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Author Topic: Similar circumstances?  (Read 9713 times)

Greg Daspit

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Re: Similar circumstances?
« Reply #15 on: August 23, 2021, 09:22:20 AM »

I was searching for scientific surveys of Seringapatam Reef to see if they mentioned seeing any wreckage of the Croydon. One article mentioned what could be another similar circumstance of a plane “landing” or “ditching” on a shallow water reef. This one at Cartier Island. The plane was a Beaufighter, a twin engine multi-role plane used in WWII.

The article mentioned a plane landing on an island.
https://parksaustralia.gov.au/marine/pub/scientific-publications/archive/cartier-plan.pdf

“During the Second World War a RAAF Beaufighter sustained damage
during a conflict and landed on Cartier Island. Following the rescue
of the crew, the wreck was strafed by other aircraft and set alight.
Some remains of the aircraft are still found on Cartier Island.”

This site mentions the plane “ditched” in shallow water with half the plane above water. At that depth this could be similar to a higher tide condition at Gardner
https://pacificwrecks.com/aircraft/beaufighter/A19-156.html

“At 1:30pm this Beaufighter ditched at 1:30pm at roughly Lat 12° 30' S Long 123° 33' E off Cartier Island with the upper half of the aircraft above the water line. Both crew survived the landing unhurt.”

This site has some interesting details
https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/wiki.php?id=265807

“A19-156 was hit by Japanese 20mm anti-aircraft gun in a raid on Semoa Island, losing starboard engine, and forced landed on Cartier Reef/Island”, “The crew set up the rear gun on a coconut stump for defense.”
After the crew was rescued by a Catalina the plane was destroyed by a covering Beaufighter

Wikipedia mentions “The remains of an RAAF Beaufighter can also be seen at low tide.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cartier_Island

It would be interesting to see what the remains are after having been strafed, set alight and its remains being on a shallow reef this long
3971R
 
« Last Edit: August 23, 2021, 09:56:00 AM by Greg Daspit »
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Christian Stock

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Re: Similar circumstances?
« Reply #16 on: August 23, 2021, 01:32:13 PM »

There was airplane wreckage AND a coconut stump on Cartier Island? I'm not sure how we will ever be able to tell the difference.
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Don White

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Re: Similar circumstances?
« Reply #17 on: August 24, 2021, 12:19:17 PM »

Well, that sent me down a rabbit hole of reading about Australian shipwrecks!

Thinking about the possibility they might have thought they could fly out of there led to speculation on how that could be accomplished and whether even in their wildest dreams they could think that was possible. After imagining this I don't see it as a practical possibility even if they had been found on the first day.

The airplane would have to be intact enough to fly, and have enough fuel to get to another landing place where more fuel was available. If they didn't have enough left, more would need to be brought to the airplane. They would need to know a destination to fly to and direction to fly to it.

If they had been found sooner, the finders could have told them their position and the nearest place to refuel. They do not need to have full tanks, only enough to get to a place where more fuel is available. And where would that be? There is plenty of fuel at Howland if they could get there. Was there anyplace closer? Getting fuel to the island, safely ashore and into the airplane would be the next challenges.

I've had the thought that perhaps they remembered that the Norwich City crew were rescued only four days after the shipwreck (their distress call having been heard and other ships sent to their rescue), and that a small boat was successfully used to bring them off. I do not mean that they (A and F) knew in advance where they were going (as has sometimes been speculated) but that maybe seeing the shipwreck brought it back to mind, though apparently not including the name of the island, as no known credible transcripts includes the island's name, but one includes what may be the ship's name. The wreck and rescue were international news at the time and were reported in American newspapers. This might raise their hopes.

This is of course entirely speculative and unsupported by any evidence. It is just a thought experiment to think of how the intact airplane could have been saved.

The question has been raised whether they didn't unload the airplane because it looked intact enough to fly out. Based on descriptions of walking on the reef, I imagined them trying to carry things ashore and it seems that difficulty might have been reason enough not to do so. Then when it did go, they would have only what they had on them or could grab on the way out.

