I'll even elaborate -
This piece is now so distinctive to me as likely having come out of the repaired Electra I am personally convinced that Earhart's bird 'was there'.
I also realize how controversial that thought is to many (to say the least) - and that many rational questions attach to it -
- Can it be from another source? Could be but no other rational donor makes sense for that part of the world - the vintage, character of rivet spacing, type, etc. all fit the vintage and model and all that I know about typical / rapid 'sawhorse' repair efforts such as NR16020 underwent after the Luke Field accident too well;
- Even if it is from her bird, couldn't it have been imported somehow? Yes - but that raises the quesiton "from where?" Had that been the way it was, why didn't we know of that discovery? Despite exhaustive efforts by many researchers and writers, no credible report of the Electra's remains (or other supportive material) have ever turned up elsewhere.
- Couldn't it be from another L10? Yes - there were some around Lae and New Zealand / down under doing work - I believe there is some history that supports that. But that is not anywhere near Niku, and the islanders and coasties who inhabited Gardner / Niku weren't connected to those locations.
- Couldn't it be from another type? Has to be one subject to receiving pre-WWII repair materials, must have some similar fastener sizing and stiffener spacing to L10 and must have been present-enough to Niku to have become a donor - a narrow list of which I know of no other potential members for.
- Doesn't the piece differ slightly in some regards - and even noticeably as to placement of one 'stiffener' (line of rivets)? Yes - but a repair such as done on Earhart's airplane creates a crap-shoot to some degree; in a perfect world time is taken to replace all damaged members and carefully realign all structures that were bent / misaligned in a crash - but in a hastily done 'sawhorse' repair (return to fixture not possible and the scheme was executed in about a week) removals tend to be minimized and 'sister members' are frequently simply applied over existing damage, picking up as many original holes as possible, and sometimes adding another member, such as a stiffener. Any of that can easily account for what we see.
- But we don't have a clear picture of what is described - how do we know this to be true? We don't and it cannot be sworn as absolute - but the overwhelming circumstances of context among other finds and everything this artifact has to say speaks volumes to the practiced eye: there are only very limited ways that such a unique piece of this particular set of signatures could come to rest at Niku.
Other's MMV, I realize and respect, but in my view TIGHAR has done a terrific job in going on gut-theory at first, then going to Niku and finding such as this and other complementary artifiacts. Pick another island, any island - go there and see if such a picture emerges from the random stuff there - I have severe doubts that it will happen. As I think back over the 'stuff' found it is truly amazing that a period-correct Talon zipper pull, matching jack-knife remains, plexiglass of telling thickness and contour and this particular rich piece of history (2-2-V-2) have turned-up on the same island (among other things). That someone like Tom King can view it all and realize a plausible pattern humbles me and rings true as to 'likelihoods' now to me, not just 'possibles'.
What of navigation? What about the size of the ocean (Pacific) - isn't it more likely she never made land? Not expert, but I've developed my own pet thoughts on that and even attached a different outcome by averages, realizing that 'finding one's self at Niku' can be regarded as problematic. But I have to admit it is also not beyond the pale to have arrived at Niku for reasons we will never know for certain. We do know of a comment about 'on THE line' - and where that line passes near - and I can't dismiss that one for one thing. One thing is for certain: land plane pilots and seasoned navigators don't give up easily on finding land - true then as it is now, and whatever Earhart and Noonan were, they were not without ability and brains. Yes, I have a bit of confidence in the human spirit that way, even in flawed characters.
What of post-loss radio traffic supposedly Earhart but highly questionable? I don't know if Betty or others heard Earhart or not - doesn't matter so much to me, other evidence is overwhelming now in my view. If others place more credence there (not saying I don't believe in it, just not necessary to me), bully - if not, consider the other things. If you disagree entirely, bully for you - keep searching or don't, it's up to the individual of course.
What of fuel? I think it was dicey - maybe closer than we think as I'm not fully confident that Earhart would have managed the fuel as closely as should have (speculation, of course - just a confidence factor to me).
All cinched-up by a piece of sheetmetal not unlike many I've tossed on the scrap pile - except for its truly unique character in more ways than I can enumerate here: it reads like an aviation maintenance history / Lockheed 10 repair volume to me now - the character of it is telling, but the clear 'vintage' trumps the table in my view now.
Is this a slam-dunk to end all speculation and doubt? Hardly - but those who would say 'this could be anything' need to pay more attention - they're missing or simply refusing to see a lot of crucial detail.