Advanced search  
Pages: 1 ... 8 9 [10]   Go Down

Author Topic: Odds of Spotting Survivors from the Air  (Read 145380 times)

Dan Swift

  • TIGHAR member
  • *
  • Posts: 348
Re: Odds of Spotting Survivors from the Air
« Reply #135 on: September 03, 2013, 06:58:25 PM »

You got me Jeff.....again! 
TIGHAR Member #4154
 
Logged

Jon Romig

  • TIGHAR member
  • *
  • Posts: 102
Re: Odds of Spotting Survivors from the Air
« Reply #136 on: September 08, 2013, 07:26:26 AM »

a shoe could have washed up there in a big storm or something

Not likely.  The "shoe site" is about 100 meters inland from the lagoon shore.  The lagoon can get pretty choppy in a storm but not enough to was something that far inland.

Tighar has observed storm wash inland at (or near?) the village site. I assume this storm wash was from a significantly larger storm than Tighar has experienced on Niku. It is possible that a sufficiently large storm could over-wash much of the island, as the reef gives little protection compared to other tropical islands.

Do we know if the settlers ever experienced a direct hit from a tropical cyclone? Do cyclones even track through this part of the Pacific (my impression from the Wikipedia entry about cyclones is no) - if not, a gale is the worst Niku would ever see. Note the Norwich City encountered a "cyclonic weather disturbance" (quote from Ameliapedia) on the night of their stranding. Cyclonic wind and waves of course come from any direction, not just from the west.

Thanks,

Jon
Jon Romig 3562R
 
« Last Edit: September 08, 2013, 07:34:47 AM by Jon Romig »
Logged

Dan Swift

  • TIGHAR member
  • *
  • Posts: 348
Re: Odds of Spotting Survivors from the Air
« Reply #137 on: September 12, 2013, 01:51:59 PM »

As do Tsunamis Jon.   
TIGHAR Member #4154
 
Logged

Jon Romig

  • TIGHAR member
  • *
  • Posts: 102
Re: Odds of Spotting Survivors from the Air
« Reply #138 on: September 15, 2013, 12:12:06 PM »

So between possible large storm overwash and possible tsunami effects we cannot completely discount the shoes being moved across the lagoon and redeposited where found.

But the probability of that happening is quite low, thus Ric's "not likely" is the best answer we will get with current facts.

Jon
Jon Romig 3562R
 
Logged

Ric Gillespie

  • Executive Director
  • Administrator
  • *
  • Posts: 6098
  • "Do not try. Do or do not. There is no try" Yoda
Re: Odds of Spotting Survivors from the Air
« Reply #139 on: September 16, 2013, 09:53:19 AM »

This may help.  I put together this map showing where we have seen clear evidence of incursions of sea water inland and even over wash (yellow) and I've included the dates when the damage is known to have occurred.  The purple areas indicate where there may have been sea water incursions in the past based upon the assumption that sea water "poisons" the ground for large trees such as Pisonia grandis (Buka) and Cordata subcordata (Kanawa).

I see clear evidence of sea water incursion on the west side of the atoll, which is what we would expect.  Historically, heavy weather comes out of the west and northwest.
I see evidence of incursion along the north side of the lagoon shore and at the far end but not along the south side of the lagoon shore.
I see evidence of some incursion along the southern coastline, but no over wash except though the southern passage.
I see no evidence of incursion at either the Seven Site or the Aukeraime Shoe Site, so I think it's pretty hard to make the case that shoe parts migrated form one to the other.

Only coconuts migrate. ;D
Logged

Monty Fowler

  • T5
  • *****
  • Posts: 1078
  • "The real answer is always the right answer."
Re: Odds of Spotting Survivors from the Air
« Reply #140 on: September 16, 2013, 10:11:29 AM »

Only coconuts migrate. ;D

That depends on if they're being carried by an African or a European swallow, of course. Scientifically speaking, mind you.

LTM, who knows who was in Casper,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 CER.
Ex-TIGHAR member No. 2189 E C R SP, 1998-2016
 
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 8 9 [10]   Go Up
 

Copyright 2024 by TIGHAR, a non-profit foundation. No portion of the TIGHAR Website may be reproduced by xerographic, photographic, digital or any other means for any purpose. No portion of the TIGHAR Website may be stored in a retrieval system, copied, transmitted or transferred in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, digital, photographic, magnetic or otherwise, for any purpose without the express, written permission of TIGHAR. All rights reserved.

Contact us at: info@tighar.org • Phone: 610-467-1937 • Membership formwebmaster@tighar.org

Powered by MySQL SMF 2.0.18 | SMF © 2021, Simple Machines Powered by PHP