Jeff
The principle of the offset method is to make the offset large enough such that even if you've drifted afar you will still be on the side of the offset and know without question which way to turn when you reach the LOP. If the drift error could be as much as 260 statute miles (10% of the 2560 total miles) then a 202 miles offset would be adequate. The drift error was probably less than that since FN had "fixes" along the course from Lae to the offset point, probably.
Because of my training and background in Accident/Incident(A/I) Investigation I tend to look at this from that point of view when commenting on AE's capabilities and actions. Unfortunately, and yes tragically, all the little errors, oversights, and risks taken all piled up on the Lae to Howland leg and resulted in the tragedy. IMHO there was a lot of pressure to arrive at Oakland on the Fourth of July amid Brass Bands and wildly ecstatic worshippers (I think that George Putnam, the promoter would have seen to that). The delay at Lae also contributed to the "Get home itis". We'll never know.
I think that the "HAR" in TIGHAR stands for Historic Aircraft Recovery and hopefully it's possible to find and recover the Electra. Kinda like the Titanic, except that its location was pretty well known and eventually the technology became available to go and get it.