Odds of Spotting Survivors from the Air

[Dan Swift]

You got me Jeff.....again! 

[Jon Romig]

a shoe could have washed up there in a big storm or something

Not likely.  The "shoe site" is about 100 meters inland from the lagoon shore.  The lagoon can get pretty choppy in a storm but not enough to was something that far inland.

Tighar has observed storm wash inland at (or near?) the village site. I assume this storm wash was from a significantly larger storm than Tighar has experienced on Niku. It is possible that a sufficiently large storm could over-wash much of the island, as the reef gives little protection compared to other tropical islands.

Do we know if the settlers ever experienced a direct hit from a tropical cyclone? Do cyclones even track through this part of the Pacific (my impression from the Wikipedia entry about cyclones is no) - if not, a gale is the worst Niku would ever see. Note the Norwich City encountered a "cyclonic weather disturbance" (quote from Ameliapedia) on the night of their stranding. Cyclonic wind and waves of course come from any direction, not just from the west.

Thanks,

Jon

[Dan Swift]

As do Tsunamis Jon.   

[Jon Romig]

So between possible large storm overwash and possible tsunami effects we cannot completely discount the shoes being moved across the lagoon and redeposited where found.

But the probability of that happening is quite low, thus Ric's "not likely" is the best answer we will get with current facts.

Jon

[Ric Gillespie]

This may help.  I put together this map showing where we have seen clear evidence of incursions of sea water inland and even over wash (yellow) and I've included the dates when the damage is known to have occurred.  The purple areas indicate where there may have been sea water incursions in the past based upon the assumption that sea water "poisons" the ground for large trees such as Pisonia grandis (Buka) and Cordata subcordata (Kanawa).

I see clear evidence of sea water incursion on the west side of the atoll, which is what we would expect.  Historically, heavy weather comes out of the west and northwest.
I see evidence of incursion along the north side of the lagoon shore and at the far end but not along the south side of the lagoon shore.
I see evidence of some incursion along the southern coastline, but no over wash except though the southern passage.
I see no evidence of incursion at either the Seven Site or the Aukeraime Shoe Site, so I think it's pretty hard to make the case that shoe parts migrated form one to the other.

Only coconuts migrate. ;D

[Monty Fowler]

Only coconuts migrate. ;D

That depends on if they're being carried by an African or a European swallow, of course. Scientifically speaking, mind you.

LTM, who knows who was in Casper,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 CER.