Friend,
Thank you for posting this. It is very interesting. The cited dissertation by Teresa Wilson (now at the U.S. Naval Observatory) is here.
https://digitalcommons.mtu.edu/etdr/697/I extracted the following from the sky and telescope link.
Ms. Wilson suggests that typical sunrise and sunset estimates are often off by 1 to 5 minutes. Her dissertation delves into the assumptions navigators and others make about the refraction of the sun’s light through earth’s atmosphere. Most sources today assume an angle of refraction at the horizon of 34 arc-minutes although she found references to this dating back centuries. Excerpts from the article.
Using a single refraction angle doesn’t account for different meteorological conditions from location to location. Nor does this approach take into account how the observer’s altitude might change things. Summer showed the largest discrepancies in sunrise-sunset predictions, probably due to the pronounced refractive effect that the large temperature difference in the atmosphere has during those months.
There are many factors involved but generally Ms. Wilson discovered that sunrise and sunset times cannot be reliably predicted to better than 2 minutes.
Two minutes might sound inconsequential, but as Ms. Wilson noted, if GPS fails, sailors will use celestial navigation (and before GPS e.g. Noonan they all utilized celestial).
Quoting Ms. Wilson; “Most sailors will tell you that they can get their position with celestial navigation to within 1 nautical mile. But if part of that calculation involves sunrise-sunset 1 minute of time turns into 15 nautical miles of error."
A better understanding of how the atmosphere bends light on the horizon would affect moonrise predictions, too.
I did not find a reference to how refraction might be affected by a volcanic eruption/ash/floating pumice which occurred at Rabual, Papua New approximately 1 month before the Earhart flight.