Print

[Gary LaPook]

What is interesting about this one is the "ship on reef" which could be interpreted to mean the aircraft, commonly called a ship in the 30's, or the Norwich City, literally a ship on the reef.  South of equator, and southeast of Howland are both excellent descriptions if you don't have exact coordinates to give, your navigator has suffered a head injury or has otherwise gone bonkers, and that is all you know.

Same with the Betty notes, I find that there are quite a few oddities that in a vacuum she wouldn't have come up with, but the New York City getting repeated over and over could easily have been AE's attempt to give the best info she could on her location.  Anyone looking up the Norwich City could have figured out where it ended up.  There is logic to it in the context of Earhart that doesn't otherwise make sense.

Gary, isn't this exactly the kind of info you are arguing she would have broadcast? 


Andrew

No, the name of some ship wreck (assuming she could even determine its name) was not the best info she could give about her location. If I were Earhart I would have said that  I was on one of the Phoenix islands since it was our plan, mine and Noonan's, to fly southeast to get to that group of islands when we couldn't find Howland which is the TIGHAR theory.  Earhart and Noonan knew those islands were there or else they would have desperately continued searching for Howland (and Baker) if those were the only islands they knew about.
So after following the TIGHAR plan "B" they end up on Gardner Island, one of he Phoenix group, and after landing (safely enough so as to not damage the plane enough to prevent running the engine) do you think they suddenly forgot that they had been flying to the Phoenix islands? Why would they be sending cryptic messages about the name of a ship when they knew they were in the Phoenix's? Do you think they would try to hide the ball like they were hiding the ball when they crossed their fingers behind their backs and sent the message about their fuel state, keeping it secret that they meant until their fuel reserve? Come on!  And why didn't she write down the numbers that she says she thinks she heard since, as I pointed out before, the critical nature of location information is obvious to everybody including teenage girls?


I suggest that what Betty heard was a combination of broadcasts on close together frequencies, one fading in while another faded out, one of which talked about New York, she was tuning to an international broadcast band, don't forget, and many stations broadcast on adjacent frequencies. Those old tube radios had poor selectivity (the ability to keep out signals on close frequencies) especially on the higher frequency bands as anybody who has spent any time listening to short wave radios can attest.
And remember, even with Brandenburg's finest efforts he could only get the probability that Betty could have even have heard Earhart up only one chance in 1.4 million, about like your winning the lottery.

I have avoided getting into the weeds of radio propagation up til now but we need to look at it in regards to Betty. I have pointed out several times that Brandenburg refuses to tell us his assumptions and methods but as to his analysis of Betty he did give us some of this information. In his Harmony and Power paper he discusses the assumption he made for the required Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) and he assumed that it only required a 43 dB SNR for Betty to hear Earhart however this assumption is not warranted as it is not supported by standard reference works. I have attached two such standards and they both have the same table specifying that for a double side band AM signal, which is the kind of signal we are talking about, the required SNR is 51 dB. I know your eyes are rolling back and you are saying "what's the difference, 51..43  it's only a difference of 8, what's the big deal?" Without getting into the details of the decibel scale (you can Google it if you want) a difference of 8 dB means a power ratio of a little bit more than 6 which means that Brandenburg's computation was basically assuming that Earhart had a transmitter that put out over 300 watts instead of its actual output of only 50 watts. Or to look at it another way, in order for him to get to even the 1.4 million to one odds against Betty hearing Earhart, Brandenburg is assuming that Betty came to Earth with Jar-El from Krypton with super hearing so that she can hear a mouse fart ten miles away. If he had used the correct value of 51 dB SNR then the odds of her hearing Earhart get much worse than the already highly unlikely odds of 1.4 million against.

And do you think Earhart had to give her EXACT coordinates?

'"Chief Bellarts?
"What is it now, Galten?"
"Well, I keep hearing a woman's voice repeating just one word, 'Phoenix...Phoenix...Phoenix'"
"Oh, just ignore that, don 't even bother to log it, it's probably just some dizzy dame looking for a beauty shop in Arizona."
"Sure thing, don't log it, aye, aye."

gl

[Brad Beeching]

I have a hard time buying off on the theory that all the signals recieved were fragments of some other transmission. These people (for the most part) were trained radio operators. As such I would tend to believe they could tell the difference between a spurious signal and one that was deliberately generated, however weak and fragmented it may have been on the reciever end. As for Betty, I'm sure it was a common thing to do in the summer of 1937 for 15 year old girls to write down every "combination of broadcasts" they heard. As for all the gobble-de-gook about 14 godzillion to one odds that it didn't happen or couldn't happen is all fine and dandy, but the fact is, several proffesional radio operators across the vast Pacific heard and logged numerous transmissions from a station sending from somewhere in the South Pacific. Several of these proffesionals were equipped with radio direction equipment which they used to get a bearing on where these signals originated. Now I'm sure that these folks led such a boring life that they used this equipment to home in on "combinations of broadcasts" every day when the supervisor wasn't looking. Oh I almost forgot, these proffesional radio operators? The direction these signals originated from was somewhere in the Phoenix Island Group. If these transmissions were "combinations of broadcasts" then they all must have been sending from the same place. I'm sure somebody spent alot of 1937 coin to float some transmitters to the Phoenix Islands so they could transmit a "combination of broadcasts".