And then where were they during those few days they were transmitting? Did they make a shore camp and go back and forth, or stay in the airplane the whole time? There's the same issue of walking back and forth on the reef flat, but there's also the heat inside the airplane and its precarious position.

Of course if you really want to speculate, imagine USS Lexington arriving in time for the Electra to be flown off the island and landed on her deck. But that really is fantasy.

LTM,
Don
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Greg Daspit

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Re: Similar circumstances?
« Reply #18 on: August 24, 2021, 01:04:38 PM »

From a similar circumstance perspective, the Croydon crew considered taking off from the reef but their broken tail wheel shot that idea down.
The only reason I can see AE or FN taking off is in a desperate attempt to get altitude. To be seen, see or get a better signal for a short time.
From the lighting study of the Bevington photo I did in Autocad, the oleo strut if still attached to the worm gear would have to be in the tire.  I can’t see the plane flying off with that happening.
In the Luke Field crash the oleo strut came off with the worm gear still attached to it.  (I have an interpretation that the Debris Field video may show the oleo strut is still in the tire. With a bit of hydraulic line attached to it similar to the Luke Field crash.)

The timing of the credible radio signals suggest they went to shore during the day.
If anything valuable was taken ashore and left there, or elsewhere, it could have been salvaged by villagers and taken with them when they left. Or possibly washed away in a storm,or deteriorated away over time.

Edit: I wonder if an analysis of radio signals, where just a man's voice was heard(if that occurred) might indicate if Fred stayed in the plane during the day?

What you take to shore seems purely survival based.  For the Beaufighter crew it was a machine gun.

3971R
 
« Last Edit: August 24, 2021, 01:52:20 PM by Greg Daspit »
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Don White

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Re: Similar circumstances?
« Reply #19 on: August 24, 2021, 05:17:58 PM »

I imagine the heartbreak for the Croydon crew -- which included its designer -- at having to abandon their only slightly damaged airplane to the elements.

What prompted discussion in this thread of the Electra taking off was a suggestion that Fred doing this alone could account for the loss of the airplane before the Colorado pilots' overflight, and Amelia surviving a while longer on the island.

We don't know when the landing gear was torn off the airplane -- on landing, when the plane was washed away, or in a takeoff attempt. Given the radio signals, I've thought it was probably when the plane was washed away.

The timing of signals doesn't tell us where they were when not transmitting. They transmitted when the water was low enough to allow them to run the engine with the prop clear of the water, for as long as they could before the engine got too hot (its cooling being inadequate while stationary). As the atmospheric phenomenon that allowed their signals to be heard at great distances varies by time of day, this also can account for the timing of reported signals by distant listeners. They might have transmitted whenever the tide allowed, but been unheard by anyone whose report has come to us. Admittedly, it was probably more comfortable at night, if they were ashore during the heat of the day (and the high water).

I keep thinking of descriptions of walking on the reef and imagine them doing that several times daily, in street shoes, and ask myself if they would have just stayed put for those first few days. Then again, they had little food or water, and seeking that might have driven them ashore.

LTM,
Don
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Don Yee

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Re: Similar circumstances?
« Reply #20 on: August 24, 2021, 07:54:51 PM »

Edit: I wonder if an analysis of radio signals, where just a man's voice was heard(if that occurred) might indicate if Fred stayed in the plane during the day?

Is there a daily time line of events somewhere, that includes the day and time of each radio transmission, what Amelia was thought to be saying, and the tides? I know about the tide charts with correlations to when the transmission took place, but it would be interesting to know e.g., at what point across time when Fred was heard talking or Amelia mentioning him. From the tide-transmission correlation one can speculate when the plane was taken by the waves, which gives a minimum number of days she at least was alive. Further, has anyone made an estimate for how long she may have survived based on the items found at the camp? If so, you could put these two pieces of information together and determine a time line for the major events (the transmissions, the plane being taken, how long we know Fred to have survived, and finally her survival). I would think you could put some confidence bars around all those times.
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Don White

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Re: Similar circumstances?
« Reply #21 on: August 25, 2021, 08:07:53 AM »

Yes there is a very complete chronology in TIGHAR's reference material. That was how it was possible to show that the credible transmissions all occurred when the tide was low and that the duration of transmission times matched with how long the engine could be run on the ground (about an hour) before it got too hot (not enough air flow when not flying) and had to be stopped to cool.

