"We're on Gardner Island. Gardner, Gardner, Gardner!"

[Scott C. Mitchell]

A couple of thoughts on whether AE and FN knew where they were:

Gardner did have one unique feature:  the Norwich City shipwreck.  A couple of years ago I found a book at a library sale, copywrited 1940, as I recall, with a title like "Islands of the South Pacific". [Aside:  my father fought on some of those islands in the 6th Marine Division, which was my original impetus to pick up the book.]  I turned  the pages to the Howland Islands, and there was Gardner, with a notation "Shipwreck" and an arrow pointing to the beach.  [I later fowarded that book on to TIGHAR HQ, where I'm sure they need more stuff to archive.]  So here's the point:  If the wreck of the Norwich City was such common knowledge as to appear in a popular-reader book, it would not be surprising if it would have been common scuttlebutt among Pacific navigators and mariners, including Fred.  Speculation, of course -- but we do know the one unique characteristic about the island that AE was broadcasting was "New York , New York" -- aka "Norwich City."  If FN recognized the name from what he may have heard in countless airstrips and dockyards, that would be the priority message to send regarding their location.  The other thought was, that may have been the limit of FN's contribution, if he had a head injury or was otherwise disabled.  His comments in the Betty notebook transcript sound disoriented, helpless, almost raving at times.  So real navigation may have been beyond him, even if his instruments were intact.  Hence, no steady stream of precise longitude & lattitude figures to offer over the radio, just the random scraps of whatever data was at hand, primarily the ship, and maybe some half-remembered navigational aids (like, 280 miles from Howland)

Scott
#3292

[Ted G Campbell]

All,

To add to Scott C. Mitchell's points in his post no. 46 is the following quote from Ric's post no. 1 under "Can't help but wonder";

"That's the Pitcairn PCA-2 Autogyro AE flew across the country in May/June 1931.  Six years later, on July 4, 1937, 16 year-old Rock Springs resident Dana Randolph picked up her distress call on his home shortwave set.  "This is Amelia Earhart.  Ship on reef southeast of Howland."  Dana reportedly hollered to his father in the kitchen, "Hey Paw!  I got Miss Earhart!" The Randolph family were African American."

I wonder if Dana and/or his father went to the airfield to see Amelia when she came through in 1931.  The guy on the extreme left in the photo could be African American."

It seems that AE did not know the name of the island.  However, if Dana Randolph's recorded transmission is accurate AE describes her location rather accurately – "ship on reef southeast of Howland", the "281 message" (north to Howland), "figure 8 island", etc.

These "location hearings" all give weight to the TIGHAR hypothesis of Niku being the place of landing.

Ted Campbell

[John Klier]

What I find most unreal. Is that no answering wave was seen on the search flyover.

Unless they went down with the plane. But where did the bones and box come from then.

Here's link to a post I made a few years ago. I think this could be a possible explanation as to how they might not have been seen if they were indeed on the island when the searchers flew over.

http://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,253.msg18644.html#msg18644

[Chris Murphy]

I know that this has probably been answered elsewhere (although I couldn't find it), but I have often wondered whether or not the loss of the starboard rear navigation window (patched during the week in Miami) might have played any role -- ever so slight -- in Earhart's and Noonan's ultimate failure to reach Howland Island.  Whether it would have assisted in navigation or simply provided a better, unobstructed view of what was below, I just wonder if the window had not been patched would they have more readily found Howland.

[Ric Gillespie]

I have often wondered whether or not the loss of the starboard rear navigation window (patched during the week in Miami) might have played any role -- ever so slight -- in Earhart's and Noonan's ultimate failure to reach Howland Island.

If we're right about the aircraft never coming within sight of Howland it's hard to imagine how the lack of another window would make any difference.

[Jerry Germann]

From Last Flight;
(Emphasis mine)

"...When you plan an automobile journey through New England, or, say, to Yellowstone, the needed maps can be had at any filling station.  But with a flight around the world, much of it off the beaten paths of established air transport, there are complexities.  It took many weeks to get all the maps and charts we wanted.  Once secured, the courses to be followed were laid out in detail on them, mostly by Commander Clarence Williams of Los Angeles, who had helped me plot previous flights.

In final form flight charts are really lovely things.  On them are drawn the compass courses with their periodic changes, distances, airports and the like.  As supplementary data accumulates the marginal notes assume encyclopedic proportions.  They concern details about airports, service facilities, prevailing winds, characteristics of local weather and terrain, critical altitudes, emergency landing possibilities and the like....{ end quote}

The line in green, if true and written by Earhart I believe is telling; It suggests to me that a lot of study went into the effort, not merely a skimming over. The purpose of the gained knowledge seems spelled out for us in the next line in bold.....yes, the necessary things, but note, the unexpected is also included...Emergency landing possibilities....
Clarence Williams, is credited in helping develop the planned route along with Amelia;
http://earchives.lib.purdue.edu/cdm/singleitem/collection/earhart/id/223/rec/561
I wonder the brainstorming that must have taken place during the discussions, when it came to trying to handle what many people would agree was the most difficult leg (Howland) .... one may reason that there was a 'what if plan' ,..... what if we can't find it?...someone mentioned she thought the Gilberts would be that plan, ...what else? Why not the phoenix group? Did she know about them? Looking at several images of Amelia with maps seem to show her intended route , and if my eyes don't decieve me, the Phoenix group seems to be included in most of them.( See attachments).
Fred ,....Fred, is holding a map alongside Amelia, does that map show the Phoenix group....unclear to me, but it seems too. Timezone maps of the era, http://cartotecadigital.icc.cat/cdm/ref/collection/monregions/id/394 indicate the Phoenix group as well.
I agree , if the pair landed on Gardner, they may well not have known what island they were on,... but , if Fred and Amelia both did their homework, I don't know how they wouldn't know about the Phoenix group to the South?

