Advanced search  
Pages: 1 ... 10 11 [12] 13 14 ... 27   Go Down

Author Topic: Malaysian Flight 370  (Read 391333 times)

JNev

  • T5
  • *****
  • Posts: 778
  • It's a GOOD thing to be in the cornfield...
Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #165 on: April 07, 2014, 07:36:35 AM »

The Atlantic is challenging enough, but that part of the Indian Ocean is extremely difficult (as we all know by now).

I do hope this is a true signal - 2 hours of steady stuff is fairly persuasive.  It would be good to have a real answer - and this is the strongest evidence so far (and far from conclusive still, but something must be banging away out there to produce what was heard by the Aussies).
- Jeff Neville

Former Member 3074R
 
Logged

Kevin Weeks

  • T3
  • ***
  • Posts: 236
Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #166 on: April 07, 2014, 08:15:54 AM »

The Atlantic is challenging enough, but that part of the Indian Ocean is extremely difficult (as we all know by now).

I do hope this is a true signal - 2 hours of steady stuff is fairly persuasive.  It would be good to have a real answer - and this is the strongest evidence so far (and far from conclusive still, but something must be banging away out there to produce what was heard by the Aussies).

*puts on tinfoil hat*

it's the russian/iranian/chinese/somalian/insertgroupofchoicehere submarines pinging away to find the billions of dollars in gold/uranium/missile guidance chips/nuclear weapons plans/insertterroristthreatofchoicehere that were smuggled aboard the plane Man!!

I know a couple of guys who are completely convinced these things MUST be true in order to explain the loss of this plane.... I can only imagine living inside these peoples heads!
Logged

JNev

  • T5
  • *****
  • Posts: 778
  • It's a GOOD thing to be in the cornfield...
Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #167 on: April 07, 2014, 12:32:06 PM »

The Atlantic is challenging enough, but that part of the Indian Ocean is extremely difficult (as we all know by now).

I do hope this is a true signal - 2 hours of steady stuff is fairly persuasive.  It would be good to have a real answer - and this is the strongest evidence so far (and far from conclusive still, but something must be banging away out there to produce what was heard by the Aussies).

*puts on tinfoil hat*

it's the russian/iranian/chinese/somalian/insertgroupofchoicehere submarines pinging away to find the billions of dollars in gold/uranium/missile guidance chips/nuclear weapons plans/insertterroristthreatofchoicehere that were smuggled aboard the plane Man!!

I know a couple of guys who are completely convinced these things MUST be true in order to explain the loss of this plane.... I can only imagine living inside these peoples heads!

LOL!!!

Maybe it is there. 

I'd bet a box of donuts that it was a failed theft / terror hyjacking gone wrong (sad but good) if it is.

...now where'd my shiny hat go...
- Jeff Neville

Former Member 3074R
 
Logged

Dave Ross Wilkinson

  • T1
  • *
  • Posts: 22
Re: Malaysian Flight 370, yet another theory.
« Reply #168 on: April 07, 2014, 04:16:47 PM »

Suppose an electrical failure of some kind was responsible, a progressive failure that first knocked power to the ACARS, then to the transponder, and then to the RADIO.  What would the pilot do?  He is flying around in the middle of the night in a 777 full of passengers, and fuel.  The pilot's first thought might be to turn back, but how to signal ATC? He couldn't just pick the nearest airport that is suitable for a 777 and try to land, unannounced. 

The air lanes are busy at that time of night -- red eyes out of southeast Asia into China, Japan and Europe are popular with business passengers (I am told).  He certainly doesn't want to have a collision, flying around invisible to ATC.

Perhaps (or not) the electrical problem had put out his lights, too.  He might not want to risk a landing with a full load of fuel.  And he can't talk to ATC.  It's  reminiscent of EA. 

So, he might do some calculations and realize that he could land in Australia, perhaps on the edge of one of the deserts, or another smooth spot with little fuel in his tank. 

But a miscalculation of the fuel put him in the Indian Ocean.   

Just a thought.  Nothing nefarious, just a widespread electrical failure.