LTM
Don
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Greg Daspit

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Re: Similar circumstances?
« Reply #22 on: August 25, 2021, 01:18:29 PM »

Time and Tide analysis.
https://tighar.org/Publications/TTracks/2013Vol_29/February_2013/Time_And_Tide.pdf

Post loss Catalog has analysis.
https://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Research/ResearchPapers/Brandenburg/signalcatalog.html

These are the credible signals (Green Identifier) where a voice can be deduced to be a man or woman(“Earhart”). There are other credible signals that identify a voice but are not listed below because it was not clear who was talking.
The intent is to see if there is a window where one of the crew could have been ashore while the other was in the plane.

30555IA July 2 -6:55 PM-Woman’s voice
30800LE July 2 -9:00PM -Woman’s voice
31900PX July 3-8:00AM  - Woman’s Voice but it mentions a storm and “we” can’t stay here long
40650HD July 3 7:50PM Woman’s voice
41031PU July 3 -11:31 PM – Man’s voice
41200CC July 4 -1:00 AM  -Man’s voice
41215WD July 4-1:15 AM -Man’s voice
41500RH July 4 -4:00AM Woman’s voice (Randolph)
41500CB July 4 4:00AM -Conversation between man and woman(Crabb simultaneous to Randolph)
50638PY July 4 7:38 PM -Man’s voice
50908HD July 4 10:08 PM -Man’s voice
50916CS July 4 10:16-Woman’s voice
51200ME July 5, 1:00 AM-Woman’s voice
51417CV July 5 3:17 AM -Man’s Voice
51700CB July 5  6:00AM-Conversation between man and woman(Crabb)
52130KK July 5 10:30 AM -12:15PM Conversation between man and woman (Klenck)
61400CB July 6 3AM-Conversation between man and woman (Crabb)
71230LC July 7 1:30 AM-Woman’s Voice (Lovelace)

Based only on the signals in the catalog that provided information where you can identify that there is a man or a woman:
There is a possible large window where Earhart was heard and not Fred in the initial 13 hours or even 28 1/2 hours. July 2, 6:55pm to July 3, 8:00 am or even July 3, 11:31PM
There is a possible large window of 8 hours where Fred is heard and not Earhart. July 3 7:50PM to July 4, 4:00am
Then a mix of the two with oddly 3 instances of conversations being overheard between both of them near the end.
3971R
 
« Last Edit: August 26, 2021, 07:39:26 AM by Greg Daspit »
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Don Yee

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Re: Similar circumstances?
« Reply #23 on: August 26, 2021, 04:34:38 PM »

Thanks Greg. This was exactly what I was looking for.

So she lands on 2 July and the last received signal is 7 July (perhaps longer although those signals were of very low probability). A man is heard in many of these including 6 July. There is mention of a broken wing on 9 July however that one had a very low probability.
You could assume (I know about the dangers of this) that they stopped transmitting on the 7th because they could no longer get to the plane. I think then there is too little info to speculate if Fred was carried away with the plane. It is of course frustrating that the stronger signals with higher probabilities mostly don't contain text, just dashes.

5 days does not seem like enough time to succumb to starvation or dehydration although if injured it would certainly leave open that possibility.

Is there any way to determine how long the camp site was in use?
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Greg Daspit

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Re: Similar circumstances?
« Reply #24 on: August 26, 2021, 05:51:39 PM »



Is there any way to determine how long the camp site was in use?
Study of the bones and shells at the Seven site. This is one report:
https://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Expeditions/NikuV/Analysis_and_Reports/Faunals/NikuVanalysisfaunals2.html
I believe there is a more detailed one I remember seeing as well but I'm not sure where it is.
3971R
 
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Steve Lyle Gunderson

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Re: Similar circumstances?
« Reply #25 on: August 26, 2021, 10:04:34 PM »


