I believe there are three major theories to why Lambrecht and crew did not see AE.
1). The Gary LaPook theory that AE and FN were never on Gardner island, that they crashed and sank some where else.
2). The TIGHAR theory that AE landed at Gardner, transmitted from Gardner, a storm, or high winds, or tidal actions, blew the plane off the beach or reef, AE ( and possibly FN ) were inland in thick ‘jungle like woods’ when Lambrecht flew over and could not get to an opening or beach in time to be spotted, or because of wind and wave sounds Lambrecht planes were not heard in time to get to an opening, or Lambrecht and crew were busy looking at other objects ( maybe recent habitations ) and just did not see them, or similar reasons. After the flight she or both migrated down to the seven site and survived for a few weeks, or possibly a few months.
3). My theory, John Delsing’s theory if you don’t mind. Yes, they certainly may have landed on Gardner, and transmitted from there, but if you believe this you might also want to believe that most of their transmits were real and truthful, and yes they were injured, just ask Betty or Mabel and after 5 days of 110 to 120 degree heat with injuries and little or no water or food and little or no survival training, they both were either dead or so near death that they could not answer the bell when Lambrecht flew over. ( I have no proof or manuals Martin, just my thoughts on how well they prepared for their radio communications, and how well they striped needed things from the plane for weight reasons ).
Please note; if you accept some, or all of my theory then you will have to also accept the fact, as hard a it will be for some, that AE never visited, let alone survived at the seven site ( She may have, in her last hours, staggered down the beach till she could go no farther, and crawled up under the shade of a large wren tree and died ). Not very romantic or the ending that most of us would like, but to me much more logical than spending weeks ( or months ) at the seven site hunting and fishing and building fires in different places but never building a monument of some type, or placing stones or coconuts saying “AE 7-2-37” or using her knife blade to crave in a tree a similar msg, or similar.
We have spent trips, much money, and much, much time digging and then analyzing objects from the seven site, and have found not one item that we can say came from AE. Hindsight is always 20/20 and I don’t want to criticize our past decisions, I am sure at the time the evidence looked good, but if we would have spent just a small portion of that search effort searching the ‘brush’ near where most of us think the plane landed and where “we know” they had to have camped for 5 days, I think our odds of finding something would have been far greater. But that will probably be a good reason to launch a new expedition.
I closing I know that as of now, none of the three theories can be proved, or disproved, However; I would like to go out on the limb and state that by this time next month we will be down to only two plausible theories.
I am causally optimistic that Ric will be calling in with pictures of an engine, or at least a propeller and theory 1, for most of us, will be just a ‘bad’ memory. For those members that made the Wash DC meeting and were thinking about buying an electronic pin to wear, I suggest you watch ebay in the coming weeks, I have a feeling that one that reads “CRASHED and SANK” will be coming available shortly.