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[Malcolm McKay]

However you have imposed a condition on those 45 that says, to be credible, the messages must provide a location.  Why?  Because others agree that putting a position in the message is important?  That doesn't make it not credible.

So it is more credible for Earhart, who everyone claims is down on a reef with the tide rushing in and Fred Noonan going bananas, to crank up the radio and mention New York City and a suitcase in a wardrobe but not where she is broadcasting from? I don't know about you but that just doesn't make it credible to me.

[Irvine John Donald]

Well in response to both Gary and Malcolm, i guess all 182 hoaxers also forgot to include positions in their reports.  Heck, let's just boil it down to the 45 that Gary suggests. All 45 faked or non credible calls have no position.

So we have either a bunch of fakers who all forgot to give position or we have one who forgot, if she even knew it. Based on your theory about most people would report position then is it likelier one forgot or all 45?

You didn't answer my questions on who these fakers are or how they created messages tracing back to the Phoenix group.

If you're going to advance your own theory on the post loss signals then your theory needs to be tested. Just stick with the 5 messages for now all originating from the Phoenix group.  Who mounted the expedition to take a radio there?  Did someone suspect AE was not going to find Howland weeks in advance in order to get a radio transported there?  Why did they do this?

[Malcolm McKay]

I have said this once before, however I will say it again. The validity of the radio messages is as much dependent on Nikumaroro being demonstrated to be Earhart's landing spot as is their validity as genuine radio messages which reflect that situation.

Now while that sounds awfully obvious it isn't really because we have a situation where each of the components of the Earhart/Nikumaroro hypothesis have to be tested individually as they are all dissimilar phenomenon, each with their own individual set of physical and psychological features, in the chain of circumstances that creates the hypothesis.

Now we are all aware that the process isn't aided by the hoaxes, the utter disregard for the urgency of accurate information by the radio and print media (nothing new there), the misunderstandings of the March of Time program and the general level of background radio noise that is bouncing around at the time. Furthermore their validity is not helped by the need to second guess every part of Betty's notes (or anyone else's for that part) to say what the Nikumaroro hypothesis demands rather than what the notes actually say. The moment when you start reading a purported eyewitness account and have to start saying "Well this is probably what she heard ..." rather than just accepting that she heard what she said she heard is the moment you have departed company with logic and are creating a hypothesis out of whole cloth. Has anyone considered seriously that what she noted was what she heard, which means why on Earth is Amelia Earhart rabbiting on about a suitcase while claiming that Fred's getting stroppy. If that doesn't indicate a hoax by someone with a mordant sense of humour nothing does.   

As for the need of the hoaxers to transmit some actual locations, they have no need because they only want to fool the audience and have a bit of sick fun. While on the other hand if Earhart or Noonan is actually responsible for some of the messages then they go out of their way not to tell us anything - in other words on the one hand you have sick idiots and on the other needy idiots who don't tell us where to find them. And people wonder why some of us view the radio traffic with a raised eyebrow.

The Navy dutifully does a search - one of the islands is Nikumaroro and they don't see anything at all. Now some 75 years later we are second guessing them and saying well perhaps the surf was up and the wreckage was probably hidden, and the observers didn't know what they were doing or Amelia and Fred are passed out under a tree and can't be seen, or they wave but no one sees them etc. etc. etc. Wonderful excuses to explain away the very real possibility that they weren't on Nikumaroro to be seen. Calm down everyone, that's just silly old me being logical and looking at the evidence.

If TIGHAR find the wreck or bits of it, or they find something quite incontrovertibly linked to the pair on or near Nikumaroro  then that will validate some small part of the radio traffic (only that however which can be 100% linked to the island's location) - but as no one has found that vital evidence then the radio messages are really about as useful or as uncontaminated as the other ethereal medium, the psychics who plagued George Putnam with messages from the other side.   

[Martin X. Moleski, SJ]

The Navy dutifully does a search - one of the islands is Nikumaroro and they don't see anything at all.

That is not what the lead pilot said.

"From M’Kean the planes proceeded to Gardner Island (sighting the ship to starboard enroute) and made an aerial search of this island which proved to be one of the biggest of the group. Gardner is a typical example of your south sea atoll … a narrow circular strip of land (about as wide as Coronado’s silver strand) surrounding a large lagoon. Most of this island is covered with tropical vegetation with, here and there, a grove of coconut palms. Here signs of recent habitation were clearly visible but repeated circling and zooming failed to elicit any answering wave from possible inhabitants and it was finally taken for granted that none were there."

If you wish to discuss this further, there is an extant thread that you may read and comment on.

[Malcolm McKay]

The Navy dutifully does a search - one of the islands is Nikumaroro and they don't see anything at all.

That is not what the lead pilot said.

"From M’Kean the planes proceeded to Gardner Island (sighting the ship to starboard enroute) and made an aerial search of this island which proved to be one of the biggest of the group. Gardner is a typical example of your south sea atoll … a narrow circular strip of land (about as wide as Coronado’s silver strand) surrounding a large lagoon. Most of this island is covered with tropical vegetation with, here and there, a grove of coconut palms. Here signs of recent habitation were clearly visible but repeated circling and zooming failed to elicit any answering wave from possible inhabitants and it was finally taken for granted that none were there."

If you wish to discuss this further, there is an extant thread that you may read and comment on.

