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Author Topic: Malaysian Flight 370  (Read 391343 times)

Greg Daspit

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #120 on: March 23, 2014, 05:50:53 PM »

Change in radio frequency may have caused communication problems?
Where have we heard that before?
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #121 on: March 23, 2014, 06:19:29 PM »

Change in radio frequency may have caused

"All right, good night." sounds like a hand-off to the next controller. If you get no response on the new frequency you return to the old frequency and say that you are "unable" on the new frequency.  The controller then gives you a different frequency to try.  All very standard.

I've been appalled at the bad reasoning demonstrated by "the authorities" and my fellow talking heads on television. It's 1937 all over again.
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Steve Lee

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #122 on: March 23, 2014, 06:41:08 PM »

A New York Time article by Philip Pan and Kirk Semple published yesterday (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/23/world/asia/a-routine-flight-till-both-routine-and-flight-vanish.html?hp&_r=0 ) makes it clear that investigators have 'circles of position' for several hourly Inmarsat pings.

"Inmarsat technicians identified what appeared to be a series of fleeting “pings” between Flight 370, a satellite over the Indian Ocean and a ground station in Perth, Australia.

The signals — seven of them transmitted at one-hour intervals — were an important clue, because they could have come only from an antenna receiving power from the plane itself. But while they carried a unique code identifying the aircraft as Flight 370, the signals contained no positioning or other data that could indicate where the plane was when it sent them.

By Sunday afternoon, a team of Inmarsat engineers set to work using the principles of trigonometry to determine the distance between the satellite and the plane at the time of each ping, and then to calculate two rough flight paths. The plane, they concluded, had turned again. But it may have then traveled in more or less a straight line, heading north over countries likely to have picked it up on radar, or south toward the Indian Ocean and Antarctica.
"

The Inmarsat data is consistent with the plane flying straight south to a latitude below 30 South, thus the 'circles of position' must have been increasing in radius during the last several hours, because the Inmarsat 'circles of position' are centered on the equator (the satellite is in geosynchronous orbit ) and thus the plane was flying away from the spot the satellite was centered over.

This seems to rule out the idea that the plane landed somewhere and continued to be pinged for several hours from a fixed position on the ground.

I imagine it also rules out the hypothesis that the Malaysian plane 'shadowed' a commercial flight.

To me, the idea that the plane ended up in Iran or Pakistan seems only a tad more plausible than the idea that there are underwater banjos off of Nikumaroro. ::)




« Last Edit: March 23, 2014, 07:01:37 PM by Steve Lee »
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manjeet aujla

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #123 on: March 23, 2014, 08:00:23 PM »

The several inmarsat pings have been plotted, and 2 possible paths identified, as shown in this link..

http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-370.html

The north one goes clear over central india. It is prolly improbable that the indians did not see this on their primary, and announce it, if the plane went that way. Also with the air coverage we have over there, we would have seen it when it flew over pakistan and afghanistan. So that leaves the south route as only alternative (with the info currently available.)

This is inmarsat data, so it has high degree of credibility. 

I hope we have some US or russian subs listening for the pings down there. 
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Steve Lee

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #124 on: March 23, 2014, 08:34:38 PM »

Thanks for posting that Manjeet.  Nice to see science-based analysis rather than pure speculation.  That's what we all come here for, I hope! :-X
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Monty Fowler

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #125 on: March 24, 2014, 04:56:25 AM »

I hope we have some US or russian subs listening for the pings down there.

I hope we have more technology that is listening, too ... but that brings up the gooey question of national security (a.k.a. hide the subs/bombers/tanks/etc.)

Even if the US does have the hardware to narrow the search, will it publicly bandy that information about? Not that very much of what our military does these days is truly secret, but the Cold War mentality lingers on with many who work in our armed forces. Where Rule No. 1 is "Tell'm nothing." I hope I am wrong about that, but I've ceased to be amazed by what our government hides in the name of "national security."

