Evaluating the Niku hypothesis: conflicting strategies for testing hypotheses

[Ric Gillespie]

Can someone explain this to me please?

John Delsing says, "I since have found out that you can't run a LOP of 337 from the Howland vicinity and hit Gardner, at least mot at that time of day they were there."  That may be true but it is also immaterial to TIGHAR's hypothesis.  Noonan clearly did get a 157 337 LOP and Earhart was clearly running on that line when last heard from by Itasca.  If you are south of Howland on a 157 337 LOP and you dead-reckon down the line, you will come within sight of Gardner.  That's the most plausible explanation but no one will ever know for sure how they got to Gardner.  All that matters is that they do seem to have gotten there.

[JNev]

Can someone explain this to me please?

John Delsing says, "I since have found out that you can't run a LOP of 337 from the Howland vicinity and hit Gardner, at least mot at that time of day they were there."  That may be true but it is also immaterial to TIGHAR's hypothesis.  Noonan clearly did get a 157 337 LOP and Earhart was clearly running on that line when last heard from by Itasca.  If you are south of Howland on a 157 337 LOP and you dead-reckon down the line, you will come within sight of Gardner.  That's the most plausible explanation but no one will ever know for sure how they got to Gardner.  All that matters is that they do seem to have gotten there.

I understand the concept but John Delsing's statement seems to be a contradition to me -

I surely agree that a 'sun line' shifts with time, yes - but a 'LOP' taken from a sun line taken at a given time of day and laid down across the earth / a chart remains defined and fixed: 157 / 337 through Howland remains that once drawn on a chart; a pilot may follow it by dead reckoning and well come very close to Gardner / Niku if far enough south / southeast 'on the line' from Howland.

[Chris Johnson]

you are speaking of the 'stuff' that drives us to seek - that's the gas in the tank for many of us.

"But now that researchers understand dopamine and the SEEKING system better, the way we think abut rewards is changing.  What's rewarding about rewards isn't so much the reward item itself, but the time you spend looking forward to it.  In some ways, chasing after things is more fun than actually getting them."

Animals Make Us Human
Temple Grandin
page 104

Which may explain a great deal of why we do this.  I recall being utterly fascinated with the Titanic as a youngster, and ecstatic as a young man when it was found - and my interest is still there, but it is much lower level, a calm, occasional glimpse into 'what goes' now that she's found and many secrets of her passing are known.

Thinking of that I nearly dread the idea of Earhart's disappearance being solved for certain... well, almost... there's always another or so - like White Bird... and whatever happened to Paul Redfern?  I would love to pursue that one.

Paul Redfern

How many of these people are there? AE, The White Bird, then what? So so many :)

[Chris Johnson]

you are speaking of the 'stuff' that drives us to seek - that's the gas in the tank for many of us.

"But now that researchers understand dopamine and the SEEKING system better, the way we think abut rewards is changing.  What's rewarding about rewards isn't so much the reward item itself, but the time you spend looking forward to it.  In some ways, chasing after things is more fun than actually getting them."

Animals Make Us Human
Temple Grandin
page 104

Which may explain a great deal of why we do this.  I recall being utterly fascinated with the Titanic as a youngster, and ecstatic as a young man when it was found - and my interest is still there, but it is much lower level, a calm, occasional glimpse into 'what goes' now that she's found and many secrets of her passing are known.

Thinking of that I nearly dread the idea of Earhart's disappearance being solved for certain... well, almost... there's always another or so - like White Bird... and whatever happened to Paul Redfern?  I would love to pursue that one.