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Author Topic: LaPook Hypothesis: Box Search around 157-337  (Read 124465 times)

Gary LaPook

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Re: LaPook Hypothesis: Box Search around 157-337
« Reply #120 on: July 14, 2012, 05:01:16 PM »

O.K., I went back and fixed it.

I'm so proud!  Two bonus points!  :D
Wow! that makes it easy. Of course it's even easier if you just look at table 8 of The American Practical Navigator which I posted back in January.

and

https://tighar.org/smf/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=555.0;attach=658

gl
« Last Edit: July 14, 2012, 07:24:57 PM by Gary LaPook »
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Gary LaPook

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Re: LaPook Hypothesis: Box Search around 157-337
« Reply #121 on: July 15, 2012, 07:25:58 PM »

Gary,
Do you know of any guidelines for searchers when the sea surface is dotted with cloud shadows, of approximately the size of Howland in AE's case?  Similarly, are there guidelines for searching for a downed aircraft in a sea with whitecaps that also approximate a floating Electra in size, that is also dotted with cloud shadow?

As the name makes clear, the National Search And Rescue Manual, concerns searching and rescuing people, not looking for islands so has no tables or information for such a search.
There are several correction tables to modify the sweep width and one is for wind and wave conditions which, obviously, includes the presence of whitecaps, see attached.

The tables do not have a listing for floating aircraft so I would approximate it by looking at something about the same size, the 40 to 65 foot powerboat tabulation, which calls out a sweep width of 13.1 NM which equates to an 80% probability of detection (POD) at half the sweep width or 6.55 NM from a fixed wing search aircraft. Looking at the fixed wing speed correction table it is clear that the sweep width table was based on a speed of 180 knots so flying slower increases the sweep width and/or the POD. Looking at the table for helicopter search aircraft it is also clear that they were based on a speed of 120 knots, about the speed of the Electra, so the helicopter tables might be more appropriate for estimating the efficacy of Earhart's search effort which I have attached. For helicopters the sweep width with 20 NM visibility is 26.6 NM, slightly greater than the 24.7 NM for the 180 knot fixed wing search. This increases the 80% POD distance from 12.35 NM to 13.3, about an extra mile. This also increases the POD for a search pattern based on 20 NM visibility from 55% to 60%.

gl
« Last Edit: July 16, 2012, 12:29:07 AM by Gary LaPook »
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Jeff Carter

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Re: LaPook Hypothesis: Box Search around 157-337
« Reply #122 on: July 23, 2012, 10:26:39 PM »

I guess we should take the fatigue correction...   
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Gary LaPook

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Re: LaPook Hypothesis: Box Search around 157-337
« Reply #123 on: October 29, 2012, 02:06:26 AM »


TIGHAR has been claiming the opposite, that Noonan and Earhart abandoned searching for Howland and continued to the southeast because they thought that they were sure to find one of the the many islands in the Phoenixs,

TIGHAR has never claimed any such thing that I am aware of, and has never held that there was any sort of 'guarantee' of landfall - just a better chance of it where 'there be lands' and that it is a possibility.  Friedell thought it at the time based on his logic of how a landplane navigator would rationally operate, as did others whom Friedell had heard from: there is 'less' land (none) with reach to the NNW of Howland; 'there be land there' to the SSE - hence the logic. But never a 'guarantee' of finding has been claimed at all.


Oh really?

I recently watched the show,  "The Real Amelia Earhart" (2006) on the National Geographic
Channel and  at 21 minutes into the show they show a chart with the LOP through Howland and
Nikumaroro

Narrator:

"Gillespie thinks it makes prefect navigational sense for Earhart and Noonan to aim for Gardner
Island, now known as Nikumaroro, located in the Phoenix Island chain."

