Finally got to view the video - excellent, very candid presentation - felt like it 'put me there', and how I wish I could have been.
I liked the 'null hypothesis' statement. My take away from that was 'consider the "could be anything" case for this random piece of metal' - which refined a number of thoughts for me as i followed this graphic presentation:
- As random 'junk' goes, 2-2-V-1 just happens to provide a remarkably good 'envelope' fit to a certain piece of field work that is known to have been done on NR16020, considering of course that the original edges are gone
- Further to that, there is logically some risk that it might have actually been larger than 'the patch', but there are also signs that it is sized 'right': the cleaved edges (along aft, upper and upper-forward margins) suggest failures along or near the borders of sister structure
- The stiffener lines do not match original structure, but do remain logical to what a mechanic might do given a short amount of time and sparse resources to cover a hole of that size: rigidity and shape might trump simplicity and one could have gotten creative in the practical solution - I can't speak for Bo McNeeley, but can visualize the solution I see in this piece of work quite well, especially given what I believe are corresponding rivet lines in a couple of Miami photos
- The placement of the upper row and 'the tab' raise wild cards: if 2-2-V-1 is from the Electra then these are deviations from what I would expect, but they are far from 'disqualifying' as I see them; in fact at least one Miami photo suggests an addition of an extra member just below the upper margin of the window, for one
- Speaking of the tab, the 'double row' appears to be a good fit in terms of rivet pitch to the stock Electra - better than I had come to think; that's another positive
- As to the 'tab' and variances, it will be interesting to see what expert analysis of failure mode can reveal, but the fact that it stands as anomalous suggests an interruption of the normal pitch (rivet spacing) at that place for some reason; perhaps the pictures, or others if discovered, can yet answer this for us
But in sum for the moment, consider the null -
- The artifact seems to be field work, not factory (stiffener convergence/divergence, poorly bucked surviving rivet)
- It is large for the typical 'patch' - larger than any of the many examples I got to see at Dayton, for instance, and oddly so if that's what it is because 'damage' requiring a patch of that size would more likely necessitate a skin replacement; 2-2-V-1 is almost certainly an improvised cover, in my view, for a hole that just happens to be about the same size as that of the Earhart window
- A lot of islanders were 'moving stuff around' - but where did they happen to find this piece of metal that just happens to have these particular fingerprints?
2-2-V-1 remains a large candidate for Earhart's window as I see it; she remains rich with secrets to be coaxed out. I hope the artifact reveals more and I remain excited about where that can lead us. In fact it makes me more impatient to go scour that island further. It is not hard for me to see how one can get the Gardner Island fever in the search for Earhart.
Great job, Ric, Aris and Jeff G.
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