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Author Topic: New Book  (Read 8441 times)

Ric Gillespie

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Re: New Book
« Reply #15 on: July 28, 2020, 08:20:26 AM »

We could debate the probability that 391065 would randomly happen to give the minutes and seconds to within 1,500 feet of the Bevington Object.
But only if you insert numbers and words that aren't there in specific locations in the string of numbers.

If Noonan can get the latitude, he should be able to get the longitude.  Why didn't AE say the longitude? Or is that somehow represented by the rest of the cryptic  letters and numbers on the page?

At some later date (Betty couldn't remember exactly when) she made some marginal notations in her notebook. Near the string of numbers on Page 53 she wrote "{S 309'  165° E}" with a question mark.

USS Ontario's assigned plane guard position as expressed in pre-flight messages was" LATITUDE 03 05 SOUTH LONGITUDE 165 00 EAST."  The numbers 5 and 9 are so often misheard in radio communications that operators are cautioned to say "niner."

Coincidence? Or was Earhart looking through Noonan's notes and, in desperation, transmitting anything she came across?
My point is, if you make enough assumptions and excuses, you can find great significance in any piece of evidence.  It's called confirmation bias.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2020, 08:22:33 AM by Ric Gillespie »
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Joe Cerniglia

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Re: New Book
« Reply #16 on: August 02, 2020, 03:39:16 PM »

But only if you insert numbers and words that aren't there in specific locations in the string of numbers.

Let’s back up a bit. Betty wrote “South 391065.” To expect rigidly the words ‘degrees,’ ‘minutes’, and ‘seconds’ at specific locations in this text does not seem reasonable to me from the standpoint of celestial navigation. Since time out of mind, a large proportion of ship’s navigational logs have had column headers for degrees, minutes and seconds notated at the top of the page simply as º, ‘ and “.  The headers obviate the need for writing the units into the individual log entries and consequently many navigators do not bother with them. Alternatively, there are many acceptable ways to note an observed position that do not include these words or these symbols (º ‘ “) at all. I have attached an historical survey of ship’s log entries to illustrate my argument.

A person reading from the log will read these log entries without the units, for the simple reason that the units are not present in the individual entries.

My point is, if you make enough assumptions and excuses, you can find great significance in any piece of evidence.  It's called confirmation bias.

You cite the similarity between USS Ontario’s position and Betty’s marginalia in Finding Amelia as possibly more than coincidental. You allowed yourself a single excuse, changing a 9 to a 5, to posit this, yet inexplicably disallow anyone else from doing the same. Your Ontario interpretation sounds reasonable to me, and is in my opinion no more biased than what Wealleans did with “South 391065.”

For Betty’s “South 391065,” there are no numbers or words that must be assumed or excused to make sense to a navigator as a latitude, save for one numeral: 4. The only transliteration that must be made is of this one numeral.


Joe Cerniglia
TIGHAR #3078ECR

"Earhart's messages lacked any useful position information and consisted of generalities." - from Warner Thompson's July 1937 report ‘Radio Transcripts Earhart Flight’ page 47, ‘Flight Summary’.

Addendum: I have recently learned that navigators shy away from the term “fix.” Since all locational information derived from the science of celestial navigation is by definition imprecise, navigators instead prefer the term ‘observed position.’
« Last Edit: August 02, 2020, 03:51:28 PM by Joe Cerniglia »
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: New Book
« Reply #17 on: August 03, 2020, 08:21:57 AM »

You allowed yourself a single excuse, changing a 9 to a 5, to posit this, yet inexplicably disallow anyone else from doing the same.

There is more to it than that. We're taking about two different interpretations of the same string of numbers and letters.  Both can be wrong but both cannot be correct.  The question is, which interpretation is more likely to be correct.
Both interpretations postulate that the numbers were intended to communicate Earhart's position.
As you say, both interpretations postulate that the numbers were imperfectly heard.
You and Wealleans interpret the numbers to represent latitude, but latitude alone does not provide position.
I agree with Betty's interpretation that the numbers represent latitude and longitude.
Both interpretations postulate that the numbers were followed by a word that Betty did not understand but thought sounded like either "zee" or "eee".
You and Wealleans interpret the word to be "degrees" (deGREEZ) but the the "zee" sound does not occur in the word "degrees."
I agree with Betty's interpretation that the word was "E."
Neither interpretation results in an accurate position.

Again, both interpretations might be wrong but, for the reasons stated above, I believe mine is more likely to be correct.  You're free to disagree.
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