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Author Topic: Questions about search strategy for next expedition  (Read 10948 times)

Jon Romig

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Questions about search strategy for next expedition
« on: February 15, 2016, 12:17:55 PM »


But I become increasingly convinced that the only thing that will meet the any-idiot standard is conclusively identifiable Lockheed 10 wreckage discovered in situ.  If it still exists its somewhere on the reef slope and the only way to find it is with manned submersibles.

A few questions and thoughts that you may not answer, Ric, as my membership is unpaid due to my being out of work (this may turn into involuntary early retirement). But others may:

Why only manned submersibles? Are ROVs now deemed incapable and/or too undependable?

Quantifying the search
A proper search plan or map should show the overall search area, and sub-areas of higher and lower probability.
Does TIGHAR have such a plan of the reef slope?
How big is the probable area?
What percentage of the probable area has been properly searched to date (if any)?
How much area can reasonably be searched with a manned submersible in one day?
How long then can we expect a full search to take?

I know the comparison is weak, but other underwater searches in the news (like flight 370's) routinely report on how much of the likely (or "search") area has been covered. I am concerned that TIGHAR's underwater searches to date have been somewhat scattershot (with legitimate reason - no criticism implied) and patience and resources are limited. I think supporters need to know how big this job is.

Cheers,
Jon
Jon Romig 3562R
 
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: Questions about search strategy for next expedition
« Reply #1 on: February 15, 2016, 08:05:27 PM »

Quantifying the search
A proper search plan or map should show the overall search area, and sub-areas of higher and lower probability.
Does TIGHAR have such a plan of the reef slope?
How big is the probable area?
What percentage of the probable area has been properly searched to date (if any)?


I'm pretty sure that no one has produced more maps of Niku than TIGHAR.


Lots of maps of what has and has not been searched.


Maps of planned search areas prior to each expedition, on land and water.


Maps of what got done on each expedition.


Perhaps you could find some answers for yourself by searching the TIGHAR website.

LTM,

           Marty
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Monty Fowler

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Re: Questions about search strategy for next expedition
« Reply #2 on: February 16, 2016, 07:00:57 PM »

I'm pretty sure that no one has produced more maps of Niku than TIGHAR.

Lots of maps of what has and has not been searched.

Maps of planned search areas prior to each expedition, on land and water.

Maps of what got done on each expedition.

Perhaps you could find some answers for yourself by searching the TIGHAR website.

But one thing TIGHAR has not produced, to my knowledge, is a master search map, a single document that shows what areas have been covered by foot, scuba, sonar, etc. So there is no big, easily understood and quickly digested picture.

Such a task would be an excellent component of a comprehensive research plan for both current research activities and the pending Niku IX expedition, and one ideally suited for the administrative component of TIGHAR, since it has the most ready access to the most materials in the greatest variety of formats.

Or so it seems to me.

LTM,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 EC
Ex-TIGHAR member No. 2189 E C R SP, 1998-2016
 
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: Questions about search strategy for next expedition
« Reply #3 on: February 16, 2016, 07:18:55 PM »

But one thing TIGHAR has not produced, to my knowledge, is a master search map, a single document that shows what areas have been covered by foot, scuba, sonar, etc. So there is no big, easily understood and quickly digested picture.

Ah.

Quote
Such a task would be an excellent component of a comprehensive research plan for both current research activities and the pending Niku IX expedition, and one ideally suited for the administrative component of TIGHAR, since it has the most ready access to the most materials in the greatest variety of formats.

Yes, of course Ric and Pat are "ideally suited" to make a map like that.

I don't think it would be hugely helpful, over above the maps they have already produced.

Anyone who wishes could go through the publicly-available history of expeditions on the website and build a map using Google Earth.  Some samples here for starters.

I did this overlay for the article on the village.  It was a lot of fun.




I was also very pleased with this overlay of the runway plans on the Google Earth image of Howland:





LTM,

           Marty
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Greg Daspit

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Re: Questions about search strategy for next expedition
« Reply #4 on: February 16, 2016, 07:32:41 PM »

The area below the scuba searched part of the reef but that was not able to be scanned by sonar is an area that I would like to see more data on.  I wonder if it could be mapped by the subs or with a small skiff mounted sonar unit by other researchers or visitors before then. Edit. Specifically contours mapped to see if low spots may be directing debris to collecting areas.
3971R
 
« Last Edit: February 16, 2016, 08:07:59 PM by Greg Daspit »
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Questions about search strategy for next expedition
« Reply #5 on: February 17, 2016, 08:40:49 AM »

I wonder if it could be mapped by the subs

Yes, the subs should be able to inspect that area.
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Questions about search strategy for next expedition
« Reply #6 on: February 17, 2016, 08:46:27 AM »

Yes, of course Ric and Pat are "ideally suited" to make a map like that.

I don't think it would be hugely helpful, over above the maps they have already produced.

Such a map would have to be gigantic and complex. It would probably be hugely helpful to anyone wanting to second-guess where we should focus our efforts. 
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Monty Fowler

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Re: Questions about search strategy for next expedition
« Reply #7 on: February 17, 2016, 02:43:44 PM »

Other sets of eyes can be hugely helpful. It keeps us from getting tunnel vision, and might suggest completely new and unconsidered avenues of research.

LTM,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 EC
Ex-TIGHAR member No. 2189 E C R SP, 1998-2016
 
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Questions about search strategy for next expedition
« Reply #8 on: February 17, 2016, 03:32:03 PM »

Other sets of eyes can be hugely helpful. It keeps us from getting tunnel vision, and might suggest completely new and unconsidered avenues of research.

No doubt about it but we have conducted no secret searches.  Everything we've done has been written up in TIGHAR Tracks and website Research Bulletins.  Is there some part of the island that you wonder if we've searched.  Or is there some part that we haven't searched and you think we should?   
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Bill Mangus

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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Questions about search strategy for next expedition
« Reply #10 on: February 20, 2016, 07:02:51 AM »

Fiji is a thousand miles from Niku.  Whether cyclones that hit Fiji have any impact on Niku depends on where they go afterward.
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