I'll take it here thank you - by nothing I refer to Earhart or Noonan waving or putting out markers of some sort, not to what is probably vestiges of the Norwich City survivors' camps. I see my shorthand has confused you but I suspect that most would understand that I was referring to the Earhart issue.

[Martin X. Moleski, SJ]

I see my shorthand has confused you but I suspect that most would understand that I was referring to the Earhart issue.

 I was, too.

Your theory is conceivable, but, in the absence of further detail, it is also conceivable that the "signs of recent habitation" were produced by Earhart and Noonan.

The vegetation on the island rapidly covers cleared areas.  TIGHAR has seen this at the Seven Site.

After eight years, it seems to me to be unlikely that the the Norwich City camps would provide "signs of recent habitation."

YMMV.

[Malcolm McKay]

Your theory is conceivable, but, in the absence of further detail, it is also conceivable that the "signs of recent habitation" were produced by Earhart and Noonan.

The vegetation on the island rapidly covers cleared areas.  TIGHAR has seen this at the Seven Site.

After eight years, it seems to me to be unlikely that the the Norwich City camps would provide "signs of recent habitation."

YMMV.

There is also the possibility of unrecorded visits in the period from 1929 to 1937. Islanders on long trips perhaps blown off course, the possible castaway that might account for the skeleton found in Gallagher's time etc. I recall that somewhere on the forum in a reply Ric (I think) mentioned one TIGHAR trip to the island where footprints and a firearm were found. Not all travel in the Pacific is well-regulated or adheres to shipping timetables.

[Heath Smith]

After eight years, it seems to me to be unlikely that the the Norwich City camps would provide "signs of recent habitation."

What about the life boat? Didn't it weight something like 1,800 lbs? That seems like a pretty big object and from the 1938 photo appears to be exposed. From the air it might be difficult to see the condition.

Do we know if this was located near the NC wreck or elsewhere? If it was located near the NC they probably would not have declared to this to be a recent sign of habitation.

[Martin X. Moleski, SJ]

There is also the possibility of unrecorded visits in the period from 1929 to 1937. Islanders on long trips perhaps blown off course, the possible castaway that might account for the skeleton found in Gallagher's time etc. I recall that somewhere on the forum in a reply Ric (I think) mentioned one TIGHAR trip to the island where footprints and a firearm were found. Not all travel in the Pacific is well-regulated or adheres to shipping timetables.

That quotation is from me, not Ric.

It came from an interview done in Fiji in 2003.

In other words, I am well aware of the uncontrolled nature of the Niku environment.  I collected that story and recounted it precisely to make that point.

I am point out the illogic of saying that because the search flight didn't see anybody waving at them, we may (or must) conclude that the "signs of recent habitation" had nothing to do with the crew.  Search aircraft miss people waving at them all the time.

[Andrew M McKenna]

Heath,

this Map shows the location.  It is the red arrow pointing towards the notice board.

The map does not indicate the site of the NC life boat, only the location of the NZ Survey camp.  One would presume that the camp is likely near of co-incident with the NC survivor camp, but I don't think we've ever been able to establish that. 

We've looked for the life boats, but haven't found one yet.  The general consensus is that if they were useable or repairable, they would have been put to use by the colonists.  Not much is more valuable than a boat when you live on a coral atoll.

Andrew

[Martin X. Moleski, SJ]

I thought that the photo of the life boat showed it next to the notice board for British Pacific Airway which is the upper arrow of the two that point towards the camp?

[Andrew M McKenna]

Ahhh, I see it now.  Do we know this is the Notice Board?  Do we know what the sign says?

Probably been discussed in the past while I wasn't paying attention.

Andrew

[Martin X. Moleski, SJ]

Ahhh, I see it now.  Do we know this is the Notice Board?  Do we know what the sign says?

I don't know whether it is the Notice Board, nor do I know what the sign says.

I just figured that it might be the image in question.

Probably been discussed in the past while I wasn't paying attention.

Same here.

I'm pretty sure TIGHAR has been through that area a few times.

There was some sentiment expressed in EPAC to search for "camp 0" for Earhart and Noonan.  IF they landed near the Norwich City, and IF they found the remains of camp 1 or camp 2 for the Norwich City survivors, and IF they left anything there, and IF the natives didn't find what they left, and IF TIGHAR hasn't been over the ground with metal detectors already, then it might be worth attempting on some subsequent archeological expedition.

I don't have a firm idea of where the 1897 coconut operations took place or where the colony's coconut plantations were located.  If they were in the vicinity of the Norwich City, all traces of camps prior to 1939 may now be lost and gone forever.

[Martin X. Moleski, SJ]

Extract from 2001 expedition report

Today they will dedicate the Norwich City plaque around 10 a.m. -- that's in sector WB09. Then they will go to take a close look at the Arundel structures in WE11 to see if any of the construction type materials found at the Seven site can be matched to items there.

2001

Didn't Gallagher suggest that there was a coconut grove 1 1/2 to 2 miles from the Seven site?

Poor wretch

Thanks, Chris!

[Martin X. Moleski, SJ]

As my old teacher said in a report "he's a sponge but I wish he would soak up what he needs to pass and not trivia that has nothing to do with his studies"

Sounds like a man who was on your side.   

I consulted the map with gridmarks.  This is a rough approximation of where WE11 seems to end up: