WE ARE RUNNING ON N ES S LINE or WE ARE RUNNING ON LINE N ES S sounds a whole lot more like a description of some sort of a search pattern than a statement that they are flying to the Phoenix Islands.
gl
I agree, Gary. In fact, I believe that flying a LOP is by definition part of a search pattern. The only question I have is 'what part of the search pattern was it?'
AE's last call suggests to me, because it came at the end of an hour's effort of what was logically a searching effort, a description of the last line being run, so to speak, in the box or in whatever pattern they were using. That's of course just an impression - I can't know for certain that they did not continue a pattern - unless it is proven that NR16020 did arrive at Gardner some day. But at some point, with dwindling fuel in a land plane, you should consider whether to cut and run for land if you don't find your island. The Phoenix group was the next best choice.
The call's description also suggest to me that they had either arrived at, or returned to, what they believed was a line of position that should have passed through Howland, established at some point by a sun observation and then kept later by pilotage. Of course which way they were running at that time we do not know - and I agree - AE did not say anything about bugging out for the Phoenix group, etc. at that time. Of course NR16020 went mute again right after that last call for whatever reason - similar to the preceding 43 minutes.
I realize the LOP may have actually been offset in error without FN realizing it (I guess that's obvious) - and how that could wreck the plan. But my own understanding from all this is fairly simple:
- IF NR16020 DID make it to Gardner, she would have had to have been flying on or close to a line of 157 - 337 - and would have had to do so by flying down to the SE on that line (by pilotage, once the LOP had been established by observation previously)
- IF the MC IS 'correct' and the flight WAS placed to the SW at 1912Z as it indicates, then FN would have had to eventually find his way further east by more observations
- Coming finally to what he believed was 'THE' line of position through Howland (at least by 2013Z), the flight proceeded north by some distance (but not far enough to reach Baker or Howland), thence, not finding the island(s), finally continued SE hoping for landfall among the Phoenix group.
From this you can see there is a 'N-S challenge' bias in my thinking:
- The LOP seems elementary enough for FN as the sun rose higher - (I don't think sunrise was a reliable time for the shot but correct me if I'm wrong);
- WHICH WAY to proceed along the line and HOW FAR seem to issues to me - hence the bias: for whatever reason I am struggling with how FN might have been able to bound himself as to north and south; I believe this may have been crucial - but correct me if I'm wrong in this belief.
This is the picture I have been able to gain. Among that, again, is that I agree that a search pattern was very likely flown in that hour or so of effort prior to the 2013Z call - it was a given tool in FN's box. I also agree that flying the LOP as stated was at least a part of that search pattern effort. The 'cut and run' part at the end is still a mystery - but I believe Gardner is indicated as a very possible outcome for reasons I've stated.
Thanks for your response above and for considering my thoughts on this.
LTM -