Hi Ric et al, I wrote the following during the 'slack period' on the forum after the less than productive Niku IX and having written it I have been somewhat reticent to post it thinking that, in the annals of Tighar's immense research into the subject, it MUST have been thrashed out long ago, before I found TIGHAR.
With the exciting news about the imminent ROV activity at NIKU and the recent exhortation by Ric to email Ric with any ideas etc., I decided, finally, to post this.... maybe, just maybe this could be the place to look.... ? (please read below)
Sincerely David Williams
+++ Remember this was written just after Niku IX +++++++++++++++++
NIKU - HAVE WE BEEN LOOKING IN THE WRONG PLACE, ALL ALONG?
(and did we again look in the wrong place in 2017?)
A fresh look at a mysterious number.....
As the forum has been deathly quiet for so long I thought I would stir up the hornets nest and maybe get these pages humming again! I am a relatively new member here and so my knowledge of past iterations of this particular subject is very limited, apologies if it has been thrashed out in the distant past.
I have for a long time been intrigued by the seemingly random sequence of numbers jotted down by professional Navy wireless operators based at Wailupe some eighty years ago, when they were sure they were listening to Amelia Earhart's post loss transmissions.
(Edited by me 8th Nov 2017 to reflect Ric’s correction. I had mistakenly remembered the 281 number being recorded by Betty Klenck but in fact it was recorded by professional Navy wireless operators (w/o’s) stationed at Wailupe, recorded by them in official US Navy radio logs, at the time and on the same frequency being used by Amelia! Maybe then, the following theory is even more pertinent, being based on an official government record on the actual frequency in use rather than, as I pre-supposed, on Betty’s notes received on an harmonic of that frequency!)
One number in particular has kept me pondering as to what it could mean. If it is a correctly recorded number from a genuine Earhart transmission then I have to wonder why it is so specific. The number is 281, nothing more, nothing less, not rounded to 280 nor 285, very specifically 281, which if I was trying hard to be found is just what I would be doing as a downed pilot or navigator, i.e. being exact with the available technology!
Such a large volume of information and research has been found and catalogued by TIGHAR over the years that I am sure others may have come to a similar viewpoint and it may have previously been discussed. If so this will not be news to the long term members here however the following is my 'take' on what MAY be the case re: the mysterious number.... 281.
DAVE WILLIAMS' 281 THEORY: September 2017
From official US Navy radio logs recorded in 1937 and subsequently thought to be of Amelia Earhart’s post loss radio signals, where "281" is quoted without any units qualifier given.
Nautical Miles (nm) have traditionally been the standard Navigators unit of measurement for sea and (later) air distances for a very long time. I think therefore that it's possible that the 281 referred to was/is nautical miles!
If so...... then because one degree of latitude on the Earth's surface = 60nm we divide 281 by 60 and find it equates to 4.6833' (recurring) degrees = 4* 41' 00" (old school degs, mins, secs) of latitude.
Applying this distance/latitude South of the Equator (note NOT South of Howland) the resultant South line of latitude goes straight through (surprise, surprise)...... Gardner/Nikumaroro Island.
Depending on the variable Longitude chosen, a fix at 281 nm south of the equator can be found on the south eastern 'limb' of the atoll on the reef to the south of Kanawa Point extending eastwards to Baureke Passage. It has been suggested AE experienced stronger easterly winds on her Lae - Howland leg than she expected, so this location would be more favourable for landing into those stronger easterlies than the current TIGHAR theory which favours the almost North/South landing site near to the Norwich City shipwreck (pronounced btw Norrich City by we Brits, silent 'w')
This same line of latitude, if followed east along that shoreline from Baureke Passage for some distance then skips through the SE end of the lagoon and reappears again on dry land on a strip of 'beachfront'/ reef, also 281 nm south of the equator, in the vicinity of..... wait for it....... the 'seven site'!!! Coincidence or what??? Hmmm.
If Fred took a midday sighting on the sun or instructed Amelia how to do so (if as is supposed he was injured) and he/she arrived at a fix of 281 nm south of the Equator then either of the two locations, in my reasoning above, could conceivably be where they were sending their post loss radio signals from. If so, then it's very possible that one of those two locations is where they set up 'Camp Zero' close to where the aircraft finally landed and came to rest!
Flying down the LOP 337/137, if she was still experiencing easterly winds and she saw that seven site stretch of reef directly ahead of her it may have been her first choice of strip on which to land. Additionally if she thought she was flying on fumes and the LOP already had her on that heading, as the island and reef hove into view and perhaps fearing that a dead stick landing might be imminent, she may have decided to land with 'power on' ASP on a straight in approach to the seven site vicinity. It's likely she was more or less into wind or at most she probably had a quartering crosswind from her port side on finals blowing her onshore (also no turbulence off the trees) if she did land near the seven site.
So, if the seven site is where they set up camp zero, after landing abeam the seven site, then the same scenario as posited for the Norwich City assumption might also apply to this location, i.e. the ship floated offshore and sank a few days later at high tide. If so, then maybe it would be A GOOD IDEA to search the underwater area immediately offshore of the seven site!! Isn't this after all where conjecture suggests "signs of recent habitation" was reported to have been seen by Lambrecht??
ALTERNATIVELY.. regarding Amelia's reported 'NY NY' etc, she/they may alternatively have flown around the island before deciding on the most into wind stretch of reef on which to land and observed the ships name in a low pass to enable reporting of that name in her first radio calls for help. Otherwise I doubt she would have had time to walk from the seven site, if that is where she landed, around to the shipwreck and then back to the seven site before getting on the radio later the same day, replete with the ships name, although that would not be impossible to do.
So, there are these two very interesting locations on the island which are both 281 nm south of the equator which both permit a reef landing in theory, I have no idea of the surface condition of those places back in 1937 of course. Nor I guess does anyone else still alive today! After 80 years of twice daily tidal activity and frequent numerous storm surges affecting the topography of those reefs who is to say what they looked like as emergency landing strips all those years ago? In addition to this, if it was a rough landing on either of these two locations, doesn’t this tie in with the post loss ‘credible’ reports that both Fred and Amelia suffered injuries during the landing??
Punch the following co-ordinates into Google Maps to see these two possible landing sites lying at exactly 281 nm South of the equator.
Not wishing to 'teach Granny to suck eggs' but if anyone is unsure how to enter the co-ordinates (below) into Google maps use this format exactly as given here: e.g. S4 41 00 W174 29 50
Location 1. S 4* 41' 00" W 174* 29' 50".... very near the seven site.
Location 2. S 4* 41' 00" W 174* 31' 15" .... abeam Baureke Passage not far from the ‘Bivouac site’ and affording a landing directly eastwards into the probable wind.
With an easterly breeze the second co-ordinates give an equally plausible alternative landing site to the seven site for a camp zero location and also subsequently, another place for the plane to have been swept over the edge.
My theory presented here does not allow for 'nessie' being part of the Electra. Of course that mysterious item has not yet been located, nor positively identified, so it does not necessarily disbar my theory.
On balance, if the recorded ‘281’ is what I think it is, then my bet is the Electra lies offshore of either the seven site or Baureke passage, deep in the briny!!!
Dave W who is now putting his steel helmet on and digging a deep foxhole! "Incoming"
LTM who was last seen scrabbling for a helmet too!
ADDENDUM: Unfortunately the most recent ROV searches of the area scanned to the North and North West of the Norwich City wreck failed to produce any evidence of Amelia’s Electra where we all hoped it might be found. Maybe, just maybe, my theory has some credence DW