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Author Topic: Was Fred Noonan injured in the Landing  (Read 78912 times)

Andrew M McKenna

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Re: Was Fred Noonan injured in the Landing
« Reply #30 on: April 23, 2011, 02:21:45 PM »

Don Asks "When the tide is out are the inlets to the lagoon dry so as you can walk across them "easily"?"

The main inlet to the lagoon by the old village is never fully dry. At high tide it can get chest deep or deeper in places, and the current runs pretty strong between high and low tides.  At low tide, there are still areas that can be about 4 ft deep, so definitely a body of water that can be crossed, although not necessarily without a shark induced adventure.  If you haven't seen Mark Smith's video of crossing the channel, check it out
Mark's Shark Encounter

As for Baureke passage, it is much more shallow, and sometimes entirely dry.  In 2001, it was completely dry, but was again open to the lagoon in both 2007 and 2010, and easily crossed.

From the shipwreck clockwise around to the 7 site on the beach would probably only take a couple of hours.  The presumption is that after the USS Colorado's search planes flew off, eventually AE / FN would have begun to explore the rest of the island.  Water would definitely be a problem.  Down by the 7 site is where turtles nest, and I would think turtle eggs might be a good source of both protein and moisture.

Andrew
« Last Edit: April 23, 2011, 04:39:11 PM by Andrew M McKenna »
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Dan Swift

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Re: Was Fred Noonan injured in the Landing
« Reply #31 on: April 24, 2011, 08:06:53 PM »

I know it's late in the threads, but trust me, Amelia knew how to adjust the mixture on those engines.  But, at 1,000 feet, she would have been full rich and eating the gas.  And I would imagine she stayed low trying to find Howland....and later anywhere to set the Electra down.  Climbing would have used more fuel...so I don't imagine that happened.  Again, speculation.  But she (any pilot) knows how to adjust the mixture for max performance.  Even before EGT guages, you can do it by RPM's fairly easy.   
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Irvine John Donald

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Re: Was Fred Noonan injured in the Landing
« Reply #32 on: April 24, 2011, 10:23:38 PM »

A speculative thought......since we're all good at that!   ;D

What do we feel the likelihood is of Fred becoming incapacitated to one degree or another while in ...

That's an interesting thought. I believe the reason it's suspected that Fred is injured is from Betty's notes and other reports from radio messages. I believe it was the Larabee report .....

have you got a link?

Hi Chris. I got the name wrong on the report. It is Mabel Duncklee's letter to Ric that reports AE reporting on the radio that she was on an uncharted island and that Fred was seriously hurt. I hope I am posting the link correctly. http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Documents/Letters/Duncklee.pdf
Respectfully Submitted;

Irv
 
« Last Edit: April 24, 2011, 10:27:12 PM by Irvine John Donald »
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Irvine John Donald

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Re: Was Fred Noonan injured in the Landing
« Reply #33 on: April 24, 2011, 10:35:32 PM »

That link worked. It takes you to a 5 page PDF of Mabel Duncklees letters to TIGHAR.

Page three has the most pertinent details. She says she hears AE on her home radio saying the aircraft had been landed half on land and half in water on an uncharted island and Fred was seriously injured and she was also injured.

If this letter is to be believed then those details alone would match the TIGHAR theory. The comment that the island is uncharted would explain the lack of an island name in any radio messages. This letter also says a lat- long position was given but no action was taken and the position, although written down at the time, was lost over the years. How much credibility do these letters have?
Respectfully Submitted;

Irv
 
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Was Fred Noonan injured in the Landing
« Reply #34 on: April 25, 2011, 06:08:51 AM »

How much credibility do these letters have?

Mable Dunklee (previous married name Larremore) wrote to me very early in the project (1990), ten years before we learned about Betty's Notebook and long before we had developed any detailed information about the post-loss radio signals.  She was 84 years old at the time and had a difficult time getting our mailing address or phone number, but she persisted.  Her first letter arrived certified mail / return receipt. I subsequently talked to her on the phone.  There is, of course, no way to know the accuracy of her recollections but I can attest to her absolute sincerity.  Like Betty, she was haunted by what she believed she knew and terribly frustrated that no one had ever really listened to what she had to tell.
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Don Dollinger

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Re: Was Fred Noonan injured in the Landing
« Reply #35 on: April 25, 2011, 10:10:00 AM »

Quote
Don Asks "When the tide is out are the inlets to the lagoon dry so as you can walk across them "easily"?"

The main inlet to the lagoon by the old village is never fully dry. At high tide it can get chest deep or deeper in places, and the current runs pretty strong between high and low tides.  At low tide, there are still areas that can be about 4 ft deep, so definitely a body of water that can be crossed, although not necessarily without a shark induced adventure.

