Gary,
All I am saying is, I wasn't around in 1937....so I do not know how accurate forecasting winds aloft was....especially in the middle of the Pacific Ocean. A Pilot knows their limitations better than anyone else. I am saying that, if I were in the position AE was in, with available Navigation at the time, I would have wanted to fly over as much land as possible until I headed out over the open ocean. Very seldom winds aloft actually were the same as forcasted when I flew long trips.
Better question might be how many 2,500 mile trips had she flown over an ocean and ended up at the right place?
And great point: Noonan didn't find Howland...did he?
Too bad AE couldn't push the mic button on her yoke and just say "Lae Ground....Electra 16020 IFR Howland Island"...and get her clearance instructions, route, initial altitude assignment, initial frequency, and her transponder code....and take off with clearance from the Lae tower. And then get those vectors to the approach at Howland....and they both live happily ever after. Not so much!