Brad

[Jeff Victor Hayden]

they were just the normal background of signals that were occurring every day but that no one took notice of prior to the search for Earhart, nor after.
This is the part that worries me. I am confident in the abilities of the professional radio operators (Navy, Pan Am etc) that picked up these signals, less so with radio 'hams' that heard garbled messages.
So, staying with the signals the profesionals picked up and, traced to their point of origin.
As Gary points out, we have no way of knowing if these signals existed prior to and, after the search.
Example: If they had continued to monitor the area for another 2 months after the disappearance would they still have heard signals that they could trace back to the point of origin, be it the Phoenix Islands or timbuktu. If so it would certainly point to the signals being part of the everyday background noise. IMHO

[Martin X. Moleski, SJ]

A body of evidence is like a chain - its strength relies on its weakest part.

In a circumstantial evidence case, the body of evidence is like a rope, none of whose fibers taken separately can bear the load, or like an aircraft, none of whose parts taken separately can fly.

[Gary LaPook]

I don't see any conflict there, Gary.  If FN wasn't certain of the place they'd landed for any reason, for example, and AE was doing the talking, it could very easily have come across the way the lady described - quite credibly so.

That AE and FN would have known of the Phoenix group and perhaps headed there guarantees nothing about them being able to identify exactly which island they had stumbled upon - which is also consistent with all that a number of us have said in the various examples you provided.

LTM -

I think you may have missed my point. I thought that I made it clear that they didn't have to identify exactly which of the Phoenix islands they had alighted upon. The example I gave of the report by Galten to Belarts should have made that clear.

Continuing that exchange:


'"Chief Bellarts?
"What is it now, Galten?"
"Well, I keep hearing a woman's voice repeating just one word, 'Phoenix...Phoenix...Phoenix'"
"Oh, just ignore that, don 't even bother to log it, it's probably just some dizzy dame looking for a beauty shop in Arizona."
"Sure thing, don't log it, aye, aye."
"Hmmm, but Chief, what if it really is Earhart that I am hearing on the radio?"
"Forget it Galten! Even if it is her, unless she tells us exactly which of those islands she is on we aren't going to do anything. We can't  go traipsing all around the Phoenix islands just for her, an' I got that straight from the capt'n. Don't bother me again unless she tells us the name of the island she is on!"
"O.K. Don't log it, aye, aye."
"Now get out of here."

You apparently believe that that scenario is realistic (or you are pretending that you do. )

gl

[Tom Swearengen]

QUESTION? In the charts that Williams prepared for Fred to use, I'm wondering if on the image of Gardner, there was any reference to the Norwich City. Since it ran aground in 1929, Mariners knew about it, but whether it was on any charts is the question that comes to mind for a couple of reasons. In the radio transmissions, there were references to NC or something 'possibly' refering to the Norwich City. Now if the radio reception was clear enough, I'm wondering if maybe the shipwreck wasnt on a map of Gardner. If 'Norwich City" was heard, seems to me that one statement could lead rescuers to the one place in the Pacific where the Norwich City was---Gardner.
Might be something I'll look into while I'm in DC-- Its kind of the rescue mission that wa, and the one that could have been . Damn 20/20 hindsight.
Tom

[Gary LaPook]

QUESTION? In the charts that Williams prepared for Fred to use, I'm wondering if on the image of Gardner, there was any reference to the Norwich City. Since it ran aground in 1929, Mariners knew about it, but whether it was on any charts is the question that comes to mind for a couple of reasons. In the radio transmissions, there were references to NC or something 'possibly' refering to the Norwich City. Now if the radio reception was clear enough, I'm wondering if maybe the shipwreck wasnt on a map of Gardner. If 'Norwich City" was heard, seems to me that one statement could lead rescuers to the one place in the Pacific where the Norwich City was---Gardner.
Might be something I'll look into while I'm in DC-- Its kind of the rescue mission that wa, and the one that could have been . Damn 20/20 hindsight.
Tom

The Phoenix islands were not on William's strip chart for the Howland to Lae leg (which I posted before here) ,  but they were depicted on every other chart of the Pacific. If you look at marine charts you will find a symbol for depicting wrecks that are hazards to navigation but they are not called out by name. The Norwich City was NOT the Titanic so what makes you think that the loss of just one more cargo ship in the far reaches of the Pacific was generally known to mariners? Nor had the charts of that area been updated after the the loss of that ship and prior to Earhart's flight. Infact, as posted elsewhere on this forum, the depiction of Gardner on the then current charts was highly incorrect and showed no wrecks. That chart is available here.
gl

[Irvine John Donald]

There is a fundamental clue I think some are forgetting.  Any message identified as coming from AE means she is alive.  She can't transmit if she is dead so transmitting her Lat and Long is handy but the key is she IS transmitting.

