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[Greg Daspit]

Based on where they are looking so hard, even before they saw debris, it appears they think the plane flew on, uncontrolled, until it ran out of fuel. See sketch

[manjeet aujla]

The fire theory was popular for a couple of days, esp on google+, but when the inmarsat arcs came along, it could not explain those, except by saying that the autopilot took over and the plane flew on till fuel ran out. So this theory still has life.

With this, the plane b-box will be found, and the what and how may be answered. But the answer of 'Why'  is likely to be murky though.

[Greg Daspit]

The co-pilot said "all right good night" after new coordinates entered.
So the question is why didn’t he say something and why didn’t Air traffic control ask him why he changed course?
Did he enter coordinates and not execute them yet?
I can see where they may have smelled something odd and entered in the coordinates back to nearest airport just in case but did not hit execute until they knew more.
Maybe he says "good night" because all they had was a suspicion at that time. Then later the fire starts shutting down circuits and they also may shut them off.
The fire could also cause toxic fumes and not a lot of structural damage.

[Tim Mellon]

Based on where they are looking so hard, even before they saw debris, it appears they think the plane flew on, uncontrolled, until it ran out of fuel. See sketch

Greg, how do we know how much fuel was onboard? I have seen no definitive evidence of the takeoff fuel load. Or is that extra distance just how much longer the aircraft could have been aloft without sending another hourly ping?

Maybe their destination was Kerguelen, although I think there is no airport there at all.

[Greg Daspit]

Based on where they are looking so hard, even before they saw debris, it appears they think the plane flew on, uncontrolled, until it ran out of fuel. See sketch

Greg, how do we know how much fuel was onboard? I have seen no definitive evidence of the takeoff fuel load. Or is that extra distance just how much longer the aircraft could have been aloft without sending another hourly ping?

Maybe their destination was Kerguelen, although I think there is no airport there at all.

I don't know. I did see on CNN that they did not take on extra fuel and some expert said they likely had enough for the trip plus 20% or so. The sketch is my own. I'm just showing the logic in looking there. Even if you don't know the exact fuel, speed or height, the method of intersecting the arc and an estimated flight distance would narrow the search to a smaller area. What I'm thinking is they also allowed for heading drift, currents over the past days, and variance in fuel estimates and other factors to give some priority to the search area. I drew an x but Im sure there are other factors in where they are searching and the area is bigger to allow for them. I'm just showing a simplified sketch.

Some lessons from history is countries don't like to give away their secrets. The British used to send search planes for German subs even though they knew where they would be based on Ultra. They just wanted the Germans to think they were spotted by a search plane so as not to reveal they broke their code. So they made sure the sub saw the search plane before attacking.

I think there may also be some tech involved that we may not be aware of.

[Jeffrey Pearce]

What is the time of day of the last heard transmission-I don't mean voice-that is identified as coming from the missing plane? What is known or can be estimated about the time of day when the plane landed. This assumes that it did land.

If the time of day is known or can be reliably estimated it would be interesting to look at a satellite visual photograph to see the areas where there was enough light from the sun to afford whoever is flying the plane a safe landing. In other words the areas that were just coming out of darkness into the light. If light was necessary to land the pilot could have been waiting for this condition to exist before landing.

[Monty Fowler]

One thing that concerns me - now that it looks like they might be narrowing down the search area - how many days can the locater pinger on the black box last? I seem to remember it's only 7-10 days, but can't find a specific reference.

LTM,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 CER

[manjeet aujla]

The battery on the blackbox lasts about 30 days. They have dropped sonar buoys to listen for it.

[Dan Swift]

They are already about half way through the life span of the batteries in the boxes. 

[Laura Gridley]

Ric's on CNN right now being interviewed about this flight. Good job Ric!

[C.W. Herndon]

How is this for an interesting screen shot? I wonder what it could mean.

[George Lam]

How is this for an interesting screen shot? I wonder what it could mean.

A placeholder, perhaps?  They're toying with us... just look at that balsa wood full scale model aircraft carrier they're building.

Actually this might be a symbol for "landing strip here" or "airport" as a visual means.  The wingspan doesn't match the 777.

Nice find though

[Monty Fowler]

... just look at that balsa wood full scale model aircraft carrier they're building.

Now, now, let's give credit where credit is due. It's not balsa wood ... but has anyone besides me noticed the sudden worldwide shortage of grey Lego blocks???

LTM, who knows that Lego blocks float quite well,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 CER

[JNev]

How is this for an interesting screen shot? I wonder what it could mean.

...wonder what's under the large shelter to the right of the 'sand plane' in your screen shot, Woody?

Why would Tehran hide a stolen 777 in Iran and risk a major fuss laid on them?  All they need is a proxy, someone rented for a bit to help out in a tribal region where renegades have been known to disappear for years, right under the population's nose... it's probably in Pakistan...

As to the Indian Ocean, just think - TIGHAR's found far more random junk washed up on Niku than possible Earhart artifacts - a fact of modern life in the international village: dishwashers and microwaves floating inside lost shipping containers can clog the seaways.

Egad, and I just took down "how'd they lose such a big, shiny thing" as my little banner...

[Ric Gillespie]

Another parallel with the Earhart mystery.  Blame the usual suspects - whoever we don't like at the moment.  No evidence. No problem.