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[JNev]

Nice flattening, Ric - that took guts but somehow seems worth it after all as it suddenly takes a lot of mystery out of 2-2-V-1.

The overall dimensions do not appear to be disqualifying.

I've heard the surviving straight edge mentioned before, but now it is truly graphic. 

That edge also lacks any corresponding (parallel) row of rivet holes.  Does anything suggest that it is an edge that was present as-installed, or does it appear to have resulted during or after removal from the host ship by some mechanical means?

[Ric Gillespie]

The overall dimensions do not appear to be disqualifying.

Coincidences happen, but what are the chances that a random piece of wreckage would be so close to the dimensions of the patch? This is starting to get scary.

I've heard the surviving straight edge mentioned before, but now it is truly graphic. 

That edge also lacks any corresponding (parallel) row of rivet holes.  Does anything suggest that it is an edge that was present as-installed, or does it appear to have resulted during or after removal from the host ship by some mechanical means?

That is not a manufactured edge.  That edge very clearly failed from metal fatigue after cycling back and forth against a rigid straight edge.

[JNev]

The overall dimensions do not appear to be disqualifying.

Coincidences happen, but what are the chances that a random piece of wreckage would be so close to the dimensions of the patch? This is starting to get scary.

Realize that - this one has been scary for some time to me.

I've heard the surviving straight edge mentioned before, but now it is truly graphic. 

That edge also lacks any corresponding (parallel) row of rivet holes.  Does anything suggest that it is an edge that was present as-installed, or does it appear to have resulted during or after removal from the host ship by some mechanical means?

That is not a manufactured edge.  That edge very clearly failed from metal fatigue after cycling back and forth against a rigid straight edge.

Thanks for that refresher on the detail, couldn't remember if that was determined.  Given the dimensions, that's another detail that does not disqualify the artifact: if 2-2-V-1 is what is currently theorized, that edge could easily correspond to the framing at forward or aft edge of the lav window, which might have acted as a stiff brace to allow that sort of cyclic fatigue to be imposed.

For any who don't realize what cyclic fatigue is, think of the old trick of bending a wire coat hanger back and forth until the point of failure.

[Monty Fowler]

And since there's no paint residue on the putative patch (I just love saying that for some reason), that's another indicator.

LTM, who thinks no paint can be pretty cool,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 ECSP

[Ric Gillespie]

And since there's no paint residue on the putative patch (I just love saying that for some reason), that's another indicator.

Yes indeed.  Here's the official report on the paint research.

[Matt Revington]

So if I remember correctly the absence of any paint traces pretty much rules out WWII aircraft and most civilian aircraft.  That narrows it down quite a bit.

[Ric Gillespie]

So if I remember correctly the absence of any paint traces pretty much rules out WWII aircraft and most civilian aircraft.  That narrows it down quite a bit.

"Rules out" is probably a bit strong but the apparent absence of paint is certainly supportive of the Patch Hypothesis.

[Monty Fowler]

I just thought of another data point that supports the putative patch theory - The Saga of the Fonts.

Remember that? And how we all went round and round the font merry-go-round, even to the point of spending quite a bit of the Dayton expedition on seeking out various fonts stenciled on various parts of various aircraft. But at the end of the day ... the font really doesn't matter that much as far as Lockheed goes.

Because if the putative patch is actually THE PATCH, then we should start digging into Pan Am aircraft, construction and repairs of that time period, if such a thing is possible, and if it can be tied in with Pan Am's Miami operations. Would that be a slam dunk? Noooooo, but it'd make The Patch a lot harder to explain away as something else.

LTM, who thinks no paint can be as exciting as dry paint,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 ECSP

[Ric Gillespie]

Because if the putative patch is actually THE PATCH, then we should start digging into Pan Am aircraft, construction and repairs of that time period, if such a thing is possible,

Good point Monty. Pan Am's Miami operation might very well have a different source for aluminum sheet than Lockheed Burbank.  It's all going to be ALCOA product but it might be from a different plant.  Also, unlike Lockheed, Pan Am didn't build airplanes.  Any sheet they had on hand was for repairs and modifications - but finding photos that show labeling on Pan Am aircraft being repaired in Miami could be tricky.

[James Stephen Magers]

Just a thought here about the possibility of Fred N. kicking out the Patch. Betty's notebook hinted at Fred acting upset, possibly even a bit irrational. Let's imagine a Hard Landing bad enough to damage the aircraft and maybe even cause a head injury to Fred. When Fred climbed to the front of the aircraft for the landing he left his Sextant in the rear of the aircraft. After the rough landing he wants his instruments & personal effects and climbs back there to get them. It is hot and the smell of gasoline from the ruptured gas tanks is overwhelming. With that motivation he kicks out the Patch. If he felt those instruments were worth the risk I can see him retrieving them, even at his own peril. The more I think about this the more Betty's cryptic notes send chills down my spine!

Stephen Magers

The night wrote a check that the morning couldn't cash

[Randy Conrad]

James has a good point!!! From reading Betty's notebook, its a strong indication that Fred was trying to get out of the plane for a big reason! Here's a scenario...Take James theory and add this into the big picture. Amelia ran out of gas approaching Gardner Island. She puts the plane down in a hurry, but the landing is very hard. So hard that it breaks the landing gear off and maybe a wing or two as it scoots along the reef. Now the plane comes to a complete stop...Basically a shell! As it sits there briefly it rolls and blocks the doorway on the left side of the plane. Fred has no way of getting out. Fuel tanks are mangled and he's badly hurt from the hard landing. He's overcome by fumes and is panically trying to get out of the plane in fear of the plane blowing up. He can't get out of the window, because of the brace against the window. So he goes to the back of the plane and kicks out the patched window. By now, Amelia has made her way out of the plane...and begins to help Fred. He's badly hurt. He's desperately trying to get out of the plane as water begins to fill the back of the plane. He's hysterical because of his head injury. Eventually, after he gets out of the plane...sometime later he dies from his head injury. In the meantime, Amelia goes back and retrieves the necessary things to survive and then tries to radio for help. For several days she tries...but eventually the shell of the plane is sliding closer to the reef's edge. As its doing this its rolling from side to side with every wave action. Eventually, sometime on or after July 7...the remnants of the plane rolls over the reef's edge and possibly to the present site of the Richie anomaly!

[Chris Johnson]

With respect but is this acceptable aviation archeaological technique?  Might you have destroyed the original curvature of the piece of aluminum, which some day might have been useful in determining where it really came from?  Why did you have to push it flat to measure it?  Could you not have used a soft tape measure to measure along the curvature or cut a narrow strip of thin cardboard and placed it on the piece following the curvature of the metal.

Just a thought thats all

[Tim Mellon]

Does 2-2-V-1 belong to TIGHAR or to Kiribati?

Is straightening out the piece of metal what is contemplated by the concept of "preservation" as used in the 13 October 1989 hand-written Agreement between TIGHAR and the Republic of Kiribati?

[Bill Mangus]

Does 2-2-V-1 belong to TIGHAR or to Kiribati?

Is straightening out the piece of metal what is contemplated by the concept of "preservation" as used in the 13 October 1989 hand-written Agreement between TIGHAR and the Republic of Kiribati?

It wasn't permanently straightened.  It popped back to its 'original' shape when released.  No harm done.

[Chris Johnson]

Does 2-2-V-1 belong to TIGHAR or to Kiribati?

Is straightening out the piece of metal what is contemplated by the concept of "preservation" as used in the 13 October 1989 hand-written Agreement between TIGHAR and the Republic of Kiribati?

Who says?

It wasn't permanently straightened.  It popped back to its 'original' shape when released.  No harm done.