Personally I think all the speculation about the airplane 'breaking up' so in the surf is probably way off, just MHO.
Airplanes 'break up' in two cases, mostly -
- By crashing into terra firma or water in a high energy state, and
- Being impacted by something else of a high energy state while the main structure is pinned or tied in a way that leverages the impact and prevents the relatively light ship from simply being shifted about.
I don't see much shot at that for a hapless bird sitting on that reef. At worst, IMO, a gear might have been 'pinned' (ala "Nessie"), in which case the tendency, IMO, would be that the gear would fail before feathers, wings, engines or other main structures like a fuselage would break. Then the bird as a whole, more or less, would probably - IMO - simply windmill and slide hither and yon more or less intact (albeit damaged) until it eventually found a resting place - perhaps in the deep (a natural tendency for objects in that area).
Simply put, the airframe was too tough, and too light to so easily 'break up' due to tidal forces on the reef IMHO. By comparison, the ship bears little comparison: it was quite heavy, was very much its own anchor; the tides could not dislodge it, so they nipped at it over time and took one plate and gusset away at a time until very little was left. Lighter tough structures like airplanes don't behave that way if unpinned (and I believe the Electra would have been 'unpinned', once a pinned gear - if that happened, failed).
Might it have been carwheeled, for example, breaking off tail feathers, etc? Possible, I suppose, if the surf got wild enough; but more likely I believe it would have endured a battering for as long as it managed to stay in the surf, and eventually would just be swept away, most major components still attached.
As long as these WAGs are floating around I thought I'd just throw mine in. YMMV, of course - no offense - but in my lifetime of observing many wrecks and damaged airplanes and working with the design and certification of aerostructures, I just don't see all these colorful 'break-up' scenarios as very realistic or probable. If Emily saw airplane wreckage, then most likely it was the bulk of the bird - unless just a gear that was left behind, etc.
As to 2-2-V-1 and IF it was part of the Electra in the form of the Lavatory Window 'Patch' (I'd still love to know and it's still my pet notion), I further doubt that natural forces dislodged it. It appears too robust for that, IMO, by what I can tell of the window structure and how it would have been logically covered. More likely, in my view, someone would have found the wreck - possibly submerged but reachable, and went after what they could get for salvage.
All just my own views, of course. If anyone can show us some examples of airplanes that 'broke up' after being deposited on a reef then I would happily yield, otherwise I think it is nonsense. I think there are many examples of airframe failures because of what I've outlined above - high energy impact with the ground, or by another object while being forcibly pinned in place somehow. Barring examples of it having happened elsewhere, I don't see the surf and reef themselves as highly qualified for that scenario - the light, tough airframe would - IMO - just be too easy to push around and while battering would happen, major break-up would not be so likely in my belief.
Of course none of us can get beyond speculation at this point. The only real answers can come from finding the damned airplane. The only way to find the damned airplane is to go look for it. I've said it before in the context of other artifacts, so I'll repeat it in the context of 2-2-V-1 - these things are markers on the trail - they give us confidence, or not, as to a place to look; 2-2-V-1 is to me a 'marker' that gives me reason to wonder if the Electra is nearby; to me it draws two ways: learn if it can be firmly tied to the Electra (contemporary photo evidence needed) which would be as good as finding the Electra, in some sense - and as a pointer as to where to look for the bird itself.
Just my thoughts, as long as we're on this path of speculation.
I look forward to any examples of 'airplanes that broke up like ships due to tidal forces', if they can be found. Otherwise I think we have one of three things for a 'holy grail' (airplane wreck) a) a substantially intact Electra somewhere downslope of Niku (or another reef, if we've somehow missed the mark), b) a badly battered but more or less intact Electra that managed to ditch with relatively minimal damage that then sank somewhere out there, or c) a smashed and possibly dismembered Electra that simply crashed hard either into the sea or the shallows somewhere, finally being consumed by the sea over time.
Just my own WAG speculation, of course, YMMV.