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Author Topic: Malaysian Flight 370  (Read 391345 times)

Jeff Victor Hayden

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #135 on: March 24, 2014, 02:05:30 PM »

"According to Inmarsat, this involved a totally new way of modelling, which was why it took time.

The company told the BBC the new calculation involved crunching far more data and that engineers spent all weekend looking back at previous Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 flights.

They compared the satellite data from those flights with flight MH370 and were able to work out that it went south."

"In the past day, both Australian and Chinese air force crews have reported spotting debris."

Nothing from the Northern route yet
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Jeff Victor Hayden

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #136 on: March 24, 2014, 02:16:41 PM »

MH370 Malaysia plane: How maths helped find an earlier crash

Statisticians helped locate an Air France plane in 2011 which was missing for two years.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26680633


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manjeet aujla

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #137 on: March 24, 2014, 02:18:08 PM »

Well Ric, with Niku, you are proposing a solution to possibly the most enduring, fascinating mystery of the aircraft era - something which a lot people still find compelling. So your feet ARE going to be held to the fire a bit!

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JNev

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #138 on: March 24, 2014, 02:25:39 PM »

I am by no means an expert on surveillance - I just respect Inmarsat's capabilities, and what they say. Their data-set and analysis, I think, is most credible. They also ran this 'new type of analysis' , by a peer review group, and have also  published some of their 'new' methodology, which will be undoubtedly critiqued  by more experts.

The malaysian PM bases his statement seemingly on inmarsat data and analysis,  and so is going out on a limb a bit. There may be other data given to him in confidence, which they don't want to release, and that makes them sure of the south route. The 'idiot artifact' in this case is going to be the actual debris field.

The parallel with AE is, at least, the lessons that the current searchers could follow from the AE search. In hindsight, things always become clearer. When they were searching for AE, like here, time was not on their side, and resources were far more limited. They did have to make certain assumptions in the heat of the moment, just because, like here, with limited resources, they had to concentrate on the most likely places to search. Similarly, in this search, they have to necessarily make assumptions/speculate, maybe on incomplete info, so that the planes and ships etc.,they do have are used most effectively.

So, when I was using words like 'improbable', I was trying to follow why the searchers were concentrating on the south route, which seemed logical. The northern route clearly went over central india, and if the indians had missed it, it went over northern afg-pak borders areas, where we would prolly have caught it, as we own the airspace over afghanistan.

In hindsight, if we could turn the clock back, and know what we know today of the Niku hypothesis, esp the radio signals which have been strongly shown to be credible, we would say "forget everything else - send all the planes and ships to niku". From what I can remember on the AE search,  if Lambrecht, by design or happy coincidence, had overflown Niku 2-3 days earlier, and/or the tide had been low, the plane would have been out in the open. But in the pressure cooker environment they were in, like here, they had to speculate and reason a bit, from the data they did have. Time was running out -like here it is still running out to find the blackbox.

Excellent comments and summary here Manjeet, thanks, I enjoy your sharing of excellent thought.  You nailed the real pressures that come to bear on these things and the PM of Malaysia has an agonizing responsibility to help families find closure, and short of having debris in-hand it is always a numbers game.  What is nearly certain beyond measure is that the passengers did not survive, no matter the circumstance - and this is the strongest position Malaysia has been able to assemble to-date.

Like Ric, however, 'the numbers' are fraught with peril in many eyes, especially those of us who don't understand the technology involved here so well.  So I take Inmarsat's pencil-sharpening with a small grain of salt for now and will feel better once something definitive has been found.  Call that ignorance if one will - I certainly confess ignorance where this tracking technology is concerned.

My thoughts go out to those who lost family and friends aboard that flight - at least they have something as closure that is based on the best that can be produced so far - compassion calls for that, I think.
- Jeff Neville

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Jeff Victor Hayden

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #139 on: March 24, 2014, 02:40:38 PM »

"Some 26 countries have have been involved since the plane disappeared, including Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia, New Zealand, China, the US, South Korea, Japan, the UAE and the UK.
Australia's HMAS Surprise is currently the only ship in the southern search area, although ten Chinese ships and six Malaysian vessels, with three ship-borne helicopters, are en route and expected to arrive from 25 March.
In addition to the Australian and Chinese aircraft operating from Perth a further 3 planes - 2 from Japan and one from the United Arab Emirates - have been sent to assist.
The US and UK are also contributing resources."

The International response and International cooperation has been an inspiration in the progress of the search so far.


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Steve Lee

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #140 on: March 24, 2014, 05:43:49 PM »

"According to Inmarsat, this involved a totally new way of modelling, which was why it took time.

The company told the BBC the new calculation involved crunching far more data and that engineers spent all weekend looking back at previous Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 flights.

They compared the satellite data from those flights with flight MH370 and were able to work out that it went south."

"In the past day, both Australian and Chinese air force crews have reported spotting debris."

Nothing from the Northern route yet

It sounds like Inmarsat had the good sense to do as Bruce Thomas suggested and ground truth their model.  So, I think this probably takes care of Ric's concern ("what if this never-before-used type of analysis is wrong?").

I am still wondering if part of the airliner's flight was spotted on JORN. If it was, probably we'll never know...
« Last Edit: March 24, 2014, 06:15:13 PM by Steve Lee »
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Jeff Victor Hayden

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #141 on: March 24, 2014, 06:22:12 PM »

The graphic suggests that the NTSB calculated possible paths based on data that is not public and that the NTSB were able to assign probabilities to those paths. As far as I know, neither Inmarsat, the NTSB nor the Australian government (or it's agencies) have made public the data or method of calculating these tracks.