Dave Wilkinson
 
Logged

Ric Gillespie

  • Executive Director
  • Administrator
  • *
  • Posts: 6098
  • "Do not try. Do or do not. There is no try" Yoda
Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #169 on: April 07, 2014, 04:52:53 PM »

I'm not typed in anything bigger than a DC-3 and I've never flown a turbine-powered aircraft of any description except on a simulator, but I can't image an electrical failure that would defeat the multiple redundant of systems on a modern jetliner and still leave the aircraft flyable - and this aircraft was imminently flyable.  After taking steps that give every appearance of being an intentional effort to disappear, it made course changes that are consistent with a concerted attempt to remain undetected by avoiding Indonesian airspace.  I'm probably more skeptical of conspiracy theories, having seen too many silly ones in the Wonderful World of Amelia, but MH370 stinks.  Somebody was up to no good.  If the wreck is found in southern Indian Ocean, draw a straight line from that point back to when the flight is known to have made its last turn and that's the point where something happened to incapacitate the crew, leaving the plane to continue on auto-pilot until fuel exhaustion.
Logged

Jeff Victor Hayden

  • T5
  • *****
  • Posts: 1387
Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #170 on: April 07, 2014, 06:17:41 PM »

There is an interesting discussion thread here on The Aviation Herald which draws a rather speculative but, given a previous incident "Accident: Egyptair B772 at Cairo on Jul 29th 2011, cockpit fire" has some plausible points to consider.
http://www.avherald.com/h?article=44078aa7&opt=0

Egypt Airs Boeing 777 was production number 71
Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 was production number 404
Malaysian Airlines 777 was apparently NOT part of the batch of 282 Boeing 777s with the fault as identified as the cause of the Egypt Air cockpit fire.

The erratic flight path over Malaysian and Indonesian airspace and the POSSIBLE discovery of MH370 in the Indian Ocean?

To get there it would have had to turned left from its last known verifiable position, 02:15 last contact with military radar, which would also put it on a heading to the nearest airport in Northern Indonesia (was that the intention?) then, "If the wreck is found in southern Indian Ocean, draw a straight line from that point back to when the flight is known to have made its last turn and that's the point where something happened to incapacitate the crew, leaving the plane to continue on auto-pilot until fuel exhaustion."

Finally, if you subtract the distance spent meandering around in Malaysian and Indonesian airspace from the possible straight line fuel consumption range from Kuala Lumpur then the areas of POSSIBLE debris and pings are in the right range for fuel exhaustion. As commented in the thread earlier, if the on-board computer receives no further instructions after being instructed to head to the nearest alternative then it continues to fly that course until told to do otherwise or, fuel the runs out.
"To change course to an emergency airport all a 777 pilot has to do is go to the ALTN page of the FMC and select and execute DIVERT NOW. The aircraft will then turn and fly to the emergency airport, although it won't start a descent until a lower altitude is selected in the MCP."


This must be the place
 
Logged

Greg Daspit

  • TIGHAR member
  • *
  • Posts: 788
Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #171 on: April 07, 2014, 06:27:06 PM »

They flew over Malaysia and didn't avoid its radar.
If the crew smelled an electrical fire could they have turned off everything electrical except what they absolutely thought they needed to fly the plane?
I read they could turn ACARS and the transponder off in the cockpit and pull breakers in the cockpit.
Maybe at some point after flying over Malaysia they avoided land, not radar. Then while cirlcing land, but staying close in case  they had to ditch, the smoke eventually got them and the plane flew until it ran out of fuel.
3971R
 
« Last Edit: April 07, 2014, 06:48:43 PM by Greg Daspit »
Logged

Ric Gillespie

  • Executive Director
  • Administrator
  • *
  • Posts: 6098
  • "Do not try. Do or do not. There is no try" Yoda
Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #172 on: April 07, 2014, 06:56:26 PM »

Maybe at some point after flying over Malaysia they avoided land, not radar.

