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[Anthony Allen Roach]

I'm interested in the actual temperature on Nikumaroro now, because it is July and Amelia Earhart went missing in July.  The hotter and more humid it is, the quicker she is going to die from dehydration.  People without food and water will die of dehydration before they starve to death.  I don't care about the 7 site.  It's interesting, but I have no training or background in archaeology.  If her and Noonan are dead when the Colorado's search planes fly over, there isn't going to be an answering wave.

[Malcolm McKay]

Quote from Gary LaPook and Malcolm McKay

    You people don’t seem to understand how important it is for many Tighar members to think up reasons why Amelia could not get to an opening or to the beach, take off her blouse, and wave it over her head, and be seen by any one of the 3 airplanes and 6 navy aviators looking for her in the approx 28 minutes  they were flying over Gardner island.
    The only real answer is if Amelia was already dead ( or dieing ), or if Amelia was not on Gardner, that would ruin the ‘castaway of the seven site’ theory, which would be greatly unsettling to many as then who could have opened the clam at site seven in the American way ? (certainly not any of the 25 American costies in their years at or near this site), and then there are the many fire remains to be accounted for. If AE didn’t light these fires who else could have  ? (again certainly not the costies, or the settlers, or others ) But the kicker is the turtle bones and birds eaten,,,, that by itself could only be the work of AE.
    We have to keep the legend of the castaway at the seven site alive, which means only one of two possibilities: some variation of the navy guys incompetence or Amelia finding on a ½ mile wide island some place to hike to, at just the right moment, that she can’t get out for the next approx. half hour.

Well yes, that is true but in deference to TIGHAR I would not phrase it in that way which does imply something other than a reasonable attempt to support a hypothesis. I've made my view of the criticisms of the competence of the Navy fliers and the interpretation of the Seven Site and its artifacts quite plain. In short I find neither convincing but throughout I have tried to retain an open mind.

If this trip does find wreckage identifiable as that of the Electra it will not automatically be supportive of the TIGHAR interpretations of the Seven Site and the other artifacts, or the criticism of the Navy fliers, those questions will still remain because the wreckage alone will only indicate that that's where the Electra came down, not what is purported to be the post-loss behaviour of Earhart or Noonan on the island. That will be as open to conjecture as it is now unless further supporting evidence with clear provenance is located. However I suspect that if identifiable wreckage is located then that will be sufficient to answer the question and that is all that matters.     

[Gary LaPook]

I'm interested in the actual temperature on Nikumaroro now, because it is July and Amelia Earhart went missing in July. 

Anthony, at the present time they are less than 100 miles from Nikumaroro and the temperature is 86 DEG F.

http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/UMC/Reports/KOKreport.htm

86 DEG F..hmmm. Here is what I wrote on the first post on this thread:

"According to the U.S. Navy Marine Climatic Atlas of the World. Volume V, South Pacific Ocean (1979) in the area of the Pacific around Gardner, during the month of July, the temperature stays between 81° F and 84° F for 80% of the time, goes down to 79° F for 10% of the time and all the way up to 86° F for 10% of the time, it never gets any hotter. "

gl

[Gary LaPook]

Didn't TIGHAR's flyover pretty definitively show how hard it would be to see someone on shore, even if they were jumping around waving a white flag?  It seems pretty far down the hypothetical road to me that (a) there was water near the 7 site, (b) the water was drinkable, and (c) AE was getting water when the plane went over.

It seems to me that even if (a) and (b) are true, (c) is irrelevant because the plane probably wouldn't have seen her anyway, whether on the beach or getting water.  (and that ignores the fact the the pilot thought the island was inhabited anyway)

I wouldn't say that one flyover in the helicopter "definitively" determined the probability of detecting Earhart and Noonan IF they were on Gardner. We have spent a lot of time discussing this issue and


You should also read these threads from their beginnings.

https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,517.0.html

https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,646.0.html

https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,253.0.html

https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,253.msg2550.html#msg2550

gl

[Gary LaPook]

I'm interested in the actual temperature on Nikumaroro now, because it is July and Amelia Earhart went missing in July.  The hotter and more humid it is, the quicker she is going to die from dehydration.  People without food and water will die of dehydration before they starve to death.  I don't care about the 7 site.  It's interesting, but I have no training or background in archaeology.  If her and Noonan are dead when the Colorado's search planes fly over, there isn't going to be an answering wave.

We have discussed how long they could last with very limited water. See:

https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,592.msg10855.html#msg10855

https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,592.msg10859.html#msg10859

https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,592.msg10873.html#msg10873

https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,592.msg10879.html#msg10879

gl

[Tom Swearengen]

Malcolm agreed. If electra wreckage is found, it reaaly has nothing to do with the seven site. and it does mearly show the electra was on the reef. Not how it got there, although looking around at the surroundings may hold a clue. Evidence of sliding down the reef, torn/jagged aluminum, would probably indicate being torn apart by the weight of the airframe sliding down the reef ledge.
I my mind, it doesnt necessarily proove the landing theory, but 'depending' on whats found 'may' give it done legitamacy. If if set aside, for a monent, the radio transmissions, and the other theories, and concentrate on JUST the wreckage part of this story, it becomes a fastinating adventure.
Some of us suspect what happened. Gary, and others, have their own theories. We're dealing with the Electra part of this story. Just because we 'may' find evidence of the plane on Niku, doenst mean AE was at the seven site. That, my friends, is for Tom King, Lonnie Shorrer, Dr. Malcolm and the archaeological members to figure out.
What an adventure!! is really getting exciteing!

