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Author Topic: What is Next?  (Read 8841 times)

Brad Beeching

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What is Next?
« on: May 06, 2012, 08:56:39 PM »

Since I seem to have a penchant for creating "What If" scenario's, let me indulge in just one more.  ::)

Ok, the expedition arrives at Niku and begins sonar mapping the area. After a few days a number of promising targets are mapped and marked for further investigation. After looking at several, the ROV hits paydirt and an identifiable remnant of the Electra is located where it is expected to be. The question of where Amelia is answered and the TIGHAR theory is proven.

1. Whats next for the Forum?
2. Will the forum members have access to the information or will we have to wait until the documentary comes out? :'(
3. I assume that some effort will be made to safeguard the wreckage in place until arrangements can be made to retrieve it correct?
4. Will TIGHAR members be able to look at the footage obtained from the expedition or will we have to wait for Ric to finish his book? ???
5. What do you think will be the extent of the debunking /discrediting effort will be once the announcement of success is made?

Thanks
Brad.

Brad

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Chris Johnson

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Re: What is Next?
« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2012, 01:41:06 AM »

Since I seem to have a penchant for creating "What If" scenario's, let me indulge in just one more.  ::)

Ok, the expedition arrives at Niku and begins sonar mapping the area. After a few days a number of promising targets are mapped and marked for further investigation. After looking at several, the ROV hits paydirt and an identifiable remnant of the Electra is located where it is expected to be. The question of where Amelia is answered and the TIGHAR theory is proven.

1. Whats next for the Forum?
2. Will the forum members have access to the information or will we have to wait until the documentary comes out? :'(
3. I assume that some effort will be made to safeguard the wreckage in place until arrangements can be made to retrieve it correct?
4. Will TIGHAR members be able to look at the footage obtained from the expedition or will we have to wait for Ric to finish his book? ???
5. What do you think will be the extent of the debunking /discrediting effort will be once the announcement of success is made?

Thanks
Brad.

1. Forum goes ballistic
2. Depends on what Ric and TIGHAR has agreed with 3rd parties
3. Do TIGHAR raise any artifacts or do they become protected and remain in situ - Can someone answer that one?
4. See 2 above
5. I can see a crashed and float theory  ::)
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Andrew M McKenna

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Re: What is Next?
« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2012, 03:16:12 AM »

Chris pretty much has it covered.

During the last expedition, each team member was required to sign a non-disclosure that granted the Discovery Channel (major sponsor) the rights to break the story in the event we discovered some definitive artifact, so none of us could discuss such a thing, should it be discovered, beyond the expedition team, not even with spouses.  I'm pretty sure Ric was prepared to confiscate all the Sat Phones on board the Naia :).  All the non-definitive artifacts were open for discussion.  Since we did not find a definitive artifact, we never had to deal with the non-disclosure issue, which as you can imagine could become very sticky.

I would imagine - I have not been privy to the negotiations - that all members of the upcoming expedition will be subject to a similar non-disclosure contract, which means that if the Electra or some definitive part thereof is found, we will all have to wait until DC (again a sponsor) breaks the story.  They want to drive folks to their webiste with the news, and deserve that traffic given their sponsorship.  DC will have lots of film of their own (as they had of our 2010 trip), that won't be released to the public, but you can imagine what parts will be included in a newly produced documentary or revamped version of the last one.  After the story breaks, I would think that lots of information will be released to the public, and some if not all of the underwater video / data will be released by TIGHAR.  I don't think we'll have to wait for Ric to complete a book.

Yes, the forum will go ballistic with speculation before, during, and after the expedition (hasn't it already?) until some sort of results get released, and then the fun starts.  If TIGHAR announces a definitive artifact, it will be indisputable (made that mistake before), so I don't think there will be much possibility of debunking.  If it is indeterminate aircraft wreckage, or some other non-smoking gun, we'll hear all kinds of reasons why we're wrong (WWII wreckage, Norwich City debris, Flight 19), nothing new there.  If we find nothing, we'll accept that as part of the scientific process of discovery, but our critics will all say "we told you so".  Not much we can do about that other than revise the hypothesis based upon what we do discover.  Null data is still data, and not finding the aircraft this time does not negate the body of archaeological and archival work that paints the picture that AE ended up at Nikumaroro.  We'll just have to widen the search pattern for the aircraft itself.

My understanding of the agreement between TIGHAR and Kiribati is that we've been granted exclusive rights to search for, recover, conserve, take custody of, and display any Earhart related artifact found within the territorial boundaries of the nation of Kiribati.  If something is found in the side scan sonar survey, they'll go look at it with an ROV, and if it seems aircraft related, TIGHAR will certainly organize a recovery mission with a plan for conservation of the artifacts, which can be an extensive and intricate process to leach the salts out of the aluminum and halt the corrosion. Think major dollars and perhaps a couple of years to really stabilize what remains.  I think everyone is imagining that the Smithsonian A&S Museum would be the ultimate destination for any definitive Electra artifacts recovered.

