TIGHAR
Amelia Earhart Search Forum => The Islands: Expeditions, Facts, Castaway, Finds and Environs => Topic started by: Tom Swearengen on August 04, 2011, 12:33:28 PM
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Looking at Google Earth (again) or Niku, and wondering what the beach/shallow water conditions are on other locations of the island. Any possiblilites that they could have landed the electra on the northern shore line, from west to east, ending up near the seven site? We know from earlier expeditions that there isnt anything in the lagoon. Is the landing area near the Norwich City the only possibility? Also, Ric has told us of the reef conditions just off the beach at the shipwreck, but do we know if the area on the northern shore is alot smoother and better for a possible landing area?
How about the southern shore, from the lagoon entrance to the southeastern point?
OR is this a crazy hypothesis?
Tom
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Working with Dr King et al's book Amelia Earharts shoes the 1997 expedition looked at the area Aukaraime South as a potential landing site. The reasons were that is was "very flat" and photos showed it to be clear of vegitation in 1939, 1941, 1953 and 1975.
Rics idea was that the plane landed here, taxied up into the shade (hence not seen by navy fliers) and that in time with nor'westers was pushed into the lagoon.
Anyway the search in 1997 kind of disproved this theory and current thinking, oral evidence and nessie photo's point more to the Nutiran shore just north of the Norwich City.
Other areas looked at and ticked of as not suitable include the nortern northern mud flat of the lagoon shore.
The windwerd side may be a non starter because of the cross winds but to be honest I can't find a quote for that :(
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Could it be possible that they picked the spot near the ship wreck because they might of thought it not a ship wreck and just a ship in anchor? Thinking if we touch down here they can help us get home. For example they did some circles because they saw it from a far. When they got there and circled they realized that it was a wreck it was too late. But being the only man made object they thought it best to put down there. That and the fact that was so flat.
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I'd say that there are many places on the reef that an aircraft could have been landed, North, South, East, and West. The reef is typically some 100 yards wide from the beach to the edge, and at low tide there is typically less than a few inches of water out there. The reef flat at the 7 site is pretty attractive in terms of flat and uniform, but the wind does blow more strongly and the surf tends to be higher, factors that may not be easily understood from a pass overhead.
It is the anecdotal and photographic evidence that has led us to look at the area north of the NC shipwreck. We have to focus somewhere, and there just isn't the same kind of hints to point to other locations as there are with the NW end of Niku. I feel that the NC wreck would certainly have been a draw whether or not it could be discerned from the air that it was a shipwreck as opposed to a ship anchored off. Probably pretty obvious that it was a wreck, but a magnet nonetheless.
AMCK
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Here are three (low resolution) photos of the reef flat at low tide. First is right next to the landing channel on the South side, and the others are just off the 7 site one looking East, the other west. Either are reasonable places to land a plane if you had no other choices. AMCK
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Thank you for that first picture. that really gives me more of and idea what the coral flat looks like. i thought it ran out less than it does. from that picture really tells how far out some of it goes.
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My thinking was this: AE and Noonan were approaching from the Northwest. They probably made at least 2 passes over the island to check it out. My thoughts were that they might have wanted a longer glide decent to bleed off airspeed, hence the beach landing from the Northwest tip, towards the 7 site. About 19,000 feet of landing room, versus about 1700 at the NC site.
Andrew's Pics of the beach and the reef help alot. But, landing near the NC meant that they may have thought of some provisions there. Try this: on a NW to SE approach, they fly over the shipwreck, make a left turn and follow the shoreline to the southeast point, AE sets up a slow decent for landing, and ends up on the North West corner, close enough to the Norwich City, but unfortunately also too close to the breaking waves of the incoming tide.
Dont know how that theory will hold up, maybe some of our pilot menbers could chime in on how they 'might' approach this landing situation, with only a visual reference to the shipwreck, and with out all the other information that we have. The Electra IS THERE---has to be.
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While I agree with TIGHAR's going hypothesis that AE/FN landed near the NC, my backup has been that they either landed or crashed near the Seven Site, and never left. There is a lengthy thread on this, somewhere.
