That's a wild set of possibilities for different nav paths - and I can see logic in some of it. I can also see strong logic in sticking to a more direct route and relying on distantly visible lights (or their glow), etc.
Whether there was an intentional change enroute, deviation northward, lost-and-found exercise, plenty of unannounced star shots or FN passed-out in the cabin, what bearing does this all have on AE announcing approach to Howland, believing 'must be on' same, and finally describing 'on the line'? Something made her believe those things, but they did not 'bear' out for her, did they?
FN was either on top of things and guiding her (I would hope), a contributor at some level (compromised - hope not), or AE was stuck doing best on pilotage from whatever last firm position they had (no wonder she never found Howland...).
As has been pointed out, my ESP, however wonderful, isn't likely to win any horse races.
I'd like to think FN didn't really have an incapacitating issue, but
"Was Noonan a drunkard?" isn't easily dismissed. Gore Vidal's recollection is 'sobering' to me now:
"Gore Vidal: "Well, just the night before the final flight, she reported in and they had a code phrase, 'personnel problems,' which meant Noonan was back drinking. And my father said, 'Just stop it right now and come home,' and G.P. agreed and said, 'Come back, abort the flight, forget it, come home.' And then she said, 'Oh, no,' and she said, 'I think it’ll be all right,' something like that. So you may put that down to invincible optimism or it may have been huge pessimism." I'm not saying that to tar poor FN, but it's hard to ignore when we still really can't account so well for how NR16020 failed to appear at Howland after what should have been a fairly basic exercise for a sober navigator like Noonan. One could also 'wonder' (ESP again) about a possible lack of a second set of eyeballs looking out for the island - I believe the 1967 re-creation flight found itself dependent on that approach when they finally spotted Howland.
"Personnel unfitness" (or if "personal unfitness") was apparently a very private term devised between AE and GP which seems intended to import real meaning but without bringing negatives to the light in their publicity efforts. What was so dark about it that they didn't want it creeping into the headlines?
If the Vidal observation is reliable the term carried potentially grave meanings - it would be no light thing to cancel plans, and AE resisted it at least on the occasion mentioned by Vidal.
Could AE have toughed it out without FN's full help and pressed on by dead reckoning after reporting "ship" or "lights"?
Could
she have had enough savvy to note time and apparent sunrise to gain what she
thought was a good LOP through Howland?
Would she have considered such a thing, or would she have turned back?
Now I'll use my "ESP" again (call it what you will) and share some thoughts (that's all they are - I don't "know" what happened) -
- She
could have toughed it out.
- She
might have believed enough about herself to think she could discern distance-east (longitude) by sunrise / time (FN had run her through a similar arrival exercise on trip from Oakland to Hawaii) and thereby to find a LOP through Howland.
- She
may well have considered such a thing - and may have acted on it. At least by Gore Vidal's recollection, AE also had a tendency to 'tough things out' - better die than look bad is about how it comes across.
If AE did act on this -
- Could she have arrived at a reasonable LOP that would pass 337 - 157 through Howland?
I'll upset at least half the audience here and say I believe she well might have: IF she had a chart in hand with the concept in front of her, she was smart enough to 'get' the concept. I don't know about a time piece, but at least in basic form it is quite within reason that she could have set a time piece as closely to FN's as possible.
We'll never know how much advance discussion AE and FN may have had about the navigation planning - I would hope 'a great deal' but we can't know. We see her as something of a charming dingbat at times - but she was not stupid or completely devoid of aeronautical capability (and certainly had more large cabin-class twin time and trans-oceanic flight time by the time she was lost than I've had in a lifetime).
So, IF she did attain the LOP / close to it, HOW could she miss Howland?
- Only one set of eyeballs? Possible.
- LOP off? Quite possible.
Could she have still made her way to Gardner?
Possibly so.
Coulda-shoulda-woulda and lots of ESP, for sure. I don't know what happened except that they missed Howland somehow.
I am compelled by the evidence found on Gardner of castaway(s) - there have been too many tell-tale items that are gender / time / article-specific to someone 'like' AE that have been found there.
I am compelled by the evidence of credible post-loss radio signals.
I am compelled by the nature of the fringing reef in that place, it's ability to support a landing - and then to hide the evidence later.
I am also still compelled by the hypothesis and how it is supported by so many painstakingly developed details of how the LOP could have been flown down to Gardner. I am not alone: the navy seemed to grasp the concept at the time.
I don't know how they got into the fix, but despite that I still see Gardner (Niku) as the best ground to search today - more than ever.
MUCH LTM - and Gore, and bless FN, I wonder so...