LTM,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 CER
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JNev

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #126 on: March 24, 2014, 07:21:45 AM »

I truly hope that the bird is found and agree that the 'sensible' thing is 'lost at sea'...

But we common folk still lack hard evidence, folks, EITHER way... all this stuff about 'lost at sea' being talked about here is just as much up in the air as any prospect in terms of 'hard facts', sorry.

What I've offered about landfall is not of my own mind.  It's been offered and is still being considered as a serious concern among those with far more assets than I have access to.  It is not a popular or fun prospect.  Nor, now being suspected by the right folks, is it really much of a threat as I understand it - you can't use something like that to ill ends if it will be intercepted effectively, and it likely would be.

Anyway, who knows... a ship is approaching the latest suspect area in the Indian Ocean.  Perhaps they will find sad evidence that will end all the speculation.  Above all else I hope for closure among the families and friends of those who lost so much.
- Jeff Neville

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« Last Edit: March 24, 2014, 07:35:36 AM by Jeffrey Neville »
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #127 on: March 24, 2014, 07:36:08 AM »

Nice to see science-based analysis rather than pure speculation.

Not quite.  Manjeet says the plane probably would have been detected on radar if it went north, then says "that leaves the south route as the only alternative." He's treating a "maybe" as an established fact and drawing a firm conclusion.  The same mistake was made in 1937. The radio signals could only be sent from an airplane on land. No airplane was seen on land, therefore the signals must have been bogus.
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JNev

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #128 on: March 24, 2014, 07:48:50 AM »

Nice to see science-based analysis rather than pure speculation.

Not quite.  Manjeet says the plane probably would have been detected on radar if it went north, then says "that leaves the south route as the only alternative." He's treating a "maybe" as an established fact and drawing a firm conclusion.  The same mistake was made in 1937. The radio signals could only be sent from an airplane on land. No airplane was seen on land, therefore the signals must have been bogus.

I respect Manjeet's thoughts a great deal and he knows far more about tracking than I ever will, I'm sure.  I'm equally as sure of what Ric has said - that there remain significant 'maybes' here, including that 'maybe' the bird would have been seen flying northwest.  And 'maybe not', too - for many reasons that I'm sure Manjeet would likely agree with as possible.  I respect that we can speak in terms of 'probables', and that 'maybes' are not absolute.

It is not incredible that a crew could deliberately seek a shadow, for instance, to avoid detection in a relatively lightly scanned area of the world during those hours.  And primary radar is a funny thing - unless one is really looking for / expecting a target, it well may be missed - that much I understand.

But how can something as big and shiny as a 777 be lost?  How can something like an Electra be lost, especially with an able navigator aboard...

And yes, there are startling parallels now to 1937 when able people were trying to make the best of radio signals - and finally found compelling reasons (rightly or wrongly, likely the latter IMO) to abadon that information.  Here now we struggle with the possible whisperings of an ill-fated jet to know what happened, and yet they still tell us so little.

One day such craft will carry an ELT package that the crew cannot molest - and that can be activated remotely from the ground if such an event is suspected, and that upon impact will not only 'go off', but be detached and float... seems so obvious now I wonder why it hasn't been done for decades.
- Jeff Neville

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Jeff Victor Hayden

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #129 on: March 24, 2014, 10:08:46 AM »

Sadly the news is as feared...


Flight MH370 'crashed in south Indian Ocean' - Malaysia PM



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26716572
This must be the place
 
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #130 on: March 24, 2014, 11:18:12 AM »

Sadly the news is as feared...


Flight MH370 'crashed in south Indian Ocean' - Malaysia PM

"The Malaysian prime minister said Inmarsat had been able to shed further light on the plane's flight path by performing further calculations on the MH370 data "using a type of analysis never before used in an investigation of this sort".

And what if this never-before-used type of analysis is wrong? I'll accept that the plane crashed in the ocean when debris is recovered and conclusively identified.  I'm holding their feet to the same fire mine have been held to.

