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Author Topic: New Post-Loss Radio Analysis  (Read 21103 times)

Ric Gillespie

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New Post-Loss Radio Analysis
« on: July 23, 2018, 11:26:29 AM »

As was reported in yesterday's TIGHARNews and on the TIGHAR Facebook page:
Tomorrow, Amelia Earhart's 121st birthday, TIGHAR will release a new in-depth analysis of the radio distress calls heard during the five days and nights following Earhart's disappearance.
    Fifteen year-old Betty Klenck's transcription of the desperate pleas for help she heard on her family radio in July 1937 has been featured in books, articles, and television documentaries as a remarkable record of perhaps the last communication from Amelia Earhart and Fred Noonan.
   Betty's Notebook describes a scene so clearly authentic and so emotionally powerful that her experience tends to overshadow the other 56 credible signals heard in the days following the Electra's failure to arrive at Howland Island. Those receptions constitute a body of evidence far stronger than Betty's alone.
    Similar to the castaway bone measurements analyzed by forensic anthropologist Richard Jantz, the post-loss radio signals constitute historically documented quantitative data that can be scientifically analyzed. The new analysis, four months in preparation by TIGHAR Senior Researcher Bob Brandenburg and Executive Director Ric Gillespie, presents the signals in a graphical and narrative format that makes their significance easier to understand. Newly identified patterns and relationships in the data provide new insights into the situation faced by the lost aviators. The paper is being published in a dedicated special issue of TIGHAR Tracks on July 24, and will also be posted on the TIGHAR website.

I'll be eager to know what all of you think of the new report.
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Ted G Campbell

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Re: New Post-Loss Radio Analysis
« Reply #1 on: July 23, 2018, 10:07:01 PM »

Ric,

We are looking forward to your report.

Is Betty’s Notebook and Richard Jantz’s documents “originals” being held in AE’s “museum”? Hmmm!

Ted Campbell
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Pat Fontaine

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Re: New Post-Loss Radio Analysis
« Reply #2 on: July 24, 2018, 06:43:58 AM »

Just finished reading the report - makes perfect sense to me.  I found it well organized and presented an easy-to-read chronology of the transmissions correlated to the conditions on the island.
Between this and the bones analysis, the evidence strongly supports them meeting their end on Gardner.
Thanks to all who worked putting this together.
Pat
TIGHAR #5095P
 
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: New Post-Loss Radio Analysis
« Reply #3 on: July 24, 2018, 08:03:01 AM »

Is Betty’s Notebook and Richard Jantz’s documents “originals” being held in AE’s “museum”? Hmmm!

SAY WHAT????  Where did you hear that?
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Ric Gillespie

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Matt Revington

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Re: New Post-Loss Radio Analysis
« Reply #5 on: July 24, 2018, 01:47:43 PM »

A very good presentation of the data, there is so much that I will still have to go through it a couple of more times. 
I do have one question, on page 28 in the discussion about why AE never mentioned the name of the island it is suggested that FN may have used the H.O. 5050 chart which ended just below the equator and did not include the Phoenix Islands so they would  not have  had access to  the island names.  If the islands were not on their charts then I am not sure if I get  how they would have known that Gardner lay to the south on the 357-157 line.
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Alfred Hendrickson

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Re: New Post-Loss Radio Analysis
« Reply #6 on: July 24, 2018, 01:54:25 PM »

Very nicely assembled report. A fascinating read. Thank you.

Alfred
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: New Post-Loss Radio Analysis
« Reply #7 on: July 24, 2018, 02:01:09 PM »

If the islands were not on their charts then I am not sure if I get  how they would have known that Gardner lay to the south on the 357-157 line.

I don't think they did.  I once thought that Noonan saw the Phoenix Group as an alternate if they couldn't find Howland, but when you think about it, it doesn't make sense.  Noonan can't head south to find Gardner unless he knows he's south of Howland.  If he knows he's south of Howland he should fly north.

I don't think Noonan was ever doing anything but trying to find Howland by "running on line north and south" just like AE said.  Later that night, when they're on the ground, he can get their lat/long and know they're "on a reef southeast of Howland."
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Greg Daspit

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Re: New Post-Loss Radio Analysis
« Reply #8 on: July 24, 2018, 04:27:46 PM »

Congratulations on organizing all of this data in a report that explains what happened so clearly.
Listing the signals by active periods makes it easy to see why categorizing some of the receptions as Credible Beyond Reasonable Doubt is justified. 
For example,  as noted during Period 9, multiple stations heard dashes after the KGMB broadcast asking her to send dashes, and then Pan Am gets a bearing on the signals that is close to Gardner.  And as noted during Period 11, DF bearings from 3 different locations were taken and they all cross near Gardner. This report makes those sequences and correlations easy to see now.

The graphics are better than ever. Especially the chart on Page 16 and 17.
 Notice that on the first night there are signals before the tide peak but not after until it gets light. The next two nights there are signals before and after the peak, even during darkness after the peak. One theory for this could be that on the first night they could see the water rising (higher than earlier in the day) but don't know yet when it will stop. They may risk going to shore the first night because they think the plane may soon be washed away.   On the 2nd and 3rd night they may stay in the plane until morning because they learned it didn’t rise high enough the first night and discovered the risks of crossing the reef in darkness the 1st night.
3971R
 
« Last Edit: July 24, 2018, 04:55:02 PM by Greg Daspit »
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Ted G Campbell

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Re: New Post-Loss Radio Analysis
« Reply #9 on: July 24, 2018, 09:21:39 PM »

Is Betty’s Notebook and Richard Jantz’s documents “originals” being held in AE’s “museum”? Hmmm!

SAY WHAT????  Where did you hear that?
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Ted G Campbell

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Re: New Post-Loss Radio Analysis
« Reply #10 on: July 24, 2018, 09:25:56 PM »

Ric,

Ref. your reply #4.  My post was a QUESTION!

Ted Campbell

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Ric Gillespie

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Re: New Post-Loss Radio Analysis
« Reply #11 on: July 25, 2018, 06:35:03 AM »

Ref. your reply #4.  My post was a QUESTION!

Sorry, I thought you were trying to confirm something you heard.  The answer to your question is No. 
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Ric Gillespie

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Ric Gillespie

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Re: New Post-Loss Radio Analysis
« Reply #13 on: July 25, 2018, 09:32:07 AM »

My contact at the Washington Post reports that the radio signals article is one of today's most-read stories.

USA TODAY reports that yesterday's article reached half a million people with an excellent average read time of two minutes.

United Press International (UPI) wire service has also picked up the story https://www.upi.com/Study-Radio-signals-may-prove-Amelia-Earhart-crashed-on-Pacific-island/1351532450804/
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Randy Jacobson

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Re: New Post-Loss Radio Analysis
« Reply #14 on: July 25, 2018, 06:45:21 PM »

A long time ago (circa 1998), I did some analysis of the KGMB/KGU broadcasts, but that write-up was lost during multiple computer change-overs.  Most of it was based upon the reported responses on the HO chart used by the Navy in Honolulu, along with newspaper reports and some of the telegrams.  I'm going strictly by memory here, so I may be off.  The idea was to respond first with 4 dashes if on land and 2 if on sea, then another request made for 4 dashes if south of the Equator and 2 if North.  I believe the first response was 4, and the second response was three (the signal diminished after the third dash).  Long before the radio signal level analyses, I thought that this sequence of events was one of the more credible radio receptions picked up by the Navy/Coast Guard. 

Ric: can you look at your copy of the map and verify if my memory is at least somewhat intact?  My copy of the map is buried in the closet...
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