Why would you do that? 
Wouldn't a water landing in a land plane be worse than any kind of landing on land except in the middle of a city (ala the Hudson ditching)..
Logged

Greg Daspit

  • TIGHAR member
  • *
  • Posts: 788
Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #173 on: April 07, 2014, 07:10:53 PM »

Maybe at some point after flying over Malaysia they avoided land, not radar.

Why would you do that? 
Wouldn't a water landing in a land plane be worse than any kind of landing on land except in the middle of a city (ala the Hudson ditching)..
Smoke limiting a clear view. And it was dark outside. Less likely to plow into something vertical that you can't see if ditching in the water
3971R
 
« Last Edit: April 07, 2014, 07:25:39 PM by Greg Daspit »
Logged

Jeff Victor Hayden

  • T5
  • *****
  • Posts: 1387
Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #174 on: April 07, 2014, 07:16:25 PM »

They flew over Malaysia and didn't avoid its radar.
If the crew smelled an electrical fire could they have turned off everything electrical except what they absolutely thought they needed to fly the plane?
I read they could turn ACARS and the transponder off in the cockpit and pull breakers in the cockpit.
Maybe at some point after flying over Malaysia they avoided land, not radar. Then while cirlcing land, but staying close in case  they had to ditch, the smoke eventually got them and the plane flew until it ran out of fuel.

Some good points Greg.

locating an electrical fire isn't easy when most of the wiring and kit is concealed behind panelling.

In what circumstances would you communicate with the ground to say there was an emergency? In an emergency all pilots are trained in a golden rule: ANC, which is to aviate, navigate, communicate, in that order.

Why fly over water? Is your plane a danger to those on the ground as well? If it's a fire then water is your friend, jungles and trees your enemy. Can you fly the coastline and keep land in touching distance? yes, look at the known flight path. How many alternative airports are in your flight path direction while doing this, three.
This must be the place
 
Logged

Greg Daspit

  • TIGHAR member
  • *
  • Posts: 788
Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #175 on: April 07, 2014, 07:39:04 PM »

Example of a pilot who chose to ditch close to land
Might have turned out better but his engine caught a rock below the water.
3971R
 
Logged

Greg Daspit

  • TIGHAR member
  • *
  • Posts: 788
Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #176 on: April 07, 2014, 08:16:33 PM »



In what circumstances would you communicate with the ground to say there was an emergency? In an emergency all pilots are trained in a golden rule: ANC, which is to aviate, navigate, communicate, in that order.

Why fly over water? Is your plane a danger to those on the ground as well? If it's a fire then water is your friend, jungles and trees your enemy. Can you fly the coastline and keep land in touching distance? yes, look at the known flight path. How many alternative airports
Maybe they did try to communicate. The trouble seemed to happen at a radio transfer point. Maybe in the process of changing frequencies an emergency happened and they did not realize an issue because they were pre occupied with a possible fire. Maybe it was the radio system they chose that was the cause of the electrical problem itself.  Or they assumed the radio was the problem and shut it off first.
3971R
 
Logged

Jeff Victor Hayden

  • T5
  • *****
  • Posts: 1387
Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #177 on: April 07, 2014, 08:42:29 PM »

Example of a pilot who chose to ditch close to land
Might have turned out better but his engine caught a rock below the water.

The pilot in this case had no choice Greg, no fuel left. He did mention to the hijackers that there was insufficient fuel aboard to reach their chosen destination.

