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Author Topic: Gardner: Most compelling argument? Biggest missing piece?  (Read 95519 times)

Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: Gardner: Most compelling argument? Biggest missing piece?
« Reply #75 on: July 29, 2010, 02:35:06 PM »

Interesting.  I've never heard that suggested before.  I wonder how important it would be to have a clear view of the southern and eastern horizons.

In the northern latitudes, the ecliptic (the plane in which the sun, moon, and planets travel, more or less) is to the south.  If you're looking for planets, you have to look south from the north.

I don't think that is so critical near the equator.  Does the Seven Site have a better view of the south and east than any other part of the island?  I should think that Ameriki would be better in that regard.

In my imaginative reconstruction, the effort to identify their location would take place near the plane while they were still able to transmit.  I can't imagine them heading off to the Seven Site to do star gazing with the intention of returning to the plane to transmit their findings.  I think the sextant would have been ditched near the plane and the box packed with survival gear (and AE's diary) for the island walkabout.

Would the Benedictine bottle have fit into the sextant box?
LTM,

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Chris Johnson

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Re: Gardner: Most compelling argument? Biggest missing piece?
« Reply #76 on: July 29, 2010, 03:30:25 PM »

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I think the sextant would have been ditched near the plane and the box packed with survival gear (and AE's diary) for the island walkabout.
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Never having seen or indeed held any sextant box i can only quess that they are bulky and heavy.  Why would you lugg (man handle) one down from the north western shore to the south eastern shore unless you had the time and energy to take many journeys from the landing site.

My thought is that AE/FN had time over a few days to empty the plane of everything or anything of use.  After going around the island they may have decided on the 7 site as the best place to be and moved accumulated survivial gear to it.  Firstly light stuff such as bags and other hand held stuff and eventualy the box and other heavier stuff.

Does this point to the pair surviving together longer than is often beleived??
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Mark Petersen

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Re: Gardner: Most compelling argument? Biggest missing piece?
« Reply #77 on: July 29, 2010, 03:48:22 PM »

Nice summary and discussion.  Somewhere on this site, I recall it being mentioned that the crabs were less active on one part of the island than the others.  My guess is that there would be more of them on the northern end where there were more coconut trees, but I might be wrong.  Can someone shed some light on this?

If it is the case that the SE part of the island has less coconut crabs while still offering some shade, then this may have also been a factor.  Why?  Because I'm guessing that if I'm a female castaway and used to living in relatively well-off circumstances and suddenly find myself on a deserted island with the world's largest land crabs then I would have a serious case of the heebie-jeebies.  I doubt that the castaway had ever heard of a coconut crab, and the first face-to-face encounter with one must have been pretty jaw dropping.  The castaway likely had no idea that coconut crabs are not man-eaters, and they would be even more mortified to find out that these "monsters" are active at night.  The net result is that our castaway may have wanted to go someplace like the 7 site where there were less of them around.  

As far as the sextant box goes, would it have been useful for food storage as well?  I realize that the tropical heat wouldn't allow anything to be stored for long, but being able to keep food away from the crabs for a few hours or even a day at most would allow the castaway more time to search for water.  
« Last Edit: July 29, 2010, 06:21:50 PM by Mark Petersen »
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Chris Johnson

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Re: Gardner: Most compelling argument? Biggest missing piece?
« Reply #78 on: July 29, 2010, 03:57:29 PM »

Regarding Crabs i seem to remember that there were a lot of burrows in the guano (sp) mud/silt on the lagon shore of the northern end.

I'd want to be away from larger amounts of crabs if i could.