To me, there's a strange disconnect between landing on the West side, and camping on the NE side...because there aren't many obvious advantages to leaving the first for the second, while there are several disadvantages. In brief:
Advantage: Rick says that there is a constant breeze blowing on the NE tip, and that our castaways would have sought to get away from the sweltering West.
Neutral: Some have speculated that the narrowness of the land at the Seven Site would have allowed them to observe more of the surrounding sea, and to easily be able to traverse between ocean beach and the lagoon. But a quick look at the grid map shows that the Seven Site isn't the narrowest area, that's a few 100 yards further East. For that matter, the eastern tip of the island, where they would have had a sweeping view of the sea (after all, the CG station was posted there later) was nearby, so if those were the attributes they were looking for, why travel all the way from the West, and then stop a few 100 yards from your ideal location?
Disadvantages:
A) Why leave the most famous "landmark": a 12 year old shipwreck? It would seem natural that it would grab the attention of any scouts to the island, whether by air or sea. Why forsake that for some indistinguishable spot in shrubbery on the opposite side?
B) Why leave a spot that would offer at least some shelter, and perhaps rudimentary supplies of some sort? The NC was a burned out hulk, but there was still a shell there that could have offered some protection from animals and the elements. Instead, they supposedly exchanged this for the Seven Site, which had millipedes and crabs that were so aggressive, the castaways had to build a ring of fires around themselves for protection.
C) Given that the ships guts were spilled out all over the west side, (as Tom describes in his fictional story of local boys who go to visit), surely this had a least some kind of opportunity to use something as a spear or blade or eating utensil or...anything. Instead, they decided to forsake any resources here and carry the few items they did have from the plane over a mile away to the Seven Site. And they did this with one or both of them hurt (according to our going theory).
D) The human factor: as someone mentioned above, it would seem unlikely for them to leave the one evidence of human civilization-no matter how forlorn its condition-so they could go camp out in bushes a mile away.
What underscores all of this is that people need a compelling reason to move from Point A to Point B. Especially if Point B is well away from Point A. Perhaps they landed on the westside, and then were on a recon around the island until the came to the Seven Site and stopped because of physical injuries that prevented them going any further. That's plausible. But then why bring their handful of items (like the box) along with them for the recon?
For that matter, is there anything at all that connects the two sites? Is there any physical evidence in hand of AE/FN or the Electra on any other part of the island? It sounds like it's hard to say definitively...originally there was thought to be the heel of a woman's shoe on the South side, but I don't think that is cannon any more. There were scraps of metal and I think roofing material (?) found at the Seven Site and used for cooking, that was thought to maybe come from the West, but was that from the plantation, or from the village which post-dates AE and FN? For that matter, how do we know AE/FN used those, instead of the CG or the magistrate?
If we take all that TIGHAR has found and theorized about over the years, all the tremendous work that they did, and categorize it according to levels of relative certainty, I think at the center you have to put the bones and likely personal affects of AE and FN, as found at the Seven Site. That's a bullseye, because the find is unimpeachably documented, the materials have been tested as likely to be a match, and because any alternative explanation would be more stranger than that of it being AE/FN. So to me that's concrete. I also believe in TIGHAR's theory of traveling on a positioning line...I find it very compelling. So that's our inner circle of concrete evidence and ironclad theory.
The next concentric circle would have to be the radio messages. I think Ric has made a case here...but it's not as concrete as the "bullseye" material, and even if it were true, it doesn't by itself show anything more than they were alive in a plane in rough surf for up to three days...i.e., even if there were radio messages, it's easy to have widely different interpretations of the messages themselves.
The third concentric circle is everything else...a whole mass of things ranging from an object in an old photo to the recollections of villagers many decades after the fact. Any of these could be true, but they are definitely on the outer edge of what we can take seriously.
And so there you have it: TIGHAR has built a strong case that AE/FN made it to Niku, and spent some amount of time at the Seven Site. And that's all anyone can say for sure. Based on that, you could easily say that they crashed or landed on the NE side, and camped within yards of where they emerged on the beach.
I would point out that every single one of the personal artifacts found can float. For all the world, they could have swam for shore, picked an item or two out of the surf, and collapsed in the bush. And that would explain why the Seven Site has so little in personal artififacts.
