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Author Topic: Course lines, speed lines, where's Howland, and... where did she go?  (Read 101450 times)

Gary LaPook

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Re: Course lines, speed lines, where's Howland, and... where did she go?
« Reply #60 on: December 13, 2011, 03:22:56 PM »

I'm gonna say it and if it is the wrong thing to say, the wrong place to say I am sorry. But why in the world would anyone take off for such a long flight, with such limited window for error. Bound for such a small target with out verifying the radio works both ways. Honestly would any of you pilots do this?  If I am to follow all this correct the proof we have (debated or not) is the antenna was ripped off at take off.  That means from the get go she could hear no body? Why not turn around? Why not have someway of someone reaching her by chase plane to say we can't hear you? Why go on with no radio? I don't expect an answer as there is no way to get one short of finding a Diary on Niku. Just voicing some frustration with it all. The Logic Ric put's forth with the evedence of the video is sound. It just doesn't make since for someone to continue on with no radio and for everyone there not get word to her via a Chase plane or something. (end rant)
When flying over the ocean I always tracked outbound with my ADF tuned to the departure navaid. This made sure I was heading in the right direction to start with and also proved that the ADF was working. I can't understand why they did not check the operation of their RDF as they flew away from Lae. Her idea that she couldn't get it to work on the test flight was due to being too close to the transmitter shows her lack of knowledge about RDF. As any instrument rated pilot will tell you, the ADF works directly over the station when you are flying an NDB approach.

gl
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Gary LaPook

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Re: Course lines, speed lines, where's Howland, and... where did she go?
« Reply #61 on: December 13, 2011, 03:28:56 PM »

Quote
Re-consider Itasca's initial search effort - her commander acted on what he believed in a very short period of time.  The picture had been forming in his head that morning from all that had been pouring in, including probably lots of nuanced opinion all around him.  He did the best he could in deliberate haste.

I am really trying to understand the rational of the CG and Navy for their push East and North West. Was there any basis whatsoever for this decision?

Early media reports state that a direction finder was used at some point to say that she was either NW or SE, but I suspect that this information is just not true since the direction finder on Howland had dead batteries and there was no such equipment on the Itasca.

If true, why in the world would they think that she passed North?
I think the story is just wrong. Itasca based its search on the reported LOP, not on a radio bearing.

gl

its
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: Course lines, speed lines, where's Howland, and... where did she go?
« Reply #62 on: December 13, 2011, 05:45:27 PM »


Rich
It made no sense for AE to takeoff knowing that her RDF wasn't working during her test flight (She assumed that she was too close to the statioin at Lae).
It made no sense for AE to takeoff without a thorough and complete knowledge of the RDF capabilities at the destination.

Jeff
Here's what I think.  FN charted a course from Lae to a point on the LOP 157 to337 that was halfway between Gardiner and Howland (about 202 stature miles SSE of Howland, 202 sm NNW of Gardiner) i.e. an offset to the SSE.  That way, when they arrived at the offset  point ()600 AM Howland time) they knew to turn NNW and fly the LOP to Howland, arriving there at 0730AM Howland time.  The 0614 radio transmission referring to "Am  200 miles out..." was AE reporting her 0600 position on her regularly scheduled 15 minutes after the hour contact.  After not spotting Howland at the expected arrival time (0730-0745) "we must be on you but can't see you", she continued on the NNW course 337 for 20 to 30 minutes (44 to 66 miles) and then "circling" back onto the 337 to 157 course heading back to Howland  and beyond to the Phoenix Island Group and Gardiner. arriving there about noon Howland time.
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Heath Smith

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Re: Course lines, speed lines, where's Howland, and... where did she go?
« Reply #63 on: December 13, 2011, 07:06:04 PM »


Quote
FN charted a course from Lae to a point on the LOP 157 to337 that was halfway between Gardiner and Howland

That almost sounds like the position 1.6S 176W. The reports in the Itasca logs say that direction was not given by the guys in CA and this was also quoted in the media. Somehow later it was supposed to be South West of Howland. Although one of the amateurs had supposedly confessed on tape to a hoax, apparently saying that they made up the report over some Navy conspiracy (sure, sure there was), it is interesting that it is right near the 157/337 heading from Howland, very close to the 1/2 point between Howland and Gardner. Did any of the others ever confess? Could it be that the amateur report had some merit and this guy later fell off his mental rocker? I also read that picking up the 3105 Khz in CA was out of the question / impossible so there is probably no sense in paying it any attention to it.
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richie conroy

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Re: Course lines, speed lines, where's Howland, and... where did she go?
« Reply #64 on: December 13, 2011, 09:14:17 PM »

ha ha Cynthia it's like Facebook once u pop u can't stop,

the reason i believe an trust Tighar hypothesis,  is because they have gone to great length, to gather evidence to back there investigation , were most other research's have based their theory's on second hand info, but Tighar have got there's  from actual archive's...

p.s beware ov Ric's alter ego i swear they are a double act  ;D

We are an echo of the past


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JNev

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Re: Course lines, speed lines, where's Howland, and... where did she go?
« Reply #65 on: December 14, 2011, 05:43:28 AM »


Rich
It made no sense for AE to takeoff knowing that her RDF wasn't working during her test flight (She assumed that she was too close to the statioin at Lae).
It made no sense for AE to takeoff without a thorough and complete knowledge of the RDF capabilities at the destination.

