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Earhart Project Research Bulletin
February 20, 2002
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RMS Titanic versus NR16020
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ssuming
one or more of the deep ocean searches actually puts to sea, what are the
chances that Amelia’s Electra will be found? As a means of getting some
perspective on the probabilities, we thought it would be interesting to
run some comparisons between the deep ocean search for the lost Lockheed
and history's most famous successful undersea quest—the 1986 discovery
of RMS Titanic. It’s apples and oranges to be sure. The technology
has improved and the sea floor in the Central Pacific is not as rugged as
the bottom of the North Atlantic, but the biggest difference, of course,
is that there was never any doubt that the Titanic was down there
somewhere within a reasonably definable area, whereas the Earhart Electra
is truly lost. Maybe it’s on the bottom of the Pacific and maybe it’s not.
All that can be said with any degree of certainty is that it came down somewhere
within an expanse of ocean and islands that represents the airplane’s maximum
estimated range from its last estimated general position. The area portrayed
here is based upon the assumptions shown and represents just over 636,000
square miles. It is a conservative estimate. (Click on the small graphic
to open the full sized map in a new window.) |
Assumptions:
- Aircraft is 100 nm from Howland at 20:13 GCT (based on strength of
last message received by Itasca).
- Four hours fuel remaining at 20:13 GCT (based on known fuel load at
takeoff, Lockheed fuel consumption tables, and known time en route).
- Altitude 1,000 ft as reported to Itasca.
- Airspeed 110 kts. Fuel consumption 38 GPH. (Twenty knots have been
subtractedc from the flight-planned cruising speed of 130 kts which
assumed an altitude of 10,000 ft.)
- Weather, scattered cumulus at 2650 feet. Wind ESE at 15 (actual weather
observation at Howland Island).
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636,000
square miles is approximately this much area:
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Constraining the search area to practical limits requires that guesses
be made about what actually happened. We at TIGHAR, for example, launched
our investigation in 1988 based upon the guess (or “hypothesis”
if you prefer more syllables) that the flight had flown down the navigational
line Earhart had said they were following and had landed at Gardner Island
(now Nikumaroro). Searches of that location have uncovered compelling,
but not yet conclusive, evidence that our guess is correct. All of the
proposed deep water searches are based upon Elgen Long’s guess that the
airplane ran out of gas very shortly after 08:43 that morning and that
it is possible to reconstruct, within searchable limits, where the airplane
was when that happened—hence, the 2,000 square mile search area.
Nauticos, in fact,
is willing to pile the guesses higher and feels that the search area can
be narrowed to a mere 500 square miles. In the 1986 Titanic search,
the primary area covered by the French research vessel Le Suroit
and the American ship Knorr, was 100 square miles, and the ship
was only found after the French sonar search had failed and Dr. Ballard’s
team aboard the Knorr decided to cover one last corner with a visual
search using the Remote Operated Vehicle (ROV) “Argo.”
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More daunting, perhaps,
than the immensity of the proposed search area is the tininess of the
target. What Ballard’s team initially found was not the sunken ship but
part of the mile-long trail of debris deposited when the ship broke up
as it sank. Not only is the lost Lockheed infinitely smaller than the
aptly-named Titanic, but there will be no traceable debris field
to stumble across even if the plane did not remain intact as Elgen Long
supposes it did – and remember, the sea floor in the proposed search
area is more than a mile deeper than where the Titanic was found.
Think of it this
way: Climb aboard a blimp and take it up to 17,000 feet (remember to put
on your oxygen mask). Look down and see if you can pick out that Lockheed
Electra parked on the airport three miles below (did you bring your binoculars?).
Now look out toward the horizon and imagine a square of countryside that’s
about 45 miles on each side. Your job is to find a crashed Electra somewhere
out there and the fastest you can go is 5 knots. Oh, and by the way, you
have to do it in the dark. And there’s an excellent chance that it’s not
there at all.
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Can’t
see that airplane? Here it is magnified 10 times:
(as if the aircraft were 380 feet long.) |
Still
not too clear, is it? Here it is magnified 20 times:
(as if the aircraft were 760 feet long.) |
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