If you hear the voice of AE, or believe it to be a message from AE then keep searching until she is found!!  Even if all she did was recite the alphabet it is proof she is alive.  It means, if you believe in the post loss messages, that she is on land.  She isn't on Howland so get out the charts and search the few islands in the immediate are.  Search and re search every inch of land.  She didn't crash and sink.    That is if you believe in the post loss messages. 

But Let me take a page from Gary's style book:

"I'm sorry Chief Bellarts!!  Until Amelia identifies where she is in one of these messages then no one is going to look for her."
"But Sir!  We know its her voice so that means she is alive!!  We must get help to her! "
"Sorry Chief but we all know a message must contain legible information about where a person is who wants to be rescued.  Otherwise we must assume its a hoax radio call."
"But Sir, we know what her voice sounds like, its the right frequency, a radio message means her plane is on land, she is asking for help.  Lets go help her"
"Darn it Chief!  Get back on radio watch and ask Amelia if she could please give us some clues as to where she is.  Cryptic or otherwise.  We can't go looking until we know where she is.  If she doesnt tell us soon we will have to abandon the search."
"But Sir!  She is alive!"
"Okay Chief.  If she doesn't tell us where she is pretty soon then we are all going home and we will say her plane must have run out of fuel and crashed.  A distress message message must contain location information even if we know it's the person we are looking for."

Said with "tongue in cheek".

[Jeff Victor Hayden]

Is this the map Gary?



http://tighar.org/smf/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=549.0;attach=496

[Irvine John Donald]

QUESTION? In the charts that Williams prepared for Fred to use, I'm wondering if on the image of Gardner, there was any reference to the Norwich City. Since it ran aground in 1929, Mariners knew about it, but whether it was on any charts is the question that comes to mind for a couple of reasons. In the radio transmissions, there were references to NC or something 'possibly' refering to the Norwich City. Now if the radio reception was clear enough, I'm wondering if maybe the shipwreck wasnt on a map of Gardner. If 'Norwich City" was heard, seems to me that one statement could lead rescuers to the one place in the Pacific where the Norwich City was---Gardner.
Might be something I'll look into while I'm in DC-- Its kind of the rescue mission that wa, and the one that could have been . Damn 20/20 hindsight.
Tom

The Phoenix islands were not on William's strip chart for the Howland to Lae leg (which I posted before, I just can't find the link to it right now) but they were depicted on every other chart of the Pacific. If you look at marine charts you will find a symbol for depicting wrecks that are hazards to navigation but they are not called out by name. The Norwich City was NOT the Titanic so what makes you think that the loss of just one more cargo ship in the far reaches of the Pacific was generally know to mariners? Nor had the charts of that area been updated after the the loss of that ship and prior to Earhart's flight. Infact, as posted elsewhere on this forum, the depiction of Gardner on the then current charts was highly incorrect and showed no wrecks. That chart is available here.
gl

Just because the Phoenix Islands weren't on the Williams Strip chart doesnt mean FN didnt remember them being on other charts or had another larger scale, general purpose map.  Not being on the Williams charts doesn't remove them from the planet.

The Norwich City wreck was likely known to local mariners and natives.  AE didnt care who got her message.  In fact she likely didnt realize her messages would be heard in Florida.  She knows the voice transmissions dont go as far as morse so she likely suspected any radio message she put out would only be heard relatively locally.  And, Guess What?  She probably wants someone local to hear her as they can get to her sooner than someone in Hawaii or California.

and finally.  Gary are you honestly suggesting the shape of the island as drawn on a chart has anything to do with her not being found?  There was land at Gardner regardless of how its drawn on a chart.

[Gary LaPook]

Is this the map Gary?



http://tighar.org/smf/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=549.0;attach=496

Yep, thanks for finding it.

gl

[Tom Swearengen]

