Physics Question

[Ric Gillespie]

So it is possible that the engine was blown off and fell to the ground while the rest of the plane kept going? In other words, could the engine be in a spot before the rest of the wreckage?

I don't see that happening.  If the engine comes off the plane in flight it follows a trajectory like a dropped bomb.  The rest of the plane, without the weight at the front, pitches up, the wings stall, and the whole thing flutters down tail first. I don't see any way it could travel farther than the engine.

[Jon Romig]

Accepting all evidence presented:

1. The engine did not end up in the same location as other wreckage (the island) or we would have found the engine.
2. The plane very likely did not come apart in the air and, if it did, the engine could be located a very great distance from the island or even from the pond. We should discount this unlikely scenario for the current search.
3. Given that aircraft wreckage (not including the engine) was found at or near the island and the engine was not, it is thus very likely that the airplane came apart during the landing at some distance from the island. The engine will likely be found near there. This scenario is supported by the removal of the wingtip floats and the very high likelihood of a failed landing due to catching a wingtip.
4. Given the absence of an electrical system, the three explosions (if the explosions were the fuel tanks) would likely have been the result of a spark caused by a metal part of the aircraft penetrating one tank during the crash. The other tanks would likely have exploded in quick succession due to metal parts of the first tank penetrating the second, etc.
5. How buoyant would the wreckage have been with the engine and fuel tanks removed? Much of the remainder of the plane was wood. Could it have "flown," coasted, drifted or been blown (or carried by ice) to or onto the island? If it did, the location of the wreck (and the engine) could easily be some distance from the island. I suggest some attention be paid to the magnetic anomalies in the pond that are located some distance to the the south of the island.
6. The scenario of the engine becoming a projectile, especially given the likely crash scenario of the aircraft catching a wingtip and suddenly rotating nose-in, seems improbable. It is only possible if the plane landed VERY long and almost immediately hit the island dead-on. That seems much less likely than the above scenario, which would have almost certainly have occurred UNLESS they hit the island immediately. The scenario I describe above would have occurred over a massively much broader range of touchdown points.
7. Is it possible that the pilot was aiming for or near the island and the deeper water around it, confidently expecting to land safely, but with a failing engine that would prohibit taxiing later to shore? Did the White Bird carry a dingy?

Thanks,

Jon

[Ric Gillespie]

5. How buoyant would the wreckage have been with the engine and fuel tanks remaining? Much of the remainder of the plane was wood. Could it have "flown," coasted, drifted or been blown (or carried by ice) to or onto the island? If it did, the location of the wreck (and the engine) could easily be some distance from the island. I suggest some attention be paid to the magnetic anomalies in the pond that are located some distance to the the south of the island.

You betcha.

6. The scenario of the engine becoming a projectile, especially given the likely crash scenario of the aircraft catching a wingtip and suddenly rotating nose-in, seems improbable.

Agreed.

7. Is it possible that the pilot was aiming for or near the island and the deeper water around it, confidently expecting to land safely, but with a failing engine that would prohibit taxiing later to shore? Did the White Bird carry a dingy?

No dinghy.

See the October 2022 issue of TIGHAR Tracks.  This looks to me like a stall/spin, with the aircraft crashing almost vertically into the water, the engine driven into the fuel tanks causing the explosions, and buoyant debris (including aluminum still attached to wooden structure) wind driven onto the island or washed through the outlet at the northwest end and done the Branch River.

[Don White]

In imagining this, I picture a post-crash fire as the remaining fuel that did not go up in the initial explosions continued to burn (perhaps a burning gasoline slick) and consume the combustible parts of the airplane (which was most of it) that remained above water. This might even explain some damage to found artifacts, such as the oily cylinder apparently blown apart, perhaps by being heated in a fire with oil inside it.

Don W