Hail Mary Analysis

[George Lam]

Probably a good time to start a new thread.

[Daniel Paul Cotts]

Quote from: Craig A Shortreed on Today at 11:18:31 AM
With my background in diving, perhaps I should create an ROV for the project and get on board for the exposure ;).

Craig, Go for it!  Walt Holm made a significant contribution with the kit built ROV he brought to Niku VIII. The kit version is $900 plus the laptop used to control it. Its limitations preclude that particular model from deep work but the lesson learned is the technologies and parts exist to create a custom ROV. There seems to be a community of folks designing and building their own ROVs. Is that route cost effective? The good news is you could thoroughly test it (and its backup twin) before the next expedition.
OpenROV YouTube

[Joe Cerniglia]

Here's a 50-yard Hail Mary that will win no Heisman but someone had to try it.  Attached is a diagram of a part of the fuel system for the Model 10 Electra.  Photo #345 from the undersea imagery looks a bit like the curving u-shape of outboard or inboard tank vents from a (crushed?) 81-gallon fuel tank, situated in the wing area.  The zoom version of the diagram has the area of interest highlighted with a blue square.

Source: Lockheed 10 1948 Maintenance Manual, p. 135.

Second choice would be a tuning fork for the banjo.  Either way, image 345 is weird and doesn't exactly belong there.  It is at least distinctive enough to invite speculation with a known aircraft part from the production version of the aircraft of interest.  It'd be nice to retrieve it someday for a better look. 

I've reviewed all the photos and that's the only thing interesting I see right now.



Joe Cerniglia
TIGHAR #3078ECR

[Bob Smith]

Looks good, Joe! the vent tube may also be shown in the photo of Amelia in front of the tanks and fuel system of 16020. I can't find it at present.

[Ric Gillespie]

Either way, image 345 is weird and doesn't exactly belong there.  It is at least distinctive enough to invite speculation with a known aircraft part from the aircraft of interest.

I would urge you to decline that invitation.  We are not going to engage in Mellonistic fantasies no matter how carefully couched with caveats.

[Joe Cerniglia]

The purpose of expedition data is to analyze it.  I gave my best analysis using the best source material from Lockheed I thought prudent to do that, with the available data. If the analysis lacks quantifiable data from which independently verifiable conclusions can be drawn, then one simply has to accept the quality of the data is lacking.  The quality of the analyst is not.  I will do what I am able to help with ensuring the quality of the data brought back next time is better.  That is all I can do.  Meanwhile, your advice to decline any further such invitation is accepted, with what I am sure is the shared wish that more could be done.

I would politely point out, however, that this is a time to hang together..., as Ben Franklin put it.

Joe Cerniglia
TIGHAR #3078 ECR

[Ric Gillespie]

With all the losses in funding, between the lawsuit and the less-than-fruitful missions, how has this all impacted TIGHAR's other non AE projects?

Only in the sense that dealing with the lawsuit and the technical challenges of underwater searches has left little time for other projects.  The Devastator Project has been essentially in a holding pattern for the past fews years due to procedural and diplomatic complications and delays involving the U.S. Navy, Texas A&M University, and the Republic of the Marshall Islands.  If recovering a TBD-1 from Jaluit lagoon was just an engineering problem we would have had the airplane out of there long ago.  The Maid of Harlech has not been recovered primarily because nobody wants it.
TIGHAR's oldest project, the search for l'Oiseau Blanc (the White Bird) of Charles Nungesser and Francois Coli, has been dormant for several years but is about to reawaken.  Watch for the next issue of TIGHAR Tracks.

For sure, the last three years have been difficult.  How do you turn down the offer of an endorsement by the Secretaries of State and Transportation at a major event at the U.S. State Department, even if it means you will have to put together a complex, expensive underwater search on short notice a full year before you planned to do it?  How do you turn down an unsolicited million dollar contribution even if it is offered by someone who has had no previous contact with the organization?  In retrospect, we should have turned down both. Hard lessons learned.

[ibscas]

With all the losses in funding, between the lawsuit and the less-than-fruitful missions, how has this all impacted TIGHAR's other non AE projects?

l'Oiseau Blanc (the White Bird) of Charles Nungesser and Francois Coli, has been dormant for several years but is about to reawaken.  Watch for the next issue of TIGHAR Tracks.

Ooooh, very excited to see the news!

[Steve Treadwell]

Hi all - new member here - this is my second post (first was in introduction section)

Talking about DIY ROV's, have you seen this one:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7jC55WLdDbs

It has video, forward looking and side scan sonar, depth capable to 3000 feet, DIY cost of $5000.  He doesn't have all the bugs worked out yet, but it looks really interesting.  Maybe for the next expedition, if only for a backup?

[Dale O. Beethe]

Great news about the White Bird!  Can't wait to see what's happening there.  (I personally find the White Bird and her pilots more significant than A.E.  Just my opinion.)

[Ric Gillespie]

Great news about the White Bird!  Can't wait to see what's happening there.  (I personally find the White Bird and her pilots more significant than A.E.  Just my opinion.)

It's an opinion that I share.  L'Oiseau Blanc, in my view, is history's most important missing aircraft.  Had Earhart completed her circumnavigation the world would probably be little different today except that we would be talking about something else. Had Nungesser and Coli arrived in New York to claim the Ortieg Prize (as Lindbergh expected they would) Slim would not have flown to Paris and all the things that happened because the unknown lone American Eagle succeeded where the the two French aces had so spectacularly failed would have happened differently.  Lucky Lindy's triumph inspired a whole generation of young Americans to devote themselves to aviation.  The torch of American ingenuity was ignited and before long leadership in aircraft and engine design and performance passed from Europe to the U.S.

Where the White Bird went down doesn't really matter in that sense.  The important thing is that they didn't make it.  TIGHAR's effort to solve the mystery of their disappearance, like the Earhart Project, is a vehicle for exploring and demonstrating techniques and technologies in historical investigation. 

[Bob Smith]

Is anyone persuing the analysis of Joe Cerniglia about the picture 345 showing possibly a vent tube for a fuel tank, as explained in his reading of a Lockheed Maintenance Manual? Uncanny how similar the shape, but I can't compare the scale.

[ibscas]

I've always found the White Bird story very fascinating, I'm anxious to see what the newsletters is bringing to light.  It sounds like a lot of progress was made early but petered out a bit.  But, alas, I think this topic is dead, we have veered off of the Hail Mary pass quite a bit :).

[Bob Smith]

Not until I get an answer, Craig. I think it's important to research this and determine as close as possible, whether this u-tube shaped thing in picture 345 is or is not a possible vent for a fuel tank!

[ibscas]

By my calculation that object is about 2.2" long and just millimeters wide (if I recall the two red laser dots indicate 2"), is that big enough to actually be a vent for something?  It could be the angle and the shadows, but it appears to be slightly wider on the left and almost looks like a hook shape on the other end - which also appears to be a bit lighter in color than the rest of the object.  Not being an expert in airplane parts I wouldn't know if something of this shape and size could be anything of interest or not.