[Randy Conrad]

Jerry...Interesting read! Thanks!!!! As I was reading your post, I wandered this possible scenario as to find Gardner Island. In most cases if we get lost or have gone too far we either have to turn around or make a complete circle back to where we started. The map illustration with Amelia glancing at it helps out alot to define this scenario. So basically, once she crossed that starred point in red, she had to circle back to find Howland. If you think about it...I don't believe they thought for one minute that it was Gardner Island, but Howland Island! Anyway, just a thought!

[Neff Jacobs]

Randy,
Circling back to your destination can take two widely recognized forms.
1.  Get a fix due to now being out from under overcast or figuring out the DF  and make a U turn back to your destination.

2.  Run an expanding search, fly an expanding square with the first leg equal to visibility, say 20 miles.  Turn right or left, most illustrations show a left turn, and fly 20 miles.  Turn left again and this time fly 40 miles expanding your square.

IF the navigator hasn't had a fix for several hours but is able to get a sun line, then he would be much more lost north and south along the line than east and west of the line.   An accepted rule of thumb says you get 10% more lost for each hour you fly without a fix.  In this case it can be argued that searching up and down the advance LOP is the most efficient search.   Remember unless you get additional sun sights you get lost on the LOP too since you are not flying the LOP but a DR magnetic course that takes you up or down the LOP.  The only way to stay on a LOP without DR drift is by the single body approach method
Neff

[Ric Gillespie]

I don't understand the point of this discussion. 

[Jerry Germann]

I can't speak for others,.....but the area of interest for myself is whether or not Earhart was educated about any surrounding Emergency landing areas in the event Howland was missed, per her quote from the last flight...
In final form flight charts are really lovely things.  On them are drawn the compass courses with their periodic changes, distances, airports and the like.  As supplementary data accumulates the marginal notes assume encyclopedic proportions.  They concern details about airports, service facilities, prevailing winds, characteristics of local weather and terrain, critical altitudes, emergency landing possibilities and the like.
I realize the last flight book,and any statements, quotes within it,may have been embellished upon a bit,by George P....so some may have to be taken with a grain of salt....However; it seems that she surrounded herself with those who knew the who, what and where's ( Williams, Noonan,Mantz,) to mention some, in fact in her employ for that purpose. If Earhart didn't know of the existence of the Phoenix chain, maybe a share of the blame lies with them, and that is why the word Phoenix or Gardner is never heard in any radio transmission.....but consider,....even if Earhart was dis-interested in their existence, even up until her last in air transmission, and later, they did indeed spot Gardner,....Now, I will try not to say Wouldn't....But, Before Fred possibly became incapacitated upon landing may he have enlightened her, to the term Phoenix, if he didn't know which island they saw?  What was Fred's reason for being along , if not to know these things?

[Ric Gillespie]

But, Before Fred possibly became incapacitated upon landing may he have enlightened her, to the term Phoenix, if he didn't know which island they saw?

If he did, why does neither the word "Gardner" or "Phoenix" occur in any of the post-loss messages?

  What was Fred's reason for being along , if not to know these things?

Fred's reason for being along was to provide navigational guidance for the flight through pilotage, dead reckoning, and celestial observations. 

[Jerry Germann]

If he did, why does neither the word "Gardner" or "Phoenix" occur in any of the post-loss messages?

Therein , lies one of the problems concerning the credibility of the post loss messages. Please rationalize;....How does one go off into the night, searching for a sliver of land that means your life, without exploring all of options available to save that life (yours), in the event you miss your target?

[Bill Mangus]

Remember, just because they weren't heard (or recorded) doesn't mean they weren't 'said'.

[Ric Gillespie]

Therein , lies one of the problems concerning the credibility of the post loss messages. Please rationalize;....How does one go off into the night, searching for a sliver of land that means your life, without exploring all of options available to save that life (yours), in the event you miss your target?

Although you didn't express it in those words, you are employing the "would have" fallacy.  Earhart (or Noonan) could not have (fill in the blank) because he/she would have (fill in the blank).  "Would have" is a guess masquerading as a fact.
How does one go off into the night, searching for a sliver of land that means your life, without knowing how to use or verifying the reliability of the one piece of equipment that is essential for finding that sliver of land?  How does one set off to fly around the world in 1937 without knowing Morse code? Neither is rational and yet we know she did both.  For that matter, she might also have blown off Kelly Johnson's recommendations and run out of gas an hour after only 20.2 hours of flight - except we know that she didn't do that because we know that she reached land somewhere, landed, and sent radio distress calls for nearly a week.

If you want to question the credibility of the post-loss signals come up with credible alternative explanations for them.

[Ric Gillespie]

Remember, just because they weren't heard (or recorded) doesn't mean they weren't 'said'.

That's true, but if she knew the name of the island or the group of islands why did she try to give her location by describing her surroundings rather than just saying the name.  "Ship on reef southeast of Howland"; "281 north"; "NY NY":  "near little island"; etc.?