If we can reach firm conclusions about MH370's fate based on the analysis of data we can do the same for NR16020.
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Tim Gard

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #131 on: March 24, 2014, 11:40:49 AM »

Sadly the news is as feared...


Flight MH370 'crashed in south Indian Ocean' - Malaysia PM

And what if this never-before-used type of analysis is wrong? I'll accept that the plane crashed in the ocean when debris is recovered and conclusively identified.  I'm holding their feet to the same fire mine have been held to.

If we can reach firm conclusions about MH370's fate based on the analysis of data we can do the same for NR16020.

I agree with Ric.

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Dan Swift

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #132 on: March 24, 2014, 12:56:07 PM »

Exactly Ric! 
Time for some body else's 'toes to burn'.
It might be a interesting wager to bet on who finds which plane first? 
Dan   
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Bruce Thomas

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #133 on: March 24, 2014, 01:53:54 PM »

The old saying goes, "The proof is in the pudding."

What I'd like to see is a slew of instances of data from flights, with the same analysis done on several hourly pings and predicting where the flights ended up. Can the pings of a Malaysia Airlines flight from Kuala Lumpur to New Delhi absolutely confirm that the flight ended up reasonably close to New Delhi and nowhere else? It would seem to me that there will be nearly always two possibile flight paths, both ending equidistant from Kuala Lumpur, and hour after hour crossing the same concentric rings based on the satellite location. My own crude look at such rings leads me to suggest an alternate landing area somewhere in the South Indian Ocean somewhere between Australia and Madagascar.

Excluding that other point along the northern arc of the concentric ring for MH370 seems based largely on the hounds (military air defense watchdogs) not barking at an intruding flight, assuming that the hounds were awake and had their radars on and effectively operated.

But wouldn't the world go berserk at some point in the future (77 years?) when in the high Himalayas a Boeing 777-200ER with Malaysia Airlines livery were to be found crumpled under the snowpack?!
LTM,

Bruce
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manjeet aujla

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Re: Malaysian Flight 370
« Reply #134 on: March 24, 2014, 01:56:29 PM »

I am by no means an expert on surveillance - I just respect Inmarsat's capabilities, and what they say. Their data-set and analysis, I think, is most credible. They also ran this 'new type of analysis' , by a peer review group, and have also  published some of their 'new' methodology, which will be undoubtedly critiqued  by more experts.

The malaysian PM bases his statement seemingly on inmarsat data and analysis,  and so is going out on a limb a bit. There may be other data given to him in confidence, which they don't want to release, and that makes them sure of the south route. The 'idiot artifact' in this case is going to be the actual debris field.

The parallel with AE is, at least, the lessons that the current searchers could follow from the AE search. In hindsight, things always become clearer. When they were searching for AE, like here, time was not on their side, and resources were far more limited. They did have to make certain assumptions in the heat of the moment, just because, like here, with limited resources, they had to concentrate on the most likely places to search. Similarly, in this search, they have to necessarily make assumptions/speculate, maybe on incomplete info, so that the planes and ships etc.,they do have are used most effectively.

So, when I was using words like 'improbable', I was trying to follow why the searchers were concentrating on the south route, which seemed logical. The northern route clearly went over central india, and if the indians had missed it, it went over northern afg-pak borders areas, where we would prolly have caught it, as we own the airspace over afghanistan.

In hindsight, if we could turn the clock back, and know what we know today of the Niku hypothesis, esp the radio signals which have been strongly shown to be credible, we would say "forget everything else - send all the planes and ships to niku". From what I can remember on the AE search,  if Lambrecht, by design or happy coincidence, had overflown Niku 2-3 days earlier, and/or the tide had been low, the plane would have been out in the open. But in the pressure cooker environment they were in, like here, they had to speculate and reason a bit, from the data they did have. Time was running out -like here it is still running out to find the blackbox.
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