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Author Topic: Malaysian Flight 370  (Read 391278 times)

JNev

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #330 on: September 11, 2014, 04:33:07 PM »

Transport theft has been going on, however unreliably reported: Libya has apparently lost a number of passenger jets (Jane's supposedly questions the veracity of the reported scope of the thefts).

Somebody is interested in big jets as 'missles', apparently.

Flight 370 does remain dark as to answers.  I don't care to be labeled 'conspiracy theorist', but I hardly think that I am by observing the obvious: a 777 would make a fine catch for someone wanting to be in the human-driven missle business, and the earmarks are there; the absence of any clear suicide intentions of the pilot, etc. is odd - but then we didn't have that much on the Egypt Air Boeing 767 that piled into the Atlantic, either.  The subsequent thefts (judge for yourself) out of Libya underscore the desire - and perhaps was found to be the easier way (duh, why didn't they think of that before disposing of a plane load of innocents).

Maybe time will tell, either way... what do I know.  But this one remains a long way from solved...
- Jeff Neville

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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #331 on: September 12, 2014, 10:30:41 AM »

Somebody is interested in big jets as 'missles', apparently.

Using a big passenger jet as a missile can be a successful tactic as we know all too well, but you need to reach your target.  How close do you think an unidentified big jet would get to any target in the U.S. or Europe?  If you're going to use a big jet as a missile your best shot is to hijack a commercial flight.  Pick a flight that's going to someplace near your intended target and then hijack the flight only when it's close to its destination.

I agree that MH370 was abducted/stolen and may be in a hangar someplace (conspiracies do happen) but I don't think the airplane itself was the object of the abduction.  I think there was something aboard the aircraft - possibly proprietary engineering data on a laptop - that was valuable enough to somebody to justify a sophisticated operation.
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JNev

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #332 on: September 12, 2014, 12:55:38 PM »

Somebody is interested in big jets as 'missles', apparently.

Using a big passenger jet as a missile can be a successful tactic as we know all too well, but you need to reach your target.  How close do you think an unidentified big jet would get to any target in the U.S. or Europe?  If you're going to use a big jet as a missile your best shot is to hijack a commercial flight.  Pick a flight that's going to someplace near your intended target and then hijack the flight only when it's close to its destination.

I agree that MH370 was abducted/stolen and may be in a hangar someplace (conspiracies do happen) but I don't think the airplane itself was the object of the abduction.  I think there was something aboard the aircraft - possibly proprietary engineering data on a laptop - that was valuable enough to somebody to justify a sophisticated operation.

Unfortunately what we know of as the convential 'targets' may not be the intended targets - we have some roguish enemies of humanity at-work even now in the middle east who are busy trying to rub-out masses of people who differ with them in theology, whatever.  North America / Europe may not even be the target, nor Israel (which was my first thought).

You have a point - we certainly overlap in our view of what may have happened, too - something on that flight - airplane or otherwise, may well have been the target for reasons we can only guess at.  Seems like a lot of trouble to get hold of a laptop, and the airplane just 'feels' like the common denominator somehow to me, but it can be a strange world and your guess is at least as good as mine.

Somehow I still doubt this thing will ever turn up on the Indian ocean floor.
- Jeff Neville

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JNev

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #333 on: October 10, 2014, 09:08:39 PM »

Saw the NOVA special on Flight 370's disappearance.

Very interesting explanation of the IMMARSAT effort there - but I have to say, it looks a lot like counting straws in a haystack.  The delta in the numbers that were derived to get a sense of direction and distance were a few parts per billion.  I realize that they reduced the data until a 'trend' could be identified that gave some idea as to probabilities, but it seems kind of fringe, in practical terms.  The satellite was actually moving due to end-of-intended life low-fuel issues, for one thing.

Fascinating though, how they could measure the time the signals would need to travel from airplane to satellite, etc.  I got some idea that given the amount of time until the last 'handshake', the bird would have to be well up fully into either the northern, or down in the southern arc; if north, that, if true, would have put it up in Kazakhstan somewhere - or conversely, roughly where the search has been occurring along the southern arc.

Sounded good, but one still wonders how firm this logarithm distilling really is in terms of accuracy.  As one searcher put it, there is some mounting doubt about ever finding the plane in the southern Indian ocean.

Might it take 77 years to find this one too?  I surely hope not.
- Jeff Neville

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James Champion

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #334 on: October 11, 2014, 08:17:54 AM »

I once work as an engineer for a manufacturer of high-end telemetry receivers used for receiving signals from satellites. The exacting measurement of the doppler shift (carrier offset), AGC (signal strength), and timing delay of a data burst to be acknowledge back (ranging) are all very basic information automatically measured by these systems and recorded. Usually such information is used heavily when a satellite is first launched to precisely measure the orbit and health of the satellite. When thing go wrong it is amazing what they can determine from carefully analyzing the information. The fact that they used such information from the Inmarsat system to determine the position of MH370 is of no surprise to me. Inmarsat first did such post-analysis to help with the disappearance of Air France 447. It is the same type of data that NASA uses to determine the position, speed, and distance of the Voyager probes.
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Monty Fowler

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #335 on: October 14, 2014, 02:13:21 PM »

I don't know if this qualifies as an update, but this gentleman is thinking hijack: http://www.examiner.com/article/mh370-what-really-happened-airlines-head-theorizes-missing-plane-was-hijacked

But again, the question is, Why???

