Even IF the smoking gun is found then there is a good chance that many critics will not accept it as proof that the Niku hypothesis is correct. If Nessie is found, for instance, then some could claim that it was a fake that TIGHAR planted. Or maybe it floated there on the current? If DNA evidence is found some will claim that it was planted, faked or both. There are ALWAYS going to be people who will argue anything, no matter how absurd, to try and prove that they were correct. I might only be 25, but I've learned that lesson several times in life already. My tactic is to ignore those people and let them believe whatever they want.
TIGHAR needs to stick to their guns and follow the scientific method to prove this hypothesis correct ... or not. I think the evidence strongly points to the Niku hypothesis being correct, but maybe it's not. Maybe she did crash and float, or crash on McKean or New Britain or someplace else. All that TIGHAR can do is continue following the scientific method and continue the excellent work they are doing. That won't satisfy the media or many critics, but it's the only way of solving this mystery!
Nathan.
I am rather afraid that that is simply the creation of a straw man argument on a hypothetical and unproven premise which has been taken to being a prediction of future behaviour as demonstrated fact, or to put it another way BS
.
In other words if TIGHAR found an identifiable fragment of the Electra or an artifact, or artifacts, that can be shown to have 100% provenance to Earhart or Noonan and published that clearly without any attempt to say more than the evidence demonstrated, or will bear, then any reasonably informed person with the appropriate training and qualifications that enabled them to read and understand the publication would accept it (any person with qualifications and experience in archaeology, history, or any science where analysis of these artifacts might occur).
It is only the unqualified lunatic fringe e.g. the people who believe in Noah's Ark, faces on Mars, Chariots of the Gods etc. who would question it on the basis that it was a plant. And even if they did they would fall at the first hurdle which would be the solidity of the evidence offered by TIGHAR to make their case. That is how your prediction would work in fact rather than in fantasy.
There are enough problems with the current evidentiary value of the artifacts so far offered without inventing this sort of situation. The only problem I can foresee would be if TIGHAR then attempted to gild the lily by arguing for some behavioral features that the evidence could not demonstrate without recourse to another hypothesis.
It is not a race, other than as Jeff has pointed out regarding the actual remaining time for which artifacts can survive without corroding away completely, it is a search for an answer to Earhart and Noonan's final resting place. It can only be in one place - it cannot be in three or four different places. If TIGHAR demonstrates conclusively as I have outlined with incontestable evidence that it is Nikumaroro then that will be accepted by reasonable people - reasonable can also be taken to infer people with the ability to reason, others who don't have that ability don't, to put it bluntly, matter.