Advanced search  
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 ... 10   Go Down

Author Topic: The most perplexing issues  (Read 157720 times)

Bill de Creeft

  • TIGHAR member
  • *
  • Posts: 63
Re: The most perplexing issues
« Reply #15 on: July 02, 2013, 09:22:22 PM »

mmm.
It's more simple than that, for me...
You are ignoring a lot of evidence (I'm not calling it 'proof') that I believe in...so I mainly don't subscribe to your 'crashed on the reef' theory.
The pictures we are waiting with bated breath to see are new found ones of the island taken in 1938...when AE and FN would have landed on the Island (if they did) and before other people arrived on the island...40 pictures newly found and not yet studied.
All kinds of things to look for !!
I don't believe that Betty was imagining things when she says she heard AE's radio calls ...My own thoughts on all that are back a ways in the forum threads...
So I am just going to hold my tongue, rather than go around in circles, and hope that a lot of conjecture will be avoided when we get some new answers.
I see things in the underwater views that intrigue me, and I see things in the brush that intrigued me until I saw further pictures that disappointed me!
She wrote her last name with a big looping "E" and that spelled in white coral rocks pulls me more than anything else!!
I have been following this for 75 years, and it tires me to posit theories...and my definition of "inconceivable" aligns with that of Martin X's ...
I think the reason she was so far south is because she followed the heading that FN gave her...and that she was where she was she said she was...just didn't have a name for it...and as I have said before; I am comforted that she didn't sink into a cold dark sea...but had her chance at survival, if only people had listened to her.
Nothing personal in any of this; no-one is die-ing now, and we are just trying to solve a mystery...it will be solved, and the solving is fascinating and it is fun to follow all the thoughts and to make the acquaintance of a new circle of kindred souls!

Bill
Two more weeks or so, (maybe)...!?!
Bill de Creeft

Tighar Member #4131
 
Logged

Lloyd Manley

  • T1
  • *
  • Posts: 29
Re: The most perplexing issues
« Reply #16 on: July 02, 2013, 10:29:32 PM »

You are ignoring a lot of evidence (I'm not calling it 'proof') that I believe in...so I mainly don't subscribe to your 'crashed on the reef' theory.
Can you describe the 'crashed on the reef' theory? I'm not familiar with it. At this point I'm asking questions; namely, is there any evidentiary reason why the crew couldn't have been seriously injured and still operated the radio, even if off of battery power alone? Could the injuries have rendered them non-ambulatory but still able to operate that radio? What has TIGHER (or others) done to eliminate that possibility?

I don't believe that Betty was imagining things when she says she heard AE's radio calls ...
I don't either.

I know everyone is excited about the photos. Maybe they'll give some clues up, but I'm not expecting any smoking guns.
Logged

manjeet aujla

  • T1
  • *
  • Posts: 41
Re: The most perplexing issues
« Reply #17 on: July 06, 2013, 08:20:15 PM »

Regarding the original question, there are reams of writings and conjectures here on every conceivable scenario of what could have happened. For instance why she would turn towards Gardner at all.  Most of these are answered somewhere, in some paper, in this site, in a logical, plausible way. The sheer volume of the research done is huge. The radio transmissions, for instance, have been analysed in detail. The effort to address all questions, irrespective of where the conclusions may lead, is the main reason why I believe in tighar's work. Newspaper stories raising questions do not impress me anymore, the more I have delved into the detailed material present here. ( Man, it sounds like I have really partaken of the kool-aid....lol)
Logged

Ric Gillespie

  • Executive Director
  • Administrator
  • *
  • Posts: 6098
  • "Do not try. Do or do not. There is no try" Yoda
Re: The most perplexing issues
« Reply #18 on: July 06, 2013, 08:49:40 PM »

Could the injuries have rendered them non-ambulatory but still able to operate that radio? What has TIGHER (or others) done to eliminate that possibility?

We've investigated the story that the remains of a castaway were found who was suspected at the time of being Amelia Earhart. We found evidence that proves that story to be true and we have found the place on the island where the bones were found.  We've recovered artifacts from that site that support the hypothesis that the castaway was indeed Earhart.  That doesn't eliminate the possibility that you describe ( I don't know what would) but it makes it seem highly unlikely.

 
I know everyone is excited about the photos. Maybe they'll give some clues up, but I'm not expecting any smoking guns.

I agree.  It's hard to imagine anything we could see in an aerial photo that would be a smoking gun, except maybe a recognizable Amelia Earhart waving from the beach.  I do hope to see some evidence of the presence of the castaway whom we know was there, although probably already dead.  Some sign of a second campsite would be something we could check out on the ground and see if there were more artifacts there. 
Logged

Lloyd Manley

  • T1
  • *
  • Posts: 29
Re: The most perplexing issues
« Reply #19 on: July 06, 2013, 09:40:44 PM »

Could the injuries have rendered them non-ambulatory but still able to operate that radio? What has TIGHER (or others) done to eliminate that possibility?