Jeff
Here's what I think.  FN charted a course from Lae to a point on the LOP 157 to337 that was halfway between Gardiner and Howland (about 202 stature miles SSE of Howland, 202 sm NNW of Gardiner) i.e. an offset to the SSE.  That way, when they arrived at the offset  point ()600 AM Howland time) they knew to turn NNW and fly the LOP to Howland, arriving there at 0730AM Howland time.  The 0614 radio transmission referring to "Am  200 miles out..." was AE reporting her 0600 position on her regularly scheduled 15 minutes after the hour contact.  After not spotting Howland at the expected arrival time (0730-0745) "we must be on you but can't see you", she continued on the NNW course 337 for 20 to 30 minutes (44 to 66 miles) and then "circling" back onto the 337 to 157 course heading back to Howland  and beyond to the Phoenix Island Group and Gardiner. arriving there about noon Howland time.

Harry,

I agree that AE probably believed her RDF capability was full-up when she left Lae, too.  What's tragic is what I think Gary pointed out - nearly unbelievable to most of us pilots that she wouldn't have checked it again outbound.  Of course our point of view is different in a way - AE was highly focused on 'success' - that of schedule and place (get-there-itis); in fairness, she also had a heavily laden airplane that she would have had to land again (meaning dumping precious fuel) for the sake of that failure.  Recall too that she had already chalked-up one apparent non-functioning test to 'being too close to the station' - whether error of understanding or too willing to toss such details aside makes little difference at some point. 

Those things don't provide an adequate excuse - I merely see them as reasons that might stack up in AE's thinking that would cause her to toss caution on this detail to the wind and make grander assumptions about success.  Think about what we've observed of her habits - that's no big stretch, tragically.

As to the offset navigation -

I don't know - I guess we'll never know for sure.  What you say makes sense - but I don't think NR16020 would have had to split the difference between the islands to be 'safe'.  Ironically though, she may well have popped up right on the LOP where you are thinking: not realizing how far south she really was (if the case) she may never have quite got into visual range of Baker (south of Howland) before giving up and turning south toward Gardner.  It is a plausible outcome and could account for many of the observable pieces in this puzzle.  Hence, for me, the soundness of the Gardner landing.

LTM -
- Jeff Neville

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« Last Edit: December 14, 2011, 05:46:17 AM by Jeff Neville »
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: Course lines, speed lines, where's Howland, and... where did she go?
« Reply #66 on: December 14, 2011, 11:08:25 AM »


Jeff
The principle of the offset method is to make the offset large enough such that even if you've drifted afar you will still be on the side of the offset and know without question which way to turn when you reach the LOP.  If the drift error could be as much as 260 statute miles (10% of the 2560 total miles) then a 202 miles offset would be adequate.  The drift error was probably less than that since FN had "fixes" along the course from Lae to the offset point, probably.

Because of my training and background in Accident/Incident(A/I)  Investigation I tend to look at this from that point of view when commenting on AE's capabilities and actions.  Unfortunately, and yes tragically, all the little errors, oversights, and risks taken all piled up on the Lae to Howland leg and resulted in the tragedy.  IMHO there was a  lot of pressure to arrive at Oakland on the Fourth of July amid Brass Bands and wildly ecstatic worshippers (I think that George Putnam, the promoter would have seen to that).  The delay at Lae also contributed to the "Get home itis".  We'll never know.

I think that the "HAR" in TIGHAR stands for  Historic Aircraft Recovery and hopefully it's possible to find and recover the Electra.  Kinda like the Titanic, except that its location was pretty well known and eventually the technology became available to go and get it.
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Course lines, speed lines, where's Howland, and... where did she go?
« Reply #67 on: December 14, 2011, 11:39:14 AM »

The principle of the offset method is to make the offset large enough such that even if you've drifted afar you will still be on the side of the offset and know without question which way to turn when you reach the LOP.

What evidence do you see that an offset was used?

IMHO there was a  lot of pressure to arrive at Oakland on the Fourth of July amid Brass Bands and wildly ecstatic worshippers (I think that George Putnam, the promoter would have seen to that).  The delay at Lae also contributed to the "Get home itis".  We'll never know.