"Instead of flying towards Australia, the captain followed the African coastline. The hijackers noticed that land was still visible and forced the pilot to steer east. Leul secretly headed for the Comoro Islands, which lie midway between Madagascar and the African mainland. The plane was nearly out of fuel as it approached the island group, but the hijackers continued to ignore the captain's warnings. Out of options, Leul began to circle the area, hoping to land the plane at the Comoros' main airport. This forced Leul to land at more than 175 knots (324 km/h; 201 mph). Leul tried to make an emergency landing at Prince Said Ibrahim International Airport on Grande Comore, but a fight with the hijackers at the last minute caused him to lose his visual point of reference, leaving him unable to locate the airport. While still fighting with the hijackers, he tried to ditch the aircraft in shallow waters 500 yards (457 m) off Le Galawa Beach Hotel, near Mitsamiouli at the northern end of Grande Comore island. Leul attempted to land parallel with the waves instead of against the waves in an effort to smooth the landing. Seconds prior to contacting the water the aircraft was banked left some ten degrees; the left engine and wingtip struck the water first. The engine acted as a scoop and struck a coral reef, slowing that side of the aircraft quickly, causing the Boeing 767 to violently spin left and break apart. Except for the rear part of the airframe, the broken portions of the fuselage sank rapidly. Island residents and tourists, including a group of scuba divers and some French doctors on vacation, came to the aid of crash survivors. Many passengers died because they inflated their life jackets in the cabin, causing them to be trapped inside by the rising water. This led to future notices about not inflating the vests before exiting the plane.


Reminiscent of the Hudson river ditching in that case but without the 100% result, still,  Capt. Chesley B. "Sully" Sullenberger didn't have hijackers to deal with as well at the same time.

It will be interesting to see what the flight and voice recorders have to say, if they can recover them.
Question? can they be disabled by the crew or when a circuit breaker is pulled?
This must be the place
 
Logged

Monty Fowler

  • T5
  • *****
  • Posts: 1078
  • "The real answer is always the right answer."
Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #178 on: April 07, 2014, 08:53:29 PM »

It will be interesting to see what the flight and voice recorders have to say, if they can recover them.
Question? can they be disabled by the crew or when a circuit breaker is pulled?

Not a systems expert by any means, but, to me, anyone who can disable almost every other electronic tracking and locating device on the 777 can probably figure out a way to try and disable the flight data and voice recorders. Although I'm pretty sure they have multiple redundant systems to keep the working, plus their battery backups.

But ... a voice recorder might not reveal much. I believe the tape or disc has about two hours of recording time and then just records over itself. All the person in control of the aircraft has to do is keep their mouth shut for that length of time. All the investigators would have to go on is cockpit sounds, and it's kind of hard to differentiate what sound is what switch being thrown.

Regardless, this was a deliberate, human-casued event. That is the simplest explanation. As to Why?, well, the human mind can be an awfully scary place.

LTM,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 CER
Ex-TIGHAR member No. 2189 E C R SP, 1998-2016
 
Logged

Greg Daspit

  • TIGHAR member
  • *
  • Posts: 788
Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #179 on: April 07, 2014, 09:04:09 PM »

Example of a pilot who chose to ditch close to land
Might have turned out better but his engine caught a rock below the water.

The pilot in this case had no choice Greg, no fuel left. He did mention to the hijackers that there was insufficient fuel aboard to reach their chosen destination.

It will be interesting to see what the flight and voice recorders have to say, if they can recover them.
Question? can they be disabled by the crew or when a circuit breaker is pulled?
Even knowing he had no fuel he had time to make choices at 20k feet. Crash land on the island,must have rejected it, crash land farther out to sea, must have rejected it, or crash land close to shore. He made his best choice or his "only choice" as he saw it.  Yes, really need the data recorder. In that link I posted the pilot said "One question I keep being asked by friends and family is: "Can the pilots turn off the black box?" The answer is no".
I read the voice recorder may have over recored the early stuff. But even recorded silence is a clue
3971R
 
« Last Edit: April 07, 2014, 09:22:32 PM by Greg Daspit »
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 10 11 [12] 13 14 ... 27   Go Up
 

Copyright 2024 by TIGHAR, a non-profit foundation. No portion of the TIGHAR Website may be reproduced by xerographic, photographic, digital or any other means for any purpose. No portion of the TIGHAR Website may be stored in a retrieval system, copied, transmitted or transferred in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, digital, photographic, magnetic or otherwise, for any purpose without the express, written permission of TIGHAR. All rights reserved.

Contact us at: info@tighar.org • Phone: 610-467-1937 • Membership formwebmaster@tighar.org

Powered by MySQL SMF 2.0.18 | SMF © 2021, Simple Machines Powered by PHP