I am addressing the particular argument that landing conditions on the Nutiran shore
(map) are ideal for landing an aircraft. I am respectfully advancing the modest idea in its stead that landing conditions there are less than perfect but still survivable, with some possible damage to aircraft and its occupants.
We can talk about the Electra's tires and their marvelous ability to absorb shock, but consider:
1) Again, the area is studded with large potholes.
2) The worm gear on that particular Electra was not designed for force loading from the sides, as is caused by impact with a large pothole. Photos of the
tire at the Luke Field ground loop accident are instructive.
3) So far as I know the aircraft was not equipped with shoulder restraints.
The argument was advanced by Bruce that a landing on the Nutiran shore would have been rough. I wasn't there to see it (if indeed it happened at all), but I find that narrow piece of his speculation reasonable. The opposing idea that the conditions there were "ideal in both length and surface" and that a rough landing there is simply an unreasonable thought not to be entertained seems to me at odds with the facts as they have been communicated to me, by Captain Gifford, who, after all, was there, and by others.
They had to get the airplane down with all of the following intact for transmissions to be possible: starboard prop, only generator (also on the starboard side), and a working fuel system from the tanks to the starboard engine. There were doubtless a few other things the aircraft had to have working to do what it supposedly did, but beyond those minimum requirements, other damage to the aircraft must be admitted as readily possible as a direct result of the ground conditions.
Also to consider:
Captain Gifford is often quoted that he could land a 747 there
but not take off again. That implies to me either possible damage to the aircraft from landing it or subpar conditions on the takeoff field, or both.
Betty Brown and others who credibly intercepted radio transmissions said Noonan had been injured, perhaps in the landing.
Betty also told me in our telephone conversation that she thought she heard Earhart say "one engine is up." She did not write this down in the diary but remembered it later. Take this as a recalled memory from one who heard it, only this and nothing more.
I find the narrow argument I am making, of a rough but survivable landing on Nutiran with a relatively intact airplane, to be reasonable, and supported by the observable facts, tires notwithstanding. I just don't see the conditions as ideal or as anything one would attempt unless one's only other option was ditching at sea.
Joe Cerniglia
TIGHAR #3078C