Thanx Andrew.  Precisely why I asked the question.  Would speculate (that nasty word again), that they had some inkling of the basic geography of the island from the flyover, specifically the lack of inlets to the sea on the NW shore.  Would think that it would uninviting enough to attempt to cross the main passage that anyone unfamiliar with that particular feature would go the other way around the island to explore.  That would put the stay at the fire feature where the shoes were found likely, AFTER a brief stay at the 7 site.  It never made sense to me before as a temporary bivouac site on the way to the 7 site which although it was never stated I assumed that was what it was.

Why this matters is because if there are injuries on either of our intrepid crew I see them doing what is necessary to survive but taking the easiest route available to accomplish it especially if injured.  I can better quantify it in my mind as, they strolled for a couple of hours and came upon the 7 site then to cross all the inlets, camp for the nite, and then continue up around the southen end of the island and then continued north to the 7 site.

LTM,

Don
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Simon Dresner

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Re: Was Fred Noonan injured in the Landing
« Reply #36 on: April 25, 2011, 11:36:54 AM »

Don Asks "When the tide is out are the inlets to the lagoon dry so as you can walk across them "easily"?"

The main inlet to the lagoon by the old village is never fully dry. At high tide it can get chest deep or deeper in places, and the current runs pretty strong between high and low tides.  At low tide, there are still areas that can be about 4 ft deep, so definitely a body of water that can be crossed, although not necessarily without a shark induced adventure.  If you haven't seen Mark Smith's video of crossing the channel, check it out
Mark's Shark Encounter

As for Baureke passage, it is much more shallow, and sometimes entirely dry.  In 2001, it was completely dry, but was again open to the lagoon in both 2007 and 2010, and easily crossed.

Sea levels globally are now about 15 cm higher than in 1937. It also depends on whether an area is rising or falling geologically, but islands in that area are known to be gradually flooding. The Baureke passage would likely have been completely dry at low tide in 1937.
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Irvine John Donald

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Re: Was Fred Noonan injured in the Landing
« Reply #37 on: April 25, 2011, 01:44:44 PM »

How much credibility do these letters have?

Mable Dunklee (previous married name Larremore) wrote to me very early in the project (1990), ten years before .......

Thanks very much Ric. Your knowledge and experience inn these matters helps considerably for us newcomers.  Mabel's story comes across as sincere and I can't help but wonder what the recorded Lat Long would have pointed to.  If she was making it up then it was a pretty detailed tale that happens to fit the TIGHAR theory pretty closely. Hard to make that stuff up unless you had an idea of what TIGHAR was thinking. When you received her letter had TIGHAR published a theory?  Could this perhaps have helped the witness (Mabel) reconstruct the way she wanted.

Since this was 10 years before Betty's notes could Mabel's letters have conditioned Betty's recollections? 

What I'm getting at is this.  Do we have two people who are not connected coming up with similar stories, years apart, or is this the power of suggestion working on people seeking some attention?  Can it be shown that they reported their recollections independently of each other or are we still having some doubts about authenticity?
Respectfully Submitted;

Irv
 
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Was Fred Noonan injured in the Landing
« Reply #38 on: April 25, 2011, 02:00:00 PM »

When you received her letter had TIGHAR published a theory?  Could this perhaps have helped the witness (Mabel) reconstruct the way she wanted.

It was 1990.  We had received some newspaper publicity about our 1989 expedition. Our general theory that the flight had reached Gardner Island was , of course, described in the press coverage.

Since this was 10 years before Betty's notes could Mabel's letters have conditioned Betty's recollections?

No.  Betty knew nothing about Mable when we interviewed her in 2000.

Do we have two people who are not connected coming up with similar stories, years apart,

Not two people.  At least six people - Mable Larremore, Thelma Lovelace, Dana Randolph, Nina Paxton, Mrs. Crabb, Betty Klenck.
 
Can it be shown that they reported their recollections independently of each other or are we still having some doubts about authenticity?

They're definitely all independent of each other and all are credible with the possible exception of Nina Paxton.  She's a tough case.  Over the years her story got more and more elaborate and far fetched.
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Irvine John Donald

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Re: Was Fred Noonan injured in the Landing
« Reply #39 on: April 25, 2011, 02:22:56 PM »

Thanks again Ric.

