"...During darkness, Fred would have been unable to get an accurate fix on what the wind was doing to them and not until he clocked the sunrise, did he know how far he was from Howland."
Although I have very little Celestial Navigation training, I cannot imaging FN not knowing their position, or at least their N/S drift, from the available stars at that time. That's 'almost' trivial navigation (you're welcome to quote me later). It seem likely that Fred would have been able to calculate the N/S drift from wind upon reaching the sunrise LOP, and given AE reasonably accurate directions which way to turn, following the LOP, to raise Howland.
Whatever happened, they did not follow my assumptions.