Yes, we've discussed the POD in the past. You choose to interpret them your way, which is to give an unrealistically high probability. I don't know anyone doing an actual search who would in practice assign such a high probability under the circumstances, but you wish to derive an unrealistically high probability to bolster your argument that AE was never on Niku, so use them as you wish. I can't change your mind.
What you are saying is that if AE were half dead after a week with little water, lying back in the bush to get out of the sun, unable to get out in the open during the time that the aircraft were overhead, you would have seen her anyway since the probability tables (as you interpret them) say you would have. That to me is unrealistic, you don't have to be purposely hiding to get missed during a search, subjects get missed all the time. How would that be possible with PODs so high?
You must have some set of eyes, my friend, and since they are so good, I ask you where are the other 6-8 people who are were on the ground when the video was taken? I know where they are, and I still can't see them even when the camera zooms in on them. IF, when the helicopter came over, instead of wading in the lagoon, we all happened to be traversing the island from lagoon to beach under the canopy, which takes a good 15 minutes, we would have been impossible to spot, even with your eyes.
I would also like to point out that the video of the guys wading out is generally highly zoomed by the cameraman and doesn't accurately represent the ability of the Mark I eyeball. The helicopter is also at considerably lower altitude than we believe the Navy aircraft. If it weren't for the orange Naiad, the focus of the camera, and the fact that there are 3 of them, they'd be much more difficult to spot. Not nearly an equivalent situation as spotting a single person from 400 ft without a skiff, even if they are in the open.
Think about it this way. How many individual trees can you identify as individual and distinct in the Aerial Tour. Using your POD methodology, you should be able to see and distinguish at least 85% of the individual tree trunks, but I seriously doubt that you can. If AE was leaning against one of them, you'd miss her.
Your assumptions might apply for people standing out in the water or on the beach, but when you consider short duration of the overhead flight, the foliage, and the difficulty of getting into an open spot on the ground if you don't happen to be in one, your assertion that there would be a high probability of being seen is hopelessly optimistic given the scenario.
Andrew
We discussed this before and the Probability of Detection tables from the National Search And Rescue Manual show a high probability of detection
IF Earhart and Noonan had been on the island. And when you watch the helicopter fly around you have no trouble seeing the people wading out to the boat in the lagoon and this section of the video was shot from out over the sea on the north side of the island which is as far away as you can get and still be searching the island so the Navy planes were not farther away than this. The only way they would not have been seen is if they were purposefully trying to hide in the brush, a highly unlikely event.
gl
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