It's hard to believe with all the available evidence that TIGHAR is still trying to prove their theory. With all the physical evidence collected from the island, the years of gathering statements from witnesses, the experiments to prove theories and all the other experiments that disprove some of TIGHAR's theories, why hasn't the mystery been deemed as solved?  Who will determine that it has been officially solved?  The Government?  Some global body?  Public opinion?  The media? ( please not them). TIGHAR itself?
Respectfully Submitted;

Irv
 
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jack dunn

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Re: Was Fred Noonan injured in the Landing
« Reply #40 on: April 26, 2011, 05:33:20 AM »

I think you could probably apply physics, use many variables, use a simulator or a crash test dummy to see the injuries that could possibly of occurred. Noonan was probably strapped in, the reason I say that is that he'd experienced a crash during the first
round the world flight, thats assuming he learnt from that experience. Don't forget if that is part of the landing gear lodged in Bevington's photo, then there would have been a very sudden hault to the plane, the passangers would have been catapulted
forward.
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Don Dollinger

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Re: Was Fred Noonan injured in the Landing
« Reply #41 on: April 26, 2011, 08:01:11 AM »

Quote
It's hard to believe with all the available evidence that TIGHAR is still trying to prove their theory. With all the physical evidence collected from the island, the years of gathering statements from witnesses, the experiments to prove theories and all the other experiments that disprove some of TIGHAR's theories, why hasn't the mystery been deemed as solved?

Unfortunately, although all the evidence is of the age and type of what one would expect AE would use, the evidence is not AE specific.  Without DNA or some other smoking gun there is no way to say without a shadow of a doubt that it was left there by her.  Now finding the Electra, that would be a different story.

LTM,

Don
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Bill Lloyd

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Re: Was Fred Noonan injured in the Landing
« Reply #42 on: April 26, 2011, 06:53:20 PM »

It's hard to believe with all the available evidence that TIGHAR is still trying to prove their theory. With all the physical evidence collected from the island, the years of gathering statements from witnesses, the experiments to prove theories and all the other experiments that disprove some of TIGHAR's theories, why hasn't the mystery been deemed as solved?  Who will determine that it has been officially solved?  The Government?  Some global body?  Public opinion?  The media? ( please not them). TIGHAR itself?
Unfortunately, although all the evidence is of the age and type of what one would expect AE would use, the evidence is not AE specific.  Without DNA or some other smoking gun there is no way to say without a shadow of a doubt that it was left there by her.  Now finding the Electra, that would be a different story.

All of the evidence presented thus far is circumstantial and although it is cumulative and suggestive, it does not rise to the level  of clear and convincing evidence that would establish a definite nexus to the airplane or crew.  Direct evidence must be produced to fully convince the court of public opinion that the TIGHAR theory is valid.  Direct evidence would be identifiable parts of the Electra or remains of the crew and would support the assertion without any inference.

If this case were in a court of law seeking a declaratory judgment to validate the TIGHAR theory, a very good argument could be constructed with the available circumstantial evidence, likewise, strong arguments could be made against that circumstantial evidence and a neutral and detached judge might rule in favor or not in favor of TIGHAR, however, to convince the general public and the press, the search must continue until direct or prima facia evidence is found that establishes beyond doubt that the Electra and crew came to earth on Gardner Island. That may or may not be possible.
« Last Edit: April 26, 2011, 06:55:57 PM by Bill Lloyd »
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Walter Runck

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Re: Was Fred Noonan injured in the Landing
« Reply #43 on: April 26, 2011, 09:12:18 PM »

Thanks again Ric.

It's hard to believe with all the available evidence that TIGHAR is still trying to prove their theory. With all the physical evidence collected from the island, the years of gathering statements from witnesses, the experiments to prove theories and all the other experiments that disprove some of TIGHAR's theories, why hasn't the mystery been deemed as solved?  Who will determine that it has been officially solved?  The Government?  Some global body?  Public opinion?  The media? ( please not them). TIGHAR itself?

I don't think you're going to get a court hearing on this and they always kick rational thinkers out of the jury pool anyway, so perhaps we could adopt the following standard to determine whether it has been solved:

         People stop thinking up other theories.  People stop spending time and money looking in other places.

The signal that it's over may not be a thunderclap, but rather a silence.

Until then, just enjoy being part of the chase!
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Irvine John Donald

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Re: Was Fred Noonan injured in the Landing
« Reply #44 on: April 26, 2011, 09:53:48 PM »

Thanks again Ric.
It's hard to believe with all the available ........  Who will determine that it has been officially solved?  The Government?  Some global body?  Public opinion?  The media? ( please not them). TIGHAR itself?
I don't think you're going to get a court hearing on this and they always kick rational thinkers out of the jury pool anyway, so perhaps we could adopt the following standard to determine whether it has been solved:
         People stop thinking up other theories.  People stop spending time and money looking in other places.

The signal that it's over may not be a thunderclap, but rather a silence.

Until then, just enjoy being part of the chase!

Walter....  What a great answer!
Respectfully Submitted;

Irv
 
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