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Author Topic: NR16020 end of the line - what happened?  (Read 38197 times)

richie conroy

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Re: NR16020 end of the line - what happened?
« Reply #30 on: December 25, 2011, 05:06:52 PM »

http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Research/Bulletins/19_Forensicupdate.html



bottom left corner open it in photoshop an mess with gradient map to get a better view of it
We are an echo of the past


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Irvine John Donald

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Re: NR16020 end of the line - what happened?
« Reply #31 on: December 28, 2011, 08:39:36 AM »

Going back to your original premise on this thread Jeff. We know from Itasca and those on Howland that they did not hear an aircraft that day. That suggests the plane wasn't overhead of Howland. How close do you need to get before your aircraft would be heard?  Is there noise from surf action?  Noise from all the birds?  Has anyone been on Howland who can say?  Any notes to the ambient noise factors?  I haven't found any yet.  Much has been said in this forum about AE and FN being able to spot Howland.  Would Fred having been sitting in the copilot seat or in back?  Where is the best viewing from the Electra for searching for land? 
Respectfully Submitted;

Irv
 
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Irvine John Donald

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Re: NR16020 end of the line - what happened?
« Reply #32 on: December 28, 2011, 02:27:59 PM »

Nice post Jeff.  Ric and other expedition members of TIGHAR have stated it was very hard to hear the helicopter over Gardner due to the surf and I presume the wind in the trees. While Gardner had/has a bird population the descriptions put forward by those in charge of Howland make a point of noting the large bird population to the point where they are requested to try to disperse them.

I also wonder about the fact that the runways are marking Howland like an "X" marks the spot. Take a look at the top down view of Marty's latest image.
http://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,560.msg7862.html#msg7862
No trees to spoil the view. Seems it should have been obvious if they got close.

Anyone who has gone to the beach or watched a wildlife show knows the birds don't generally sit around quietly. They usually are very loud.  They also travel in large formations.  I "wonder" if a large flock of white birds might not make Howland look like a cloud at a distance and from a height?  Just thinking out loud Marty.  Howland is void of trees and has a very low elevation. Did AE know that? 

Could our intrepid fliers have been close enough to see Howland but not recognize it?  If Jeff is right and they could approach as close as ten miles without being heard then as they travelled the LOP from the south then they may have missed it because they didn't know what to look for.  That was bad of me to have a sentence with "if" and "then" in it.  Sorry Marty. Just trying to think out of the box. I must go and dig around to see what data supports or dismisses these thoughts.
Respectfully Submitted;

Irv
 
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Chris Johnson

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Re: NR16020 end of the line - what happened?
« Reply #33 on: December 28, 2011, 02:33:02 PM »

IJD

ref the birds, I have often wondered if that is what attracted AE/FN to Niku? The local bird population leaving the roost to feed.
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: NR16020 end of the line - what happened?
« Reply #34 on: December 28, 2011, 03:26:02 PM »


The Birds, a good thought, however the McKean birds might have been returning to their roost and McKean was closer to Howland and not too far from 337/157.  That might have caused AE/FN to deviate to McKean.  Considering that they were flying between 0900 Howland time and noon, the birds would probably not be returning to land at that time.

The early Polynesians navigated in outrigger canoes to widely separated islands using visual sightings of rising/setting stars and memorized information passed down from previous generations to get them close to their destination and then looked for seabirds returning to their roosting island to guide them in to the island.  No sextants, no RDF.  Just detailed info about ocean currents, winds, clouds, etc. that was passed down from generation to generation to those showing the talent -and the inclination- to become  "navigators".  I read somewhere (I forget where) that the angle of suspension and frequency of oscillation of their testicles under their loin cloths played a part in their navigation along a path.  I'll have to try to find some documentartion of that.
No Worries Mates
LTM   Harry (TIGHAR #3244R)
 
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JNev

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Re: NR16020 end of the line - what happened?
« Reply #35 on: December 29, 2011, 08:28:47 AM »

No trees on Howland - and it's markedly different from Gardner in appearance (take a quick look at both via Google Earth aerial views).  I don't know that the contrast of runway to base earth there would lend much to making the island more visible.

McKean vs. Gardner and bird considerations?  Speculation on my part, but I believe McKean vs. Gardner would depend more on which spotted first than deep analysis by that point in the flight.  As to the bird factor, if they were spooked or already on the rise I suspect it would be a case of 'damn the birds, LAND'.  Not a lot of options remaining at that point, you see. 

The L10E should also have been a bit more capable of handling bird strikes than a biplane.  You could always take a devastating shot through the windshield or something, but you don't have the plethora of vulnerably exposed struts and bracing wires that a biplane has - less fear.  I guess a big frigate bird might create a hazard to a vertical fin or even the tail plane on the Lockheed, but my guess also is that odds would be that NR16020 could make it to the ground intact even in a flock of sea birds.

LTM -
- Jeff Neville

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Irvine John Donald

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Re: NR16020 end of the line - what happened?
« Reply #36 on: December 29, 2011, 08:50:39 AM »

You all know about Flight 1549 landing on the Hudson http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imDFSnklB0k[/b]]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imDFSnklB0k.  Caused by bird strikes.

I go back to another point I have made previously defending a different point. How much did AE and FN know about Howland?  Were they looking for a lush tree covered island?

Did they just miss seeing Howland because it's not really what we normally envisage as a south Pacific island?
Respectfully Submitted;

Irv
 
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Gary LaPook

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Re: NR16020 end of the line - what happened?
« Reply #37 on: December 29, 2011, 10:42:50 AM »

You all know about Flight 1549 landing on the Hudson http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imDFSnklB0k[/b]]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imDFSnklB0k.  Caused by bird strikes.

I go back to another point I have made previously defending a different point. How much did AE and FN know about Howland?  Were they looking for a lush tree covered island?

Did they just miss seeing Howland because it's not really what we normally envisage as a south Pacific island?
They had been advised to expect to see a smoke trail and a ship hard not to visualize what to expect them to look like.
gl
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Irvine John Donald

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Re: NR16020 end of the line - what happened?
« Reply #38 on: December 29, 2011, 12:27:15 PM »

Yes Gary. That smoke trail seems to be a sticky point in this forum. Only having seen smoke "plumes" in movies I believe it would be a good idea.
Respectfully Submitted;

Irv
 
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Gary LaPook

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Re: NR16020 end of the line - what happened?
« Reply #39 on: December 29, 2011, 02:42:18 PM »

Certain fan engines do exceptionally poorly with certain types of bird strikes - such was the case in the miracle on the Hudson, I believe.

Not that birds couldn't have made big problems for NR16020.  It's just that they also did not necessarily make big problems.

Yes, the elusive smoke trail... *sigh* - here we go again...

But I'll say one thing about the 'smoke trail' - by all AE did have to say that we're aware of, she didn't see it.

LTM -
It's not "here we go again" I just respond to questions as they come up. Sometimes they come up over and over again. It is easier to write a short response than to try to find the old discussion and direct them to it.

gl
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: NR16020 end of the line - what happened?
« Reply #40 on: December 30, 2011, 12:05:21 AM »

Yes Gary. That smoke trail seems to be a sticky point in this forum. Only having seen smoke "plumes" in movies I believe it would be a good idea.

I know it's best to take anything a reporter reports with as much salt as your doctor allows in your diet, but the Keane report to Associated Press from the first attempt says, " Shoshone will make smoke screen starting daybreak. Should be visible more than hundred miles" (record #1457).

Writing about the second attempt, Kamakaiwi noted, "Itasca was letting a big stream of black smoke out, streaming low over the water with the trade [sic]."  I presume that he meant "with the trade winds." 

On balance, I'd say that the boilermen probably did have some method of making large volumes of smoke for long periods of time.

LTM,

           Marty
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