Malaysian Flight 370

[Monty Fowler]

It doesn't matter how "technologically advanced" a civilization or anything it builds is - fire is, has been and always will be one of the things that can turn all of it into nothing more than ashes anytime it wants to.

LTM,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 CER

[Jeff Victor Hayden]

Until the flight recorders are recovered (if) then all possibilities are still on the table.

Hijack? yes but no one has claimed anything and they would appear to have been going nowhere.

Suicide? Again yes but it will have been the longest suicide flight in history, so far.

Accident? Again, another possibility but, if so then we have to learn from this so it doesn't occur again.

I would suggest that these will be the most eagerly awaited black box recoveries ever.

[Monty Fowler]

My optimism is starting to wane ... the meter is running on the pinger batteries and if those die before the searchers can recover the black boxes, well ...

It's roughly comparable to trying to find a single penny. In a football field. At night. Without lights. While suspended 50 feet above the field. And did I mention it was raining?

LTM, who still has his fingers crossed for this one,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 CER

[Jeff Victor Hayden]

My optimism is starting to wane ... the meter is running on the pinger batteries and if those die before the searchers can recover the black boxes, well ...
It's roughly comparable to trying to find a single penny. In a football field. At night. Without lights. While suspended 50 feet above the field. And did I mention it was raining?

LTM, who still has his fingers crossed for this one,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 CER

They have not been able to regain the signals. The timespan fits in with the batteries giving out. :(
Anyone recall the Helios Airways flight 522? A flight attendant with a couple of hundred hours in Cessnas tried to rescue the situation, couldn't work out the radio but had a go at flying the plane, sadly the engines flamed out on him and that was that. Top man, full marks for guts and determination.

[Mark Appel]

Hmmm. CNN reports on citizen investigators of Flight 370... So, are we "Avgeeks?"

http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/13/travel/aviation-geek-culture/index.html?hpt=hp_t3

[Tim Gard]

They have not been able to regain the signals. The timespan fits in with the batteries giving out. :(
Anyone recall the Helios Airways flight 522? A flight attendant with a couple of hundred hours in Cessnas tried to rescue the situation, couldn't work out the radio but had a go at flying the plane, sadly the engines flamed out on him and that was that. Top man, full marks for guts and determination.

Flight 522 ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GywVDgKlg6g

[Monty Fowler]

TIGHAR has been down this road already: http://news.yahoo.com/malaysia-jet-search-area-too-deep-submarine-004242501.html

I think the "search" had morphed into the "just plain dumb stumbled upon it luck" stage.

LTM,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 CER

[Bruce Thomas]

A key difference with this search (brought to mind by the Bluefin AUV prematurely returning to the surface on its own on its first dive) that comes to my mind: if that AUV gets lost down in the depths of the Indian Ocean, there won't be the talented Wolfgang Burnside and his marvelous ROV to go rescue it!

[Ric Gillespie]

The Bluefin 21 operated by Phoenix International is giving them trouble?  I'm shocked, SHOCKED!

[JNev]

Smoke on the water...

[Mark Appel]

My non-TIGHAR (but I'm working on them) work colleagues were amused at my loud, groaning reaction to the announcement that they were going to deploy the Bluefin 21... "Oh, they'll never find it now..."

[Monty Fowler]

http://news.yahoo.com/mini-sub-second-mission-first-mh370-search-aborted-234405534.html - "The hunt for a missing Malaysian plane suffered another setback Wednesday when a second seabed search by a mini-submarine was cut short due to "technical" troubles after the first also aborted in very deep water."

Been There, Done That, Got the T-Shirt.

LTM,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 219 CER

[Ric Gillespie]

My non-TIGHAR (but I'm working on them) work colleagues were amused at my loud, groaning reaction to the announcement that they were going to deploy the Bluefin 21... "Oh, they'll never find it now..."

CNN has asked me to discuss our experience with this particular fish today at 2pm and again at 2:45.

[John Ousterhout]

How well does the Bluefin's sonar work when it must stay a couple thousand feet above the bottom?  Would the resolution be good enough to make out a wing section?  Would the resolution be too poor to even see "recent signs of habitation?"

Also, what is the preferred search pattern - "mowing the lawn" back and forth, or an expanding rectangle centered on the best-guess location?

[Ric Gillespie]

How well does the Bluefin's sonar work when it must stay a couple thousand feet above the bottom?

As you would expect, the further away from the target, the lower the resolution.

Would the resolution be good enough to make out a wing section?  Would the resolution be too poor to even see "recent signs of habitation?"

Hard to say, but resolution is not the only problem.  The sonar's ability to detect an object depends a great deal on at what angle the sounds waves hit the target.  At Niku, the AUV's sonar flew right over the huge mass of wreckage from the stern of Norwich City and never "saw" it.  We found it with the ROV and told them where it was.  YThey went back and tried again from a different angle and were able to see it.

Also, what is the preferred search pattern - "mowing the lawn" back and forth, or an expanding rectangle centered on the best-guess location?

They generally mow the lawn.