LTM,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 ECSP
Ex-TIGHAR member No. 2189 E C R SP, 1998-2016
 
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JNev

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #336 on: October 14, 2014, 03:41:33 PM »

I don't know if this qualifies as an update, but this gentleman is thinking hijack: http://www.examiner.com/article/mh370-what-really-happened-airlines-head-theorizes-missing-plane-was-hijacked

But again, the question is, Why???

LTM,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 ECSP

Not that I necessarily disagree with the apparent possibility this gent seems to espouse, but given that this is "The Examiner", and not insignificantly that everytime I try to open it the browser freezes... I'm not sure it 'qualifies'.  Never got to read because of the 'brain freeze' thing.
- Jeff Neville

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Monty Fowler

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #337 on: October 14, 2014, 05:59:47 PM »

I think there was something aboard the aircraft - possibly proprietary engineering data on a laptop - that was valuable enough to somebody to justify a sophisticated operation.

A sophisticated operation that included mass murder, because I for one doubt that any of the passengers are still alive.

And operational security on a theft of this magnitude is almost impossible to achieve, especially forever. Unless the mastermind killed all of the accomplices that carried it out, that is ...

LTM,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 ECSP
Ex-TIGHAR member No. 2189 E C R SP, 1998-2016
 
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Mark Appel

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #338 on: February 26, 2015, 05:22:42 PM »

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Craig Romig

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #339 on: February 26, 2015, 05:48:37 PM »

Now this is whacky... but interesting. New theory on Malaysian 370:

http://www.sfgate.com/technology/businessinsider/article/One-of-CNN-s-aviation-experts-thinks-Putin-stole-6103867.php

When this first happened I considered this kind of thing. If it did get hijacked. The passengers are either dead or in captivity.  If they are being held hostage. Sooner or later. One of them will show back up.
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #340 on: February 27, 2015, 06:41:10 AM »

Not all that whacky. I have said from the beginning that this looks more like an abduction than an accident.
- A pilot who takes steps to make aircraft invisible to radar is up to no good.
- A pilot who then changes course is on his way to a new "secret" destination.
- The destination must have a runway long enough to land on and a hangar big enough to hide the plane in.
- There must be people there waiting for him.
- The airport must remote and secure. That means a government/military facility.

This has the earmarks of a highly sophisticated, well-funded, state-sponsored abduction.
But abduction of what?  Not the airplane.  There are easier ways to get a 777.  Not a person.  There was nobody on the airplane that was worth that much trouble.  My best guess is that there was intellectual property (engineering data?) of some kind, possibly on a passenger's laptop, that was worth getting without letting anyone know that you have it. The people and the airplane are expendable.
But who could pull this off?  Putin?  Maybe, but not as a "show of strength."  It doesn't make any sense to stage a show of strength if nobody knows you did it. Putin has shown himself to be bold about taking action he won't own up to (Crimea, Ukraine).
The key is whether it was possible, as this guy claims, to jigger the Inmarsat data to make it look like the plane headed south.
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Tim Collins

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #341 on: February 27, 2015, 07:07:03 AM »

Not all that whacky. I have said from the beginning that this looks more like an abduction than an accident.
- A pilot who takes steps to make aircraft invisible to radar is up to no good.
- A pilot who then changes course is on his way to a new "secret" destination.
- The destination must have a runway long enough to land on and a hangar big enough to hide the plane in.
- There must be people there waiting for him.
- The airport must remote and secure. That means a government/military facility.

This has the earmarks of a highly sophisticated, well-funded, state-sponsored abduction.
But abduction of what?  Not the airplane.  There are easier ways to get a 777.  Not a person.  There was nobody on the airplane that was worth that much trouble.  My best guess is that there was intellectual property (engineering data?) of some kind, possibly on a passenger's laptop, that was worth getting without letting anyone know that you have it. The people and the airplane are expendable.
But who could pull this off?  Putin?  Maybe, but not as a "show of strength."  It doesn't make any sense to stage a show of strength if nobody knows you did it. Putin has shown himself to be bold about taking action he won't own up to (Crimea, Ukraine).
The key is whether it was possible, as this guy claims, to jigger the Inmarsat data to make it look like the plane headed south.

The mind of a conspiracy buff is an awesome thing to behold.

Yes indeed it is.
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #342 on: February 27, 2015, 07:51:56 AM »

The mind of a conspiracy buff is an awesome thing to behold.

Yes indeed it is.

And your explanation of the known events is....???
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Tim Collins

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #343 on: February 27, 2015, 08:22:01 AM »

The mind of a conspiracy buff is an awesome thing to behold.

Yes indeed it is.



And your explanation of the known events is....???


I don't offer one. I know better than that, especially in light of your comment.
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #344 on: February 27, 2015, 10:40:06 AM »

And your explanation of the known events is....??

I don't offer one. I know better than that, especially in light of your comment.

Bravely spoken.

I do not consider myself to be a conspiracy "buff" (seeing a conspiracy behind every event).  In fact, I have been a vocal debunker of the various Japanese Capture theories.
However, conspiracies do happen and, to me, the disappearance of MH370 has all the earmarks.  I expressed my observations and I invite anyone to point out errors in my reasoning.  Such discussions are what this forum is all about.  If you don't want to participate that's fine, but don't denigrate those of us do.
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