[Jeff Victor Hayden]

A reef landing would leave a debris field from top to bottom on the 45% to 85% slope of the Gardner seamount (it is still referred to as the Gardner seamount). A drifting plane settling onto the reef slope at a given depth would not leave a debris field above the depth it settled at.
IMHO

[Dave Potratz]

Tom, with respect, IMO IF Electra wreckage is found on the Niku reef, then there may or may not be a correlation with the 7-site, and that one may reasonably conclude that further search at the latter would be a reasonable course of action.

The logic would be that IF the Electra landed on the reef and IF radio transmissions emanted from same, then AE/FN were castaways on the island.  If there were castaways on the island, then they had to spend their time somewhere.  If the castaways spent their time somewhere, then available evidence makes the 7-site a reasonable conjecture.

dp

[Anthony Allen Roach]

I was initially skeptical of Mr. LaPook's original post.  But the 86 degrees F temperature reading makes me wonder now.

I also read Mr. LaPook's reference to the Rickenbacker ditching during World War II.  I remember reading that the survivors in the raft were hot during the day, and felt cold at night.  Of course, the life rafts were exposed to direct sun during the day, and I know from my own experiences that it is hotter in the direct sun.

I also wonder whether the 86 degree F temperature reading is at night, or during the day.  I also wonder whether any large storms have cooled the area off, and what the humidity is.  When I was in the Navy, we measured temperatures using a Wet Bulb Globe Thermometer (WBGT) to get a heat index reading to determine how long people could work either topside, or in the engineroom.

[Matt Revington]

Anthony
If you look at the first couple of posts in this thread you will see that 86 temperature mentioned by GL is accurate for the daily high temperature but as per standard practice is recorded in the shade, if you see Andrew's reply to GL in the second post, he has actually worked at cutting brush on Gardner and has  a picture of a thermometer in the sun there reading 109F, as you said the direct sunlight increases the apparent temperature especially with a nearby ocean to reflect the light even more. 

[Tom Swearengen]

I would think a ship at sea would be 'cooler' than on Niku. Seems I remember an expedition where air temps were 100*.
.

[C.W. Herndon]

Tom, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, we slept on deck clad only in our skivvies it was so hot.  And even then it was miserable because of the high humidity.  We would find a place to be shielded from the wind stream as the ambient air was so hot.  Hard to do when there are 4000 Marines aboard.  We only went below deck to eat and shower when we could.  We were on water hours and could only shower every other day.  So no, it wasn't all that cool while underway or not.

Bob, I think your experience underscores what TIGHAR has had to say about the truly experienced conditions on Niku.  There's nothing like having been on the ground (or having had to live in close proximity for days on end) to know what actual conditions are vs. 'prevailing' temps as judged by other more passive means......

It appears to me by all reasonable observations, therefore, that Niku can be a very hot - even stifling place to live.

And by the way - thank you for your service: the time you describe is one more time when our vets stepped into the breach to keep us free and safe back home - THANKS!

LTM -

Amen to your last comment Jeff

[Gary LaPook]

Tom, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, we slept on deck clad only in our skivvies it was so hot.  And even then it was miserable because of the high humidity.  We would find a place to be shielded from the wind stream as the ambient air was so hot.  Hard to do when there are 4000 Marines aboard.  We only went below deck to eat and shower when we could.  We were on water hours and could only shower every other day.  So no, it wasn't all that cool while underway or not.

Bob, I think your experience underscores what TIGHAR has had to say about the truly experienced conditions on Niku.  There's nothing like having been on the ground (or having had to live in close proximity for days on end) to know what actual conditions are vs. 'prevailing' temps as judged by other more passive means.

The navy's way of arriving at what Gary's pointed out above do not seem to include actual conditions on the ground.  What's been reported by TIGHAR as on the sun-baked reef and beaches, and in the scaevola bush is very hot, and I have no reason to believe those things have somehow been mistaken or falsified.

I don't doubt that clearing larger areas so as to allow breezes to penetrate wouldn't improve things, or that prevailing temps on the open seas surrounding such places might not be more pleasant.  Unfortunately I don't think AE or FN would have had the benefit of large-scale clearing, etc. so if present, they well could have had a miserable time there.

It appears to me by all reasonable observations, therefore, that Niku can be a very hot - even stifling place to live.

And by the way - thank you for your service: the time you describe is one more time when our vets stepped into the breach to keep us free and safe back home - THANKS!

LTM -

Which is why there is no good reason for Earhart to move inland through the scaveola so staying on on the beach under the shade of the existing trees where the temps should be as predicted by the navy makes more sense. That is why I would like them to gather the temperature data from that location on this expedition. In a prior post I attached three years of weather data for all the reporting stations on New Guinea and those inland temperatures were accurately predicted by the same navy manual.

gl

[Michael Calvin Powell]

From the Ameliapedia article about Niku III: "Temperatures at the site routinely ran in the high 90s (f), and temperatures of 110 degrees (f) were not uncommon, even in the shade, but the prevailing trade winds kept the ridge relatively pleasant while the tank/hole area was always baking hot."

[Andrew M McKenna]

Searching for water and food would be a good reason to be moving around inland from the beach, but you wouldn't want to be doing it in the heat of the day if you can avoid it.  Mornings and evenings and overnight would be the best times.

You can also essentially end up "inland" on the lagoon shore by simply walking down the beach and through the passage.  You could be reseting under a tree on the lagoon shore as Gary describes, where it would be a lot harder to be spotted by the aerial search, especially if the aviators are focused on the beach.

All speculation, of course.

Andrew