Sorry, I don't agree. If Mr. Ford is right, it does not confirm the Niku-hypothesis, it could also confirm the "Captured by the Japanese"-hypothesis. Only "Crashed and sunk" would be out of play!
Dr. Ford's work supports the hypothesis that post-loss radio signals judged by TIGHAR to be credible are, in fact, genuine distress calls sent by Amelia Earhart. His work is another nail in the coffin for Crashed & Sank but does it also support Captured by the Japanese?
If the post-loss signals are genuine, the Electra made a relatively safe landing and had sufficient remaining fuel to periodically run an engine to recharge the battery over a period of at least five days.
TIGHAR has shown that:
There is a place on Nikumaroro where the plane could have made a safe landing.
The plane could have arrived with enough fuel to keep the battery charged for the requisite time period.
The times when the water level on the reef was low enough to permit an engine to be run correspond to the times of the credible post-loss messages.
Some of the post-loss messages contain information that can be interpreted to describe Nikumaroro.
None of the above has been shown to be true for any island where there was a Japanese presence. It is difficult to construct a scenario that gives the Electra enough fuel to reach anywhere in the Japanese mandate. Getting it there with enough remaining fuel to send the post-loss messages is not in the cards.
None of the credible post-loss messages make reference to the Japanese.
None of the Japanese Capture scenarios I've heard of suggest that the Electra remained undiscovered for at least five days (all of the islands in the Japanese mandate were inhabited).
In short, the post-loss messages are not compatible with the Japanese Capture hypothesis. Any analysis that supports the validity of the post-loss messages, by definition, argues against Japanese Capture.