Gillespie:

"If Earhart is lost, the only piece of information she has is that she is on a navigational line that
falls through Howland Island. She also knows there are other islands on that line so if she flies
southeastward on that line she is guaranteed of hitting land."
I have attached two video files (I broke it in half to keep the file sizes small) of this segment of the show. Turn your volume up and listen to Ric say "guaranteed of hitting land".


gl
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Tim Mellon

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Re: LaPook Hypothesis: Box Search around 157-337
« Reply #124 on: November 23, 2012, 11:39:57 AM »

You think that this is hard? Try flying a Standard Instrument Departure (SID) or a Standard Terminal Arrival Route (STAR) into or out of JFK or ORD or LAX. I have attached one example of each at Los Angles International Airport. There are 14 different STARs and 18 different SIDs at LAX, and it is similar at most large airports. These are flown thousands and thousands of times every day nationwide.


Piece of cake. The SID can't be flown without some sort of FMS, and any plane with FMS is likely to have autopilot. AE had no FMS nor GPS. The STAR requires VOR/DME, but no autopilot. AE had neither VOR nor DME. I think ded-reckoning (ded comes from "deduced") is harder, by far. But certainly not impossible.
Tim
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richie conroy

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Re: LaPook Hypothesis: Box Search around 157-337
« Reply #125 on: November 23, 2012, 05:39:50 PM »

Isn't this what it's all about proving a hypothesis.

We have, Sapiens theory, New England theory, Crash an sink theory, Name change theory, Spy theory.

This is Tighar's theory, So if Ric didn't state his belief's, What chances are there of other's believing the Niku hypothesis

Also in Tighar's defense they ! we, Are just following the evidence that is available an compared to the rest Tighar's Evidence is overwhelming in my opinion     
We are an echo of the past


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Gary LaPook

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Re: LaPook Hypothesis: Box Search around 157-337
« Reply #126 on: November 23, 2012, 07:26:43 PM »

You think that this is hard? Try flying a Standard Instrument Departure (SID) or a Standard Terminal Arrival Route (STAR) into or out of JFK or ORD or LAX. I have attached one example of each at Los Angles International Airport. There are 14 different STARs and 18 different SIDs at LAX, and it is similar at most large airports. These are flown thousands and thousands of times every day nationwide.


Piece of cake. The SID can't be flown without some sort of FMS, and any plane with FMS is likely to have autopilot. AE had no FMS nor GPS. The STAR requires VOR/DME, but no autopilot. AE had neither VOR nor DME. I think ded-reckoning (ded comes from "deduced") is harder, by far. But certainly not impossible.

Well Tim, maybe you  ;D can't fly the exemplar standard instrument departure (SID) without a flight management system (FMS) but thousands of other pilots can, and do, fly this and other similar SIDs every day without an FMS. The same with the STAR I posted, every day thousands of pilots manage to follow the series of headings listed on STARs and SIDs that are much more complex than flying  the series of only four different headings necessary to fly the standard expanding square search pattern. As I said in my post that you quoted,

"All Earhart had to do was to set the first heading into the autopilot then look out the window for twenty minutes, glancing at the clock periodically, and then repeat this after twenty minutes more and then forty minutes, etc. This is a piece of cake for the pilot. You think that this is hard?"

Tim, do you really think this is hard? If it were not possible for the average pilot to fly the standard expanding square search pattern then it would not have become the STANDARD. See flight navigation texts available here.

gl
« Last Edit: November 23, 2012, 08:16:02 PM by Gary LaPook »
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william patterson

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Re: LaPook Hypothesis: Box Search around 157-337
« Reply #127 on: November 30, 2012, 04:09:01 PM »

To gary, seems you know navigation. I do not. I believe(d) it was a given fact they flew on this line Amelia talks about in her last messages. But if I understand you right, this line curves and there was no way to follow this line to Gardner island?
Can you in laymans terms explain where she would end up if she was on that line, and flew south by Noonans compass, where exactly they would end up? How far away from the Phoenix group? Apologies for my ignorance in advance.
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John Ousterhout

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Re: LaPook Hypothesis: Box Search around 157-337
« Reply #128 on: November 30, 2012, 06:29:26 PM »