We've investigated the story that the remains of a castaway were found who was suspected at the time of being Amelia Earhart. We found evidence that proves that story to be true and we have found the place on the island where the bones were found.  We've recovered artifacts from that site that support the hypothesis that the castaway was indeed Earhart.  That doesn't eliminate the possibility that you describe ( I don't know what would) but it makes it seem highly unlikely.

 
I know everyone is excited about the photos. Maybe they'll give some clues up, but I'm not expecting any smoking guns.

I agree.  It's hard to imagine anything we could see in an aerial photo that would be a smoking gun, except maybe a recognizable Amelia Earhart waving from the beach.  I do hope to see some evidence of the presence of the castaway whom we know was there, although probably already dead.  Some sign of a second campsite would be something we could check out on the ground and see if there were more artifacts there.

Ric,

One of the more perplexing issues to me is this question of the 281 message. It seems to comport with a latitude measure made at the site of the remains if we assume FN was referring to the equator in the usual nm measure. I know this could be a lengthy discussion, but how fragile are the chronometers? Could they have been lost or could they simply have "lost" too much time?

Again, if its not too long of an answer, can you tell us the process for getting a latitude measure without chronometers and, say, a typical, mariner's sextant?

Thanks,
Lloyd
Logged

Ric Gillespie

  • Executive Director
  • Administrator
  • *
  • Posts: 6098
  • "Do not try. Do or do not. There is no try" Yoda
Re: The most perplexing issues
« Reply #20 on: July 07, 2013, 10:18:10 AM »

One of the more perplexing issues to me is this question of the 281 message. It seems to comport with a latitude measure made at the site of the remains if we assume FN was referring to the equator in the usual nm measure.

The 281 message was heard early on the morning of July 5 and, if genuine, had to have been sent from the aircraft.  Everything we know suggests that the airplane was parked on the reef at the west end of the atoll.  The place where the remains were found in 1940 is 281 miles from the equator.  That place is roughly 4 miles away from where the plane was.  I don't think it's reasonable to think that AE and/or FN was camping 4 miles away at that time.  If "281 north" was intended to refer to the distance to the equator in nautical miles, the estimate was a bit off - but that's certainly possible.

I know this could be a lengthy discussion, but how fragile are the chronometers? Could they have been lost or could they simply have "lost" too much time?
Again, if its not too long of an answer, can you tell us the process for getting a latitude measure without chronometers and, say, a typical, mariner's sextant?

I'm not an expert on chronometers or celestial navigation but I would imagine that chronometers are fairly delicate and. without a recent time check, could easily be a few seconds off.  It is also my understanding that a navigator doesn't really need a chronometer to get a rough approximation of latitude at local noon.
Logged

Lloyd Manley

  • T1
  • *
  • Posts: 29
Re: The most perplexing issues
« Reply #21 on: July 07, 2013, 08:41:27 PM »

It is also my understanding that a navigator doesn't really need a chronometer to get a rough approximation of latitude at local noon.

Thanks Ric, same here. Latitude should be no problem. Lloyd
Logged

Adam Marsland

  • T2
  • **
  • Posts: 88
Re: The most perplexing issues
« Reply #22 on: July 08, 2013, 12:05:28 AM »

The 281 message is possibly THE most baffling clue in the case, since all signs point to be it being legit, and yet it doesn't make any sense at all.

Ric -- do you have a theory, even a totally speculative one, about what that message was trying to import?
Logged

Lloyd Manley

  • T1
  • *
  • Posts: 29
Re: The most perplexing issues
« Reply #23 on: July 08, 2013, 02:03:49 AM »

The 281 message is possibly THE most baffling clue in the case, since all signs point to be it being legit, and yet it doesn't make any sense at all.

Ric -- do you have a theory, even a totally speculative one, about what that message was trying to import?

Adam,

What are the prevailing currents in the sea around Gardner? I know the currents close-in, but what are the general currents in that area?

Lloyd
Logged

Christophe Blondel

  • TIGHAR member
  • *
  • Posts: 23
Re: The most perplexing issues
« Reply #24 on: July 30, 2013, 06:04:57 AM »

The 281 message is possibly THE most baffling clue in the case, since all signs point to be it being legit, and yet it doesn't make any sense at all.

Ric -- do you have a theory, even a totally speculative one, about what that message was trying to import?

In 2011 I put forward a theory, in a thread named "A poorly keyed 281 N", which you will still find at the bottom of "Radio reflections" (Ric was kind enough not to find it too speculative). In short words: since this "281 N" was received in "poorly keyed" Morse code, we must consider the hypothesis there was no "281 N" actually sent on the air, but something that unfortunately sounded like that in Morse code . Please have a look at the original thread for an explicit suggestion.