So that's my backup theory to our going hypothesis. Sorry for the long post.
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I think that Jeff has seen what I was talking about. I fly 'alittle', but not a licensed pilot. One of the things early on that I learned flying over water--and ALOT of it in Beaufort, SC--is that there is alway the possiblilty of going down in the water, and if land, or an island, is near, to use the shoreline as a runway. That thought may be in error, but, the idea was to bleed the airspeed as much as possible to help ease the impact. Now, light planes arent an Electra, and I have no idea what the emergency land procedures are for an Electra. But, even I can land something in 19,000 feet. In 1900 feet, maybe not.
The other point that I think has been brought up about the landing site verses the 7 site, IF the Electra was landed near the shipwreck, I wonder why AE and Fred, or maybe just Amelia, hiked down to the 7 site area. Granted, if they did overfly the island on their approach as I think they (I) would have, then they would have seen the 7 site as a long way from their landing area. A long hike, no maps--other than maybe a note that was made during the overflight, little provisions, very hot weather. If they wanted to be in an area to watch for possible ships or rescue, I would think that a camp on the Northwestern point near the shipwreck would servae as a good place. Maybe not perfect, but near a landmark tht can be seen from the water as well as the air.
I'm not disputing the facts of the 7 site at all. Quite the contrary. But my thoughts are 'WHY" would she or they go to the seven site after landing at the shipwreck site? Exploring? yes I can see that. Looking for food? yes I can see that too. The timeline from landing (wherever that was) to ariving at the 7 site would be interesting. A week? 10 days? I would think that other factors would come into play: heat, lack of provisions and WATER, possibily injures.
Sorry to conjure up all of this optional stuff. I tried to look at this from a "what if scenario" point of view, and what would I do if placed in the same situation. Stimulate some thinking. The fact of the matter is that we were NOT with AE & Fred when they made their decision on where to land, nor were we in the Electra when it did land. We can theorize on the conditions at the time. I guess my question is, are we missing something? Ric and TIGHAR are on the right track, and have found an enormous amount of evidence. I think we can safely say that they were on NIKU. One big piece of the puzzle is missing---a pretty large aircraft.
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I wonder why AE and Fred, or maybe just Amelia, hiked down to the 7 site area.
I had puzzled over the same question in my mind. My thinking on the issue all comes down to water. I would think that they/she found the cache left by the NC crew as evidenced by them finding the cork with chains (match what would be used in water casks of the day) near or with the bones (if in fact they belonged to our intrepid crew) and the benedictine bottle. Once rescue was not immediate and they/she started running out of water there would be nothing to hold her to that location so explore for a more hospitable location and check out the water pools at the other end of the island in hopes they are fresh water. Once finding they are not, but the area is a bit better then previous location (shade, trade winds, easy access to clam beds, etc) plus the fact that now you are a long way from NC site where you started from you might as well just put down there for the time being. The time being lasting until her demise. Just what I see in my minds eye. Also believe Fred's injuries were severe enough as to finally incapacitate him to the point that he could not make it to shore and went over the side with the Electrica.
LTM,
Don
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The big question I keep asking, besides the "why" leave the wreck, is why could they not move the Electra? If we are to believe that she was able to use the radio, which I do. We then have to believe that she can run an engine. Why not bring the plane closer to shore and save it from the surf? Why not roll it down to the 7 site? Surly if I am to do something like that I would want the plane. I mean if a search party was to find me they would be more interested in the Electra than they would a 12 year old Ship Wreck.
Just questions I don't think anyone will ever answer but good to ponder in our search for them.
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Don & Rich have valid questions. I think that if the Electra was landed, it may NOT have been able to taxi, much less roll on the sandy beach. Landing gear issues, blown tire, stuck in the reef, etc.
Don's theory about Fred being in the Electra at its demise is something that I had not considered. If critically injured and not much hope, Amelia may have left him there, especially if he were unconcious, or deceased. I'm guess his injury is speculation, other than a reported radio message?
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Don's theory about Fred being in the Electra at its demise is something that I had not considered. If critically injured and not much hope, Amelia may have left him there, especially if he were unconcious