If I may offer a simplistic metaphorical example while we await Gary's response: Imagine that you've been driving across the desert, and think you've reached the location of an oasis, where people are expecting you, but it's nowhere in sight.  You look around a bit, double check your mileage and compass headings and calculations that got you this far,  conclude that you should be on it, but it just isn't there.  You're lost!  You check your map, and the only other source of water within driving range is on a 157 compass bearing line from the (missing) oasis.  There's the problem - navigating down the 157 line to find the 2nd oasis only works if you know where you're starting from, or very lucky.   Since your attempt to navigate to the first oasis failed, why think that following a 157 line from where-ever you are now is going to work any better?  If you're lost, then your starting point is at some random point on the map of the desert, and a 157 heading is most likely to lead to some other random point in empty desert.
You're going to run out of gas shortly at the end of the 157 line, and the gas burned getting there could have been used to conduct a box search for the first island, er, oasis.  At least you know there's help at your original destination.
Is being lost nearer Gardner Island better than being lost near Howland?
Cheers,
JohnO
 
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: LaPook Hypothesis: Box Search around 157-337
« Reply #129 on: November 30, 2012, 06:36:01 PM »

If I may offer a simplistic metaphorical example while we await Gary's response: Imagine that you've been driving across the desert, and think you've reached the location of an oasis, where people are expecting you, but it's nowhere in sight.  You look around a bit, double check your mileage and compass headings and calculations that got you this far,  conclude that you should be on it, but it just isn't there.  You're lost!  You check your map, and the only other source of water within driving range is on a 157 compass bearing line from the (missing) oasis. ...

You description of AE and FN's situation is not accurate, and so your conclusion is misleading.

Fred had good reasons for believing that he had dead reckoned from the time he drew the morning LOP on his map until he came to the advanced, parallel LOP that passed through Howland Island.  Flying north, then south along the line gave him his best chance to find Howland Island.  This is what the last message said they were doing.  Searching longer to the southeast (157) than to the northwest (337) makes sense to me because there is more land to the southeast than there is to the northwest.  But they are searching for Howland above all else.  They may even have stumbled on Gardner while doing a LaPook search for Howland if they began far enough to the southeast of Howland.
LTM,

           Marty
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John Ousterhout

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Re: LaPook Hypothesis: Box Search around 157-337
« Reply #130 on: November 30, 2012, 06:46:09 PM »

Marty - you're clarification is appreciated.  I seem to have over-simplified a bit too much.  I'd like to ask William if we've helped clarify his understanding of the situation?
Cheers,
JohnO
 
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Gary LaPook

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Re: LaPook Hypothesis: Box Search around 157-337
« Reply #131 on: November 30, 2012, 07:29:15 PM »

To gary, seems you know navigation. I do not. I believe(d) it was a given fact they flew on this line Amelia talks about in her last messages. But if I understand you right, this line curves and there was no way to follow this line to Gardner island?
Can you in laymans terms explain where she would end up if she was on that line, and flew south by Noonans compass, where exactly they would end up? How far away from the Phoenix group? Apologies for my ignorance in advance.

I don't think that I can make it clearer than in my prior posts.


I've been posting this since 2002.

https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,383.msg5653.html#msg5653

https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,555.msg12109.html#msg12109

https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,533.msg7166.html#msg7166

https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,571.msg10366.html#msg10366

https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,592.msg9901.html#msg9901

https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,866.msg18026.html#msg18026

https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,383.msg5656.html#msg5656

https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,805.msg16450.html#msg16450

https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,320.msg6668.html#msg6668

https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,447.msg5398.html#msg5398

https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,696.msg20882.html#msg20882

https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,440.msg5307.html#msg5307

https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,384.msg4107.html#msg4107




Also see more information about following the LOP here.

gl
« Last Edit: November 30, 2012, 10:15:51 PM by Gary LaPook »
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william patterson

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Re: LaPook Hypothesis: Box Search around 157-337
« Reply #132 on: November 30, 2012, 10:23:01 PM »

Marty - you're clarification is appreciated.  I seem to have over-simplified a bit too much.  I'd like to ask William if we've helped clarify his understanding of the situation?
I don't know. I have read pages of Mr.Lapook's reasonings and very interesting arguments with a mr.Van Asten, both disagreeing how to use bubble sextants and marine sextants and it makes my head swim. What is child's play to a pilot, is obviously hard for some to comprehend no matter how simple they try to explain it.
I think I got an answer to my question on one of Mr.Lapook's links, which I believe states that if Mr. Noonan continued south, he could make adjustments to follow the LOP, or a new LOP, I don't know the correct phrasing,  but could still be off by a circle of 110 miles around Gardner.

