Will 2022 be the year?

[Don White]

Don to Don:

As a scientist, you know that 100% certainty is rare. More often it's a probability approaching 100% (or not). Even when effectively something is treated as fact for all practical purposes, it may still not be 100% certain. Archaeology and history are especially subject to this, and a new discovery can invalidate years of carefully constructed theory. Ask the sextant-box experts about this.

Mostly we are dealing with probabilities and the preponderance of the evidence.

To get to 100% for the various Earhart theories requires a discovery that clinches the theory beyond a reasonable doubt.

For Crashed and Sank, find the airplane on the ocean floor far from Nikumaroro.
For Japanese Capture, find a Japanese government document from 1937 that clearly states this.
For Niku hypothesis, find the elusive "any idiot artifact" -- a part that could only be from NR16020 or human remains with identifiable DNA.

Even then, there will be skeptics who will insist that the evidence is faked. You can't convince everyone.

LTM,
Don

[Andrew M McKenna]

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/podcasts/overheard/article/amelia-earhart-the-lady-vanishes?rid=6004AA3191A718DE3C8EBB87DB8BFA9E&cmpid=org=ngp::mc=crm-email::src=ngp::cmp=editorial::add=History_20220307

Interesting post from National Geographic today.

I was wondering why this would be coming out now, until I got to this paragraph:

"In fact, another attempt for an ending is in the works. The intrepid Bob Ballard and archaeologist Fred Hiebert are working on another expedition, tentatively set for January of 2023. They plan on making a trip back to the Pacific in hopes of finding any remains of Amelia's Lockheed Electra. Will they find the smoking gun at last? We shall see."

So looks to me like Ballard and Nat Geo still want to go back to Nikumaroro. 

Andrew

[Don Yee]

Don to Don:

As a scientist, you know that 100% certainty is rare. More often it's a probability approaching 100% (or not). Even when effectively something is treated as fact for all practical purposes, it may still not be 100% certain. Archaeology and history are especially subject to this, and a new discovery can invalidate years of carefully constructed theory. Ask the sextant-box experts about this.

Mostly we are dealing with probabilities and the preponderance of the evidence.

To get to 100% for the various Earhart theories requires a discovery that clinches the theory beyond a reasonable doubt.

For Crashed and Sank, find the airplane on the ocean floor far from Nikumaroro.
For Japanese Capture, find a Japanese government document from 1937 that clearly states this.
For Niku hypothesis, find the elusive "any idiot artifact" -- a part that could only be from NR16020 or human remains with identifiable DNA.

Even then, there will be skeptics who will insist that the evidence is faked. You can't convince everyone.

LTM,
Don

I should have put "/s" after my post (for sarcasm). My point was that the other hypotheses out there have no evidence (like zero), and it was not about getting to 100% (I agree we may never get there). To equate them at a level of "95%" with the TIGAR evidence is ludicrous. At best, those hypotheses have speculation, not physical evidence.
Don...

[Kurt Kummer]

Yep, that was the interesting part to me, too.  Bob Ballard wants to go back to find Amelia.  Although Niku isn't mentioned in the plans specifically, that's probably where he'll go.  And it's also interesting that NatGeo is already ramping up the publicity.

[Don White]

Don to Don:

As a scientist, you know that 100% certainty is rare. More often it's a probability approaching 100% (or not). Even when effectively something is treated as fact for all practical purposes, it may still not be 100% certain. Archaeology and history are especially subject to this, and a new discovery can invalidate years of carefully constructed theory. Ask the sextant-box experts about this.

Mostly we are dealing with probabilities and the preponderance of the evidence.

To get to 100% for the various Earhart theories requires a discovery that clinches the theory beyond a reasonable doubt.

For Crashed and Sank, find the airplane on the ocean floor far from Nikumaroro.
For Japanese Capture, find a Japanese government document from 1937 that clearly states this.
For Niku hypothesis, find the elusive "any idiot artifact" -- a part that could only be from NR16020 or human remains with identifiable DNA.

Even then, there will be skeptics who will insist that the evidence is faked. You can't convince everyone.

LTM,
Don

I should have put "/s" after my post (for sarcasm). My point was that the other hypotheses out there have no evidence (like zero), and it was not about getting to 100% (I agree we may never get there). To equate them at a level of "95%" with the TIGAR evidence is ludicrous. At best, those hypotheses have speculation, not physical evidence.
Don...

Thanks, Don. Now i can feel embarrassed that I didn't realize it was sarcasm.

[Andrew M McKenna]

Yep, that was the interesting part to me, too.  Bob Ballard wants to go back to find Amelia.  Although Niku isn't mentioned in the plans specifically, that's probably where he'll go.  And it's also interesting that NatGeo is already ramping up the publicity.

Ballard is a deep water guy, Heibert is an archaeologist who works on land.  The two are incompatible.   Ballard doesn't like to get his ship anywhere near a reef, and the ship has no realistic capabilities to get people ashore - they had one 6 man safety dingy - so my guess is that if both are planning an expedition, it will involve more than just Ballard's ship.  Two ships, two teams, each doing different things, maybe concurrently, or not.

I'll ping Fred, but I doubt I'll get much info as Nat Geo is usually pretty tight lipped about their plans until they are ready to make announcements on their own terms.

Andrew

[Ric Gillespie]

I'm having lunch with the now-retiring head of NatGeo documentaries on Friday.  We're old friends.  I'll see what I can find out.

[Denise Kelsey]

Looks like Betchart is at least thinking about running a trip next summer:  "There may be an Amelia Earhart voyage in late June/July 2023.  Stay tuned!"   https://betchartexpeditions.com/aus-nz_amelia_earhart.htm

I assume it's scheduled to take advantage of any publicity from a Ballard trip and TV special.

[Ric Gillespie]

I don't know about Betchart but I have it on good authority that a Ballard search of Howland and Niku will not happen this year. It could be the first half of 2023 or even 2024.
If Betchart is able to find enough victims to put together another tourist trip to Niku they'll need TIGHAR's okay before they can get a permit from Kiribati - and they'd need a supervising archaeologist before we would approve the trip.  In the past they've used former-TIGHAR member Tom King, but he is no longer able to do that kind of travel.