some sort of large force directed specifically at the patch and not some other part in some other location. Indicates to me that some thought was put into the operation and not just some secondary result of forces originating in another area of the plane.