Hey  Gary. I was 'theorising" that the Norwich City was known to mariners. I looked for the map, but didnt find it, but I'll look again.
Crazy as it may seem, I'm trying to corrolate Bettys notebook, the radio transmissions that we  believe are accurate, and the search that did NOT take place, and figure out why. So---I was thinking about the shipwreck, and if it were on the charts, and if so , on Williams charts for Noonan. If not, ok,  back to where we are, but if they were, and after the 'landing' AE was able to read "Norwich City" on the ship, she would know where they were, instead of just on an island somewhere. Part 2--If she were to find the name of the shipwreck, and the island was Gardner, then why not broadcast 'Gardner Island'? That certainly would have hastened the search to Gardner by a couple of days--maybe July 5. 
I'm taking it as the NC was a 'landmark', on Gardner Island, in the Phoenix Group in the Pacific, south of Howland. I would think that if you were wanting to guide rescuers to you, and you had a landmark that was 'known', that would be a good thing to broadcast.  But, if the shipwreck wasnt on the maps or charts, maybe Fred, even though he was 'familiar' with the pacific islands, didnt know about the shipwreck.
Good information Gary----and I'll keep looking around. We can talk about it ---and other things in DC. It will be good to meet you!
Tom

[Jeff Victor Hayden]

Sounds logical Tom. If AE could have got 'there's a shipwreck on the reef' message heard it would have been a great help to any search planes even if they didn't know which island it was on or, what it's name was, it would have helped lambrechts fliers for sure.

[Gary LaPook]

QUESTION? In the charts that Williams prepared for Fred to use, I'm wondering if on the image of Gardner, there was any reference to the Norwich City. Since it ran aground in 1929, Mariners knew about it, but whether it was on any charts is the question that comes to mind for a couple of reasons. In the radio transmissions, there were references to NC or something 'possibly' refering to the Norwich City. Now if the radio reception was clear enough, I'm wondering if maybe the shipwreck wasnt on a map of Gardner. If 'Norwich City" was heard, seems to me that one statement could lead rescuers to the one place in the Pacific where the Norwich City was---Gardner.
Might be something I'll look into while I'm in DC-- Its kind of the rescue mission that wa, and the one that could have been . Damn 20/20 hindsight.
Tom

What is you source for your statement that "Mariners knew about it?" There are thousands of wrecks around the world and very few get any notoriety. Quick! A ship went aground just four months ago with loss of life, what's it's name?  Maybe you remembered that one but that was after 24/7 TV coverage and follow up TV specials. There was no TV in 1937. Do you think that Noonan was reading Lloyd's List in 1929? Do you think that Lloyd's List is commonly read by mariners?
But assuming, arguendo, that you are right, transmitting "Norwich City" does not prevent Earhart from also transmitting "Phoenix" which is more likely to be known than that some obscure steamer ran aground somewhere in the pacific eight years earlier. Yet not one of the purported messages, neither voice nor Morse code, contain the word "Phoenix."

Here is a link to the marine chart used by Noonan on the Atlantic crossing, see any wrecks depicted? See any wrecks with names attached? Here is a link to more of that chart showing Noonan's notations.

Noonan most likely got this additional information to add to his chart from other publications commonly used by mariners, the Sailing Directions and the Light Lists and the information in his notation from the Light List. It is possible that Noonan consulted the Sailing Directions for the Pacific as part of his planning so may have obtained additional information about Gardner island from this source. I have attached an excerpt from the 1885 Sailing Directions for Gardner. These publications are only updated sporadically so it is possible that this document had not been updated prior to the Earhart flight. You will see that it doesn't state the size of the island and that is misplaces the island 12 NM west of its actual position. Even if it was updated after the wreck of the Norwich City, it would not have included the name of the vessel as the information about conspicuous wrecks is provided only for navigational use by mariners. I have attached an excerpt from the 1988 Sailing Directions which mentions the "conspicuous wreck" at the NW end of the island for use by mariners to avoid the reef. A mariner, observing just the wreck above the horizon, knows to keep well to the west or to the  north of this landmark to avoid the reef. The mariner has no need to know the name of the vessel to do this.

gl

[Gary LaPook]

Just because the Phoenix Islands weren't on the Williams Strip chart doesnt mean FN didnt remember them being on other charts or had another larger scale, general purpose map.  Not being on the Williams charts doesn't remove them from the planet.

Of course not, the entire TIGHAR theory is based on Earhart and Noonan knowing about their existence as I pointed out before. Because they knew of their existence they headed there when they couldn't find Howland (according to TGHAR) so they would also remember their name after landing and could transmit that information in their emergency messages, but they didn't. So if you think that they didn't know the name of the island group where they landed, so as to be able to transmit that information, then you have a direct conflict with the TIGHAR theory which requires that they knew that information.

The Norwich City wreck was likely known to local mariners and natives. AE didnt care who got her message.  In fact she likely didnt realize her messages would be heard in Florida.  She knows the voice transmissions dont go as far as morse so she likely suspected any radio message she put out would only be heard relatively locally.  And, Guess What?  She probably wants someone local to hear her as they can get to her sooner than someone in Hawaii or California.

But there were no local mariners or natives.

and finally.  Gary are you honestly suggesting the shape of the island as drawn on a chart has anything to do with her not being found?  There was land at Gardner regardless of how its drawn on a chart.

No, that was only to illustrate that no ship wreck was depicted with, or without, a name attached.

gl