Meanwhile, the archaeology project on Nikumaroro will get really interesting.  To me, once we prove she was there, that's the start of the story.  Everyone will want to know what happened to her after the sound of the Colorado Search planes fades away, and I think we'll be able to fill that story in with enough funding and time on the island.  I foresee a long term project with a lot of coral rubble being turned over by trowel.

Andrew
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Brad Beeching

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Re: What is Next?
« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2012, 05:07:47 AM »

Well, that about sums it up then doesn't it? I had already concluded that DC would be be the one to "hold the cards" so to speak. I guess I have to be patient.... dang it! I have gotten a huge amount of entertainment out of reading the forum as well as learning a few things on the journey and would hate to see this venue shrivel away.

Thanks to all of you

Brad
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Tom Swearengen

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Re: What is Next?
« Reply #4 on: May 07, 2012, 05:43:35 AM »

Brad--This venue isnt going to shrivel away. Quite the contrary. I think it will be TIGHARS finest hour (gee I remember that line from somewhere). I'm going to take option C, which I'll wait and see what turns up on NIKU, but I would 'hope' that Ric will give us a secret code word in DC that woudl mean a positive find. That wouldnt be breaking any confidentiality agreements, and would cerainly increase membership and donations. Something like there is cheese on the moon, or something like that.

With his integrity, Ric probably wont do that, but it would certainly ALSO drive viewer numbers to the Discovery Channel. Just my Hope and opinion.
Tom
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Malcolm McKay

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Re: What is Next?
« Reply #5 on: May 07, 2012, 05:59:36 AM »

Well while I can understand the necessity for the commercial interests who are backing the search to get the maximum return from their investment, as an old archaeologist I hope, that if nothing is found, it doesn't descend into the farce that archaeological programs aimed at the masses have become. If there is one thing I loathe and detest it is dramatic voice overs that are there to fill in the void left by nothing really to tell, all backed by repetitive video clips - all intoned with great dramatic enunciation by some B grade celebrity. I really hope we are spared something like those awful programs that claim to have solved some ancient mystery like how the pyramids or Stonehenge were built when they could have saved the horrible expense and just phoned an archaeologist.   :(
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Andrew M McKenna

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Re: What is Next?
« Reply #6 on: May 07, 2012, 06:27:04 AM »

Malcolm

Luckily, TIGHAR has some input and rights as to how we are portrayed by DC, so I don't think that will happen.  If you saw the DC documentary that was produced after the 2010 expedition, when we came home without a definitive artifact,  I think you would agree that it was of higher quality than the shows you refer to.  While not perfect, it was at least a reasonable representation of the scientific nature of the project as a process of discovery, not simply the end game solving the mystery ala Al Capone's vault.  Have you seen it?

Andrew
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Malcolm McKay

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Re: What is Next?
« Reply #7 on: May 07, 2012, 06:44:46 AM »

One can only hope I suppose.  :-\

Still although I do hope the news (whatever it is) is not withheld too long, I do understand what the process is, and I do know that in any endeavour like this you cannot go public until the i's are dotted and t's crossed (are they misplaced apostrophes?). Haste in these matters can lead to the dreadful calamity of egg on one's face.  :)
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Tom Swearengen

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Re: What is Next?
« Reply #8 on: May 07, 2012, 11:01:16 AM »

Thats correct Malcolm. It happened to Fred Goerner several times in the mid 1960's, with hi strip to Saipan. When you search for something and mention you dug up bones, the public assumes that they are of the person you are looking for. Mr. Goerner struck out severa times in public.
TIGHAR, on the other hand, has been very methodical abou thow it goes about its business, and how it releases information. I'll admit that even I get impatient, sitting on pins & needles waiting, and waiting. But, in these times, you do not get 3 strikes, you get 2, and youre out, in the eyes of public opinion. Ric, Pat, and TIGHAR has put way to much effort in to its 20+years of research to risk a bad, early press release with definate comfirmation first. I, like others can wait alittle while longer. It will be worth it.
Tom
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Irvine John Donald

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Re: What is Next?
« Reply #9 on: May 07, 2012, 06:33:33 PM »

Gee, here's a first.....  I agree with all the previous posts.

Andrew's previous experience gives great insight, Jeff N's point is spot on, as is Malcolm and Tom.

The forum isn't going to go away of wither. TIGHAR is about the recovery of historic aircraft and not just about AE. But granted there aren't as many "romantic" mysteries.  Those are the ones that capture the public interest and the donations. TIGHAR will start a new chapter if the TIGHAR hypothesis is proven true. That chapter will be the story of what happened to AE and FN on as detailed a timeline as we can discover.  As Andrew said it will be the start of the trowel chapter. The current artifacts lend weight to the Electra having landed on Gardner. The finding of the Electra will then turn the tables and lend weight to the arguments that AE and FN survived and died on Gardner. Neither is proven at this point but both try to support each other.  The new chapter awaits.....
Respectfully Submitted;

Irv
 
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