Food storage - my quess is that food caught is cooked and eaten as they hunter gather.  The box would store other items such as 'diary' or medecins.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2010, 04:02:46 PM by Chris Johnson »
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Mark Petersen

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Re: Gardner: Most compelling argument? Biggest missing piece?
« Reply #79 on: July 29, 2010, 06:32:38 PM »

Thanks for the info Chris.  So the crabs burrow into mud along the shoreline as well?   <shudder>

I'm guessing that if I had just caught something big like a turtle and had gone through the trouble of preparing and cooking it, that I'd like to find some way to store the excess for a day or so.  This might prove fruitless in the tropics for our castaway though.  This reminds me of the book, "Into the Wild" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Into_the_Wild), the sad, true-life story of Christopher McCandless.  McCandless ended up stranded in Alaska and because he lacked the knowledge to prepare and smoke the meat from a Moose that he had killed, most of it rotted even while he was dying from starvation. 
« Last Edit: July 29, 2010, 11:32:06 PM by Mark Petersen »
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Ashley Such

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Re: Gardner: Most compelling argument? Biggest missing piece?
« Reply #80 on: July 29, 2010, 09:01:00 PM »

Ric,

What happens if ya'll manage to find pieces of the Electra one day? Are you guys going to put all the objects you've found over the years on exhibit, or are you going to keep it with the group?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

In my opinion, the biggest missing piece is definitely the Electra. It's gotta be somewhere out in that ocean. Whether it'd be 100 miles out, 1,000 miles out, and so on. I think it's rather interesting with the multiple fires, also. I was thinking that maybe if one fire were to burn out, then the castaway(s) would go on and build another one. Then again, how could a fire burn out so quickly? Certainly, I would build fires for either A) Keep the crabs away, B) For warmth, or C) To alert rescue (if one was able to see smoke from so far away). I guess an argument could be those post-lost radio messages. Some of them were frauds, but others... Quite unexplainable, maybe. I guess it would also depend (since AE was running out of fuel) if she'd have enough "life" on the plane to transmit the messages. Then again, I guess the battery would have enough "life" left.


Now, if I remember correctly, she didn't have the radio-direction finder on the plane of the morning of July 2nd? Or did she? If so, wouldn't that be lying around somewhere in the ocean near Gardner (Niku)?
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Gardner: Most compelling argument? Biggest missing piece?
« Reply #81 on: July 30, 2010, 05:31:38 AM »

What happens if ya'll manage to find pieces of the Electra one day? Are you guys going to put all the objects you've found over the years on exhibit, or are you going to keep it with the group?

Decisions about what whether and how to recover and conserve aircraft wreckage will be made if and when we know where it is, how deep it is, and what condition it's in - but "keeping it within the group" is not an option.
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Thom Boughton

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Re: Gardner: Most compelling argument? Biggest missing piece?
« Reply #82 on: August 12, 2010, 04:40:16 PM »

Regarding the logic of the seven site's logical significance...

One argument that I have not seen mentioned about the advantage of this area of the island is its celestial significance. 

Has this been pondered...

The area from the seven site southward, is the only location on the island where one would have a clear unobstructed view of BOTH the eastern and southern sky simultaneously.  Since they were obviously lost, one of the first items on the agenda would be to find out where you were.  Having a clear view of the southern celestial objects just before dawn would give you a nearly perfect timing of the eastern horizon at sunrise.....................



While all the above is true, I doubt that it would enter in to a decision to set up permanent camp at the Seven Site. At least I cannot think of a reason it should sway such a decision.

Once you have taken your sightings and found yourself (or nearly found yourself), the value of it is spent I should think.  Unless the island moves (you didn't find any Dharma Initiative signage, did you?) once you know where you are....or know where you are near...that information isn't going to change much.  Lingering about to take repeated sightings after the matter has been settled would seem pointless.

Unless one had reason to think that rescue was significantly more likely to come from the South or East, I should think food, water, shade, ease of transit beach-to-lagoon, and etc. would far outweigh celestial sightings as a basis for choosing a campsite.  I suspect the ease of celestial sightings would be little more than a happy coincidence.

(Of course....the Castaway might have come for the stars and stayed for the food!  Who's to say?  At this level it's all just idle conjecture, I fear.)

Perhaps there is some related aspect of all of this that I have missed?



....tb
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Ashley Such

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Re: Gardner: Most compelling argument? Biggest missing piece?
« Reply #83 on: August 12, 2010, 09:09:41 PM »

Decisions about what whether and how to recover and conserve aircraft wreckage will be made if and when we know where it is, how deep it is, and what condition it's in - but "keeping it within the group" is not an option.