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Re: Amelia's last days
« Reply #11 on: June 27, 2013, 09:41:03 PM »
ReplyQuote
What gets me is that so many psychics said that Amelia was northwest of Howland Island and Putnam put pressure on search operations to look there, and spent his own money looking there:

 http://earchives.lib.purdue.edu/cdm4/results.php?CISOOP1=any&CISOFIELD1=CISOSEARCHALL&CISOROOT=/earhart&CISOBOX1=psychic

SCIENCE said that AE was on land, otherwise she couldn't have been sending radio signals, so if GPP had put more effort into searching the Phoenix Islands instead, there could have been a different outcome. I was surprised to read how much time, effort, and faith GPP and AE put in psychics. I believe psychics can have their uses (I can hear you, Jeff Neville!), but to put all your eggs in their baskets is a mistake, IMHO.

So sad.

Matt John Barth, I do find it interesting that Edgar Cayce said that AE died July 21, 1937. Makes you wonder, huh.


Looks like Edgar Cayce thought she lasted until July 21.
 
SteveG
3911R

Steve G
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Don Yee

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Re: Similar circumstances?
« Reply #26 on: August 27, 2021, 10:15:56 AM »

What gets me is that so many psychics said that Amelia was northwest of Howland Island and Putnam put pressure on search operations to look there, and spent his own money looking there...

I'm reminded of an old joke.
Why do they need to announce meeting for psychics? Shouldn't they all just show up anyway?
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Greg Daspit

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Re: Similar circumstances?
« Reply #27 on: August 27, 2021, 11:01:55 AM »

My cousin had a son who went missing in a freak storm in the Gulf. The Seacor Power accident.
They used science to search for him based on currents. Frustratingly a Psychic got involved too.
Eventually his hard hat was found washed up far away from where they were searching.
Recently there appeared to be evidence of heavy steel Norwich City wreckage washed up on the North end of Nikumaroro. Opposite of prevailing currents.
I think a storm did that.  A storm could also be why the plane may not be where you think it should based on prevailing currents.
3971R
 
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Randy Jacobson

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Re: Similar circumstances?
« Reply #28 on: August 28, 2021, 07:50:50 AM »

My cousin had a son who went missing in a freak storm in the Gulf. The Seacor Power accident.
They used science to search for him based on currents. Frustratingly a Psychic got involved too.
Eventually his hard hat was found washed up far away from where they were searching.
Recently there appeared to be evidence of heavy steel Norwich City wreckage washed up on the North end of Nikumaroro. Opposite of prevailing currents.
I think a storm did that.  A storm could also be why the plane may not be where you think it should based on prevailing currents.
Except there is no evidence (from ship logs of swell, sea states) of any storm near Niku from July 2 to the 9th when the Colorado pilots overflew the island and saw no intact plane.  If the plane broke up on the reef flat, it was due to normal and everyday wave/tidal action.
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Greg Daspit

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Re: Similar circumstances?
« Reply #29 on: August 28, 2021, 09:55:39 AM »


Except there is no evidence (from ship logs of swell, sea states) of any storm near Niku from July 2 to the 9th when the Colorado pilots overflew the island and saw no intact plane.  If the plane broke up on the reef flat, it was due to normal and everyday wave/tidal action.
One of the radio messages heard mentioned it was getting dark when it should have been daytime there. The only people that could say if there was a squall before the Colorado got there should have been AE and FN.

Regardless of the what the weather may have been then I wasn't suggesting a storm moved the plane off of the reef or spur and groove zone before or during the Navy search. That search occurred when the tide and breaking surf was high enough to hide the plane.  I am convinced The Bevington object is the landing gear and I believe Emily saw part of the plane at low tide later.  To be more clear on what I meant I am saying that a large section of the plane may have been moved by a storm from the shallow part of the spur and groove it had been in sometime in the months or years after the landing. That the main section may not have gone down the western slope. But that a storm could have moved a large section north like what appears to have happened to some of the Norwich City steel. I think some of the plane did go down the slope, some of it in the lagoon. Based on seeing what appears to be Norwich City steel on the north tip, some of the much lighter plane could have been moved even farther north. This possible storm occurring sometime in 40's or even later.

3971R
 
« Last Edit: August 28, 2021, 10:01:34 AM by Greg Daspit »
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