A question not yet clear for me is whether the "N" was received explicitly as "NORTH" of just letter "N", which would make a difference. Does anybody know?

Christophe Blondel
Logged

Ric Gillespie

  • Executive Director
  • Administrator
  • *
  • Posts: 6098
  • "Do not try. Do or do not. There is no try" Yoda
Re: The most perplexing issues
« Reply #25 on: July 30, 2013, 08:53:34 AM »

A question not yet clear for me is whether the "N" was received explicitly as "NORTH" of just letter "N", which would make a difference. Does anybody know?

The only source for the "281 message" (Post-Loss Radio Catalog, entry 125) is a message received by Itasca from Coast Guard Radio in Honolulu reporting something heard by Navy Radio Wailupe (near Honolulu).  We don't have anything from the operators who actually heard the message.  Wailupe notified the Coast Guard, possibly by telephone, and the Coast Guard notified Itasca.  All we know is what Coast Guard Honolulu told Itasca.  The message was reportedly heard over a period of one hour but does that mean that the reported message - all run together as "281 NORTH HOWLAND CALL KHAQQ BEYOND NORTH DONT HOLD WITH US MUCH LONGER ABOVE WATER SHUT OF" was heard repeatedly during that time or did fragmentary phrases come in with long gaps of silence between?  We don't know how the various phrases were broken down. Was it "281 N" or "281 North"?  Was it "281 NORTH HOWLAND" or was it "281 NORTH" and then "HOWLAND CALL KHAQQ"?  Without the Wailupe log there is no way of knowing.  We've looked for the Wailupe log but no joy.
Logged

Dan Swift

  • TIGHAR member
  • *
  • Posts: 348
Re: The most perplexing issues
« Reply #26 on: July 31, 2013, 11:43:10 AM »

"Gardner Island is two hundred and eighty miles south of the Equator.."  Is this just a strange coincidence or am I adding 2 +2 = 5?  The Equator is maybe "281 North"? 
TIGHAR Member #4154
 
Logged

Ric Gillespie

  • Executive Director
  • Administrator
  • *
  • Posts: 6098
  • "Do not try. Do or do not. There is no try" Yoda
Re: The most perplexing issues
« Reply #27 on: July 31, 2013, 12:14:08 PM »

"Gardner Island is two hundred and eighty miles south of the Equator.."  Is this just a strange coincidence or am I adding 2 +2 = 5?  The Equator is maybe "281 North"?

That has always been one of the most intriguing things about the "281 message."  You can have a lot of fun parsing the reported words into phrases and trying to figure out where the gaps were and what words are missing.  The only problem is there is no way to know if you're right.
Logged

Dave Potratz

  • T2
  • **
  • Posts: 75
Re: The most perplexing issues
« Reply #28 on: July 31, 2013, 12:47:26 PM »

"Gardner Island is two hundred and eighty miles south of the Equator.." 

"south" is the word IMO that's tantilizingly absent.  Maybe it was a part of the sequence, maybe not...dang that it obviously wasn't reported as heard in conjunction with 281.. THEN we'd have something!  :-\

'Course, then there's also the notion:  why bother saying 281...why not simply "we're 280 miles south of Howland."   Again tantilizing that it might have been said...just not heard.   :(
Logged

Ric Gillespie

  • Executive Director
  • Administrator
  • *
  • Posts: 6098
  • "Do not try. Do or do not. There is no try" Yoda
Re: The most perplexing issues
« Reply #29 on: July 31, 2013, 01:11:40 PM »

281 NORTH HOWLAND CALL KHAQQ BEYOND NORTH DONT HOLD WITH US MUCH LONGER ABOVE WATER SHUT OFF

For the fun of it.   Remember, this was sent in poorly keyed code. Add or change as little as possible to make it make sense.

LINE (short for equator) IS 281 NORTH.  HAVE or HEARD HOWLAND CALL KHAQQ.

BEYOND NORTH (?)

DONT HOLD WITH US MUCH LONGER (Very hard to construct a short grammatical English sentence containing this phrase.  I think DON'T is really WON'T)

CAN'T KEEP RADIO ABOVE WATER  MUST SHUT OFF
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 ... 10   Go Up
 

Copyright 2024 by TIGHAR, a non-profit foundation. No portion of the TIGHAR Website may be reproduced by xerographic, photographic, digital or any other means for any purpose. No portion of the TIGHAR Website may be stored in a retrieval system, copied, transmitted or transferred in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, digital, photographic, magnetic or otherwise, for any purpose without the express, written permission of TIGHAR. All rights reserved.

Contact us at: info@tighar.org • Phone: 610-467-1937 • Membership formwebmaster@tighar.org

Powered by MySQL SMF 2.0.18 | SMF © 2021, Simple Machines Powered by PHP