That would be risky, and I assume Mr.Noonan would know that risk as well.
I thought since he knew the orginal LOP, he could adjust along the way, even if the line moved.
I thought they may have tried a box search for a bit, then headed south.
They either made it to gardner or not, but I did not realize what a big risk it was to fly south.
Making box searches probably wasn't too appealing either if they tried and failed.
Thanks for the explanations and links
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Kent Beuchert

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Re: LaPook Hypothesis: Box Search around 157-337
« Reply #133 on: April 27, 2014, 11:10:28 PM »

Gary seems to believe that Howland can easily be seen from a distance of 20 miles, judging by the nature of his expanding square search pattern. From the helicopter video that demonstrates Howland not visible
from even 10 miles, I would have to believe that Ric's hypothesis would actually be the better choice.
First, I assume FN knew the Phoenix group contained larger islands (visible from much further diistances than pancake  Howland Island, and for certain knew they were plentiful in every direction. It's sort of like trying to hit a golf ball thru the leafy portions of a tree : even though the probability of the ball touching a leaf at any given position may be small (tree leafy areas are mostly air), the probability of passing thru all the leafs of a tree on a given line without hitting a leaf is quite small (from experience). So my experience as a golfer tells me that if I'm in FN's shoes and want to find land, for certain, I head for the Phoenix Island chain. Gary's assumption of the probabilities of that course of action do not seem plausible to this golfer.
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JNev

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Re: LaPook Hypothesis: Box Search around 157-337
« Reply #134 on: April 28, 2014, 06:26:54 AM »

It's awfully difficult to know what FN would have done - in fact, impossible in my view.  Gary has cited from reliable text material of the day, I believe, very often in his suppositions of these things - and I guess the box search is a method that was known.

You make good points though in that a greater set of possibilities existed, and in full context it should not be lost on the observer that the Phoenix group did offer some fair chance of alternate land fall.  I don't know what FN knew, but I suspect the fact of the Phoenix group was not lost on that navigator; similarly, I find it difficult to believe that the thought of that as a possible alternative would have been overlooked.  The navy didn't think so in 1937 - and had bothered to know what FN's contemporaries believed about the navigator's habits.  Friedell applied the logic of a landplane navigator instinctively looking for land, as opposed to the sea navigator avoiding same, in time of need.

How well charted the Phoenix islands were I'm not sure.  I believe Gardner (now Niku) was not accurately portrayed on the chart of the day.  Nonetheless, there it lay - a 'Coronado Strand' in appearance per Lambrecht, who overflew it.  Big, bright lagoon, 90 foot trees and all.  True, those islands are scattered - but they exist, and there's a better chance of landfall to SSE on LOP than to NNW, and a better chance of seeing something like Niku than Howland if in any reasonable proximity.

'Pancake' isn't a bad way to see Howland - if it can be seen at all from any reasonable distance.  None can say what 'Fred would have done' with any accuracy in my opinion, but one thing does stand out to me: given all that led up to the "on the line 157-337" call and what the books tell us of LOP navigation, and by what can be understood from Friedell's logic as to the landplane navigator, flying the line NW, thence not having found land, SE with hope - and with the Phoenix group further down as back-up if needed, a box search sounds like a loser.  Just MHO, of course. 

I'm not the navigator Gary is, but that isn't the point.  The real point is that FN can't be channeled and the box search is only one opinion, no matter how well Gary knows the subject matter.  How well it is supported in terms of what FN would likely have done must be up to the observer.  Not sure it can carry more than that unless the bird is found and supports the idea.
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