We know this much.  Any possibility of getting back to Oakland by July 4 was shot before they left Lae.  From Finding Amelia page 75:
Back in California, George Putnam, having learned that his wife had not left Lae on June 30 but not yet aware that the July 1 departure had also been canceled, was still trying to find out whether she would be home in time for the radio engagement Monday night. Knowing that Itasca was trying to establish direct contact with Lae, and hoping to catch Amelia before the scheduled takeoff, he had the Coast Guard’s San Francisco Division send an urgent message to the ship: “Please forward Earhart, Lae. Rush. Is there likelihood Oakland by Monday morning? Reply via Itasca. Important.”27 Itasca never established direct radio contact with Lae, and the message was not forwarded to Lae as a telegram.*
*Over the years there have been accusations that George Putnam pressured his wife to make the flight to Howland before she was ready. While there is no doubt that the messages he sent to her via Itasca conveyed a sense of urgency, Earhart never saw them.


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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: Course lines, speed lines, where's Howland, and... where did she go?
« Reply #68 on: December 14, 2011, 12:17:00 PM »


Ric
I didn't say that GPP was pressurung AE  about the Oakland arrival.  I said that GPP would have seen to it that there was  a crowd of enthusiastic people there to greet her on the Holiday.  So AE didn't get a message or a telegram, so what? Does that mean that she didn't feel a certain amount of anxiety over the delays  and perhaps increase her "Get home itis"?

As for the Offset., I was proposing a sub-hypothesis.  FN was very knowledgable in the use of an offset.  AE's 0614 transmission could have been announcing her arrival at the offset point ("200 miles out").  Probably arrived there at 0600 but didn't announce it until her regular 0615 time for transmissions.  "Running N and S on the LOP 157/337..."  Yep, NNW from the offset point towards Howland then "circling" back SSE on the LOP.

What is your evidence that they travelled a straight line (rhumb line or sreat circle) route to Howland?
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Gary LaPook

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Re: Course lines, speed lines, where's Howland, and... where did she go?
« Reply #69 on: December 14, 2011, 02:23:25 PM »


Jeff
The principle of the offset method is to make the offset large enough such that even if you've drifted afar you will still be on the side of the offset and know without question which way to turn when you reach the LOP.  If the drift error could be as much as 260 statute miles (10% of the 2560 total miles) then a 202 miles offset would be adequate.  The drift error was probably less than that since FN had "fixes" along the course from Lae to the offset point, probably.


Harry,
I'm trying to follow you reasoning about you theory of a 202 mile offset to the south-southeast.

1. Do you believe that they deliberately planned to intercept the 157-337 LOP 202 SM out to the south-southeast?
2. What do you believe was Noonan's estimate of maximum possible error in his dead reckoning at the point that they intercepted the LOP?

gl
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: Course lines, speed lines, where's Howland, and... where did she go?
« Reply #70 on: December 14, 2011, 04:08:41 PM »


Gary
1.Yes
2.I don't know cause I don't know when/where he had the last "fix" (I mean his celestial "fix"), but in any case less than 200 miles.
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Course lines, speed lines, where's Howland, and... where did she go?
« Reply #71 on: December 14, 2011, 04:58:40 PM »

  "Running N and S on the LOP 157/337..."  Yep, NNW from the offset point towards Howland then "circling" back SSE on the LOP

Who are you quoting?  Certainly not AE.  She never said anything about an LOP and she almost certainly never said she was "circling." See Things Not Said

What is your evidence that they travelled a straight line (rhumb line or sreat circle) route to Howland?

Primarily the utter absence of evidence that they did anything else.  If AE was an accomplished aerobatic pilot would you propose that she flew the last few hundred miles inverted? Fred didn't use an offset when flying the Pan am Pacific routes.  He didn't use an offset on the Earhart flight from Oakland to Honolulu.  He didn't intentionally use an offset on the South Atlantic crossing.

On the other hand, maybe she did fly the approach to Howland inverted.  How would we ever know?
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Gary LaPook

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Re: Course lines, speed lines, where's Howland, and... where did she go?
« Reply #72 on: December 14, 2011, 06:52:38 PM »


Gary
1.Yes
2.I don't know cause I don't know when/where he had the last "fix" (I mean his celestial "fix"), but in any case less than 200 miles.
3. How far did they fly on a course of 337° true to ensure that they would find Holwand after intercepting the LOP to the south-southwest?
gl
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: Course lines, speed lines, where's Howland, and... where did she go?
« Reply #73 on: December 14, 2011, 08:59:45 PM »


Gary
3.  202 miles to the vicinty of Howland  then 44 to 66miles (20-30 minutes at 134 nph) WNW of where they expected to see Howland, then they circled back towards Howland and continued on to Gardiner.
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: Course lines, speed lines, where's Howland, and... where did she go?
« Reply #74 on: December 14, 2011, 09:09:12 PM »


Ric
I see, no evidence found for A, nor B, therefore it must have been C, even though there is no evidence for C (straight line route).

Your "nverted " annology is beneath you and doesn't deserve serious consideration nor comment.
I'll have to look at the Itasca radio log info to source the info for you.
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LTM   Harry (TIGHAR #3244R)
 
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