The graphic below suggests several Inmarsat pings were used (the example shows 01:11, 02:11, 04:11, 05:11, 06:11, 07:11 and 08:11 but these are probably speculation).

So far as is publicly known, there was no ping at 09:11 or later which suggests the flight ended between 08:11 and 09:11. This is broadly consistent with maximum fuel range of the aircraft. The labelled NTSB solutions suggest that NTSB calculated that no other constant speed (and heading?) tracks fit the data.




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Bruce Thomas

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #142 on: March 24, 2014, 06:37:15 PM »

I am still wondering if part of the airliner's flight was spotted on JORN. If it was, probably we'll never know...

That's a very interesting find, Steve. The western-most coverage shown in the Wikipedia article looks like it overlaps the track shown in the NTSB map shown in Jeff Victor's post. Who knows, perhaps those JORN "hounds" were awake and listening ... let's hope if they were, someday we'll hear their baying.  I'll bet if they did bay, that Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbot has heard them!  ;)

LTM,

Bruce
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« Last Edit: March 24, 2014, 09:10:40 PM by Bruce Thomas »
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Jeff Victor Hayden

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #143 on: March 24, 2014, 08:04:02 PM »

I am still wondering if part of the airliner's flight was spotted on JORN. If it was, probably we'll never know...

That's a very interesting find, Steve. The western-most coverage shown in the Wikipedia article looks like it overlaps the track shown in the NTSB map shown in Jeff Victor's post. Who knows, perhaps those JORN "hounds" were awake and listening ... let's hope if they were, someday we'll hear their baying.  I'll bet if they did bay, that Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbot has heard them!  ;)

Seems a distinct possibility Bruce

"The JORN network is operated by No. 1 Radar Surveillance Unit RAAF (1RSU). Data from the JORN sites is fed to the JORN Coordination Centre at RAAF Base Edinburgh where it is passed on to other agencies and military units. Officially the system allows the Australian Defence Force to observe all air and sea activity north of Australia to distances of 3000 km. This encompasses all of Java, Irian Jaya, Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands, and halfway across the Indian Ocean. Other sources put the range at 4000 km from the Australian coastline,[23] as far away as Singapore.[24]

The JORN is so sensitive it is able to track planes as small as a Cessna 172 taking off and landing in East Timor 2600 km away. Current research is anticipated to increase its sensitivity by a factor of ten beyond this level. It is also reportedly able to detect stealth aircraft, as typically these are designed only to avoid detection by microwave radar.[6] Project DUNDEE[25] was a cooperative research project, with American missile defence research, into using JORN to detect missiles.[26] The JORN is anticipated to play a role in future Missile Defense Agency initiatives, detecting and tracking missile launches in Asia.[27]"


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JNev

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #144 on: March 25, 2014, 01:22:40 PM »

JORN - good find, Steve - cool stuff.
- Jeff Neville

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Kevin Weeks

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #145 on: March 25, 2014, 02:31:21 PM »

was just reading about the "number crunching" done to track the plane... interesting stuff. appears they used the doppler effect to tell if the data sent from the plane was compressed a bit (heading towards the satellite) or decompressed a bit (heading away from the satellite) I'm sure thats a very dumbed down version of it but it is easy to comprehend.

this wasn't from the CNN article, this is my own little addition:

The data sent from the plane (or from any device, your computer for instance) is not sent in one big single batch, it in a series of "packets". By determining the time between packets they were able to determine the doppler effect.
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Tim Gard

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #146 on: March 25, 2014, 03:47:13 PM »

MH370 Malaysia plane: How maths helped find an earlier crash

Statisticians helped locate an Air France plane in 2011 which was missing for two years.


They also found wreckage - the vertical stabiliser ... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_447

Off the western coast of Australia they have only found freight palates.
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Tim Gard

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #147 on: March 25, 2014, 04:54:30 PM »

This loss is still pretty creepy.

Agreed.
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Jeff Victor Hayden

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #148 on: March 25, 2014, 06:54:23 PM »

MH370 Malaysia plane: How maths helped find an earlier crash

Statisticians helped locate an Air France plane in 2011 which was missing for two years.


They also found wreckage - the vertical stabiliser ... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_447

Off the western coast of Australia they have only found freight palates.

Tim, they did indeed find debris from Air France flight 447 floating on the surface, most noticeably the big vertical stabiliser (composite material construction) and, un-inflated life jackets and various other objects that were buoyant. However, that was little help in actually locating the aircraft wreckage, which took another two years and mega bucks before they located it. I have a feeling Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 is going to take even longer due to the time it has taken to find floating debris and, the distance to the nearest land. Currents and wind have had a long time to move the debris away from any impact area.
The Boeing 777 has quite a lot of composite material construction so it is quite possible that some of it is buoyant enough to stay visible. Virtually all airliners carry cargo be it passengers baggage or freight on/in cargo pallets, it's how they justify losing your baggage.

"There have been several sightings of debris, but none has yet been confirmed as being linked to the plane.
Malaysia's acting Transport Minister Hishammuddin Hussein has said that, as a result of the latest analysis, the area of search has narrowed from 2.24m sq nautical miles to 469,407 sq nautical miles.
Operations in a northern corridor - one of two vast areas where the plane might have ended its journey - have been called off, he added."
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JNev

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #149 on: March 26, 2014, 10:43:21 AM »

This loss is still pretty creepy.

Agreed.

An interesting article from an old friend who is very tuned in to such information.

Read it for what it is worth, just passing it on.  I am always struck - truth truly is stranger than fiction often enough.

- Jeff Neville

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« Last Edit: March 26, 2014, 10:49:33 AM by Jeffrey Neville »
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