Okay, I see. Thanks, Ric. :)
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Mike Piner

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Re: Gardner: Most compelling argument? Biggest missing piece?
« Reply #84 on: August 12, 2010, 10:02:47 PM »

By far, the most compelling thing is the post loss messages.  looking at the data amassed by Tighar is the study of the messages in relation to the tides on Niku, and the plots of the five or so directions from Wake, Midway, Hawaii. Itaska that point to Gardner Island.  If we never find anything else, I am convinced of the Tighar Hypothesis, and so is Mother.  Mike Piner
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Alan Williams

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Re: Gardner: Most compelling argument? Biggest missing piece?
« Reply #85 on: August 18, 2010, 05:46:02 PM »

I will have so say, post-loss transmissions are for me the most compelling evidence of the TIGHAR hypothesis. I had started a new thread related to such, however it didn't find popular appeal.

Here is the thing, the big thing: There WEREN'T "fake" transmissions, generally speaking, there were non-corroborated/some known some possibly false reports of questionable RECEPTIONS. That is a big, big, big difference. That to me is the key, false transmissions vs questionable reports of receptions.

Post-loss transmissions, as documented in Ric's brilliant book, are to me the key... Ric and TIGHAR are on the right track...
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Chris Johnson

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Re: Gardner: Most compelling argument? Biggest missing piece?
« Reply #86 on: August 19, 2010, 03:13:39 PM »

For me its the one that got away -TWOF (the wheel of fortune) quite possibly a smoking gun.


Did it get destroyed by the pacific storms or is it washed up somewhere waiting to be found?
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: Gardner: Most compelling argument? Biggest missing piece?
« Reply #87 on: August 19, 2010, 10:11:53 PM »

For me its the one that got away -TWOF (the wheel of fortune) quite possibly a smoking gun.

For those who need help understanding what Chris is talking about, see "The Wheel of Fortune" and Niku VP (WOF--2003).

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Did it get destroyed by the pacific storms or is it washed up somewhere waiting to be found?

Who knows?  Your guess is as good as anybody's.  The lagoon got surveyed again on Niku VI.  I suppose that if that survey had sufficient resolution and completeness, it might be possible to say that the WOF is not to be seen there.  But that doesn't mean that it isn't in there somewhere, under the sand--or still in the passage somewhere, also covered with sand again.
LTM,

           Marty
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Chris Johnson

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Re: Gardner: Most compelling argument? Biggest missing piece?
« Reply #88 on: August 20, 2010, 09:12:15 AM »

For me its the one that got away -TWOF (the wheel of fortune) quite possibly a smoking gun.

For those who need help understanding what Chris is talking about, see "The Wheel of Fortune" and Niku VP (WOF--2003).

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Did it get destroyed by the pacific storms or is it washed up somewhere waiting to be found?

Thanks Marty, very bad form not putting in the links for those readers who may not have come accross the WOF before.

Like a needle in a hay stack it could be anywere on or off the island now.  In Dr Kings updated shoes it mentions that recent storms could have pulverised any items like the WOF to dust.

The 7 site and possible DNA evidence seems to be the key to additional investment for the off reef search.

Who knows?  Your guess is as good as anybody's.  The lagoon got surveyed again on Niku VI.  I suppose that if that survey had sufficient resolution and completeness, it might be possible to say that the WOF is not to be seen there.  But that doesn't mean that it isn't in there somewhere, under the sand--or still in the passage somewhere, also covered with sand again.
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Ashley Such

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Re: Gardner: Most compelling argument? Biggest missing piece?
« Reply #89 on: August 20, 2010, 01:49:53 PM »

For those who need help understanding what Chris is talking about, see "The Wheel of Fortune" and Niku VP (WOF--2003).

Wow, the "Wheel of Fortune" seems interesting (and promising evidence)! Let's hope it can be found again in future expeditions! :) What about the aluminum pieces found on the island by TIGHAR? Has anyone figured out of what those were probably a part of?
« Last Edit: August 20, 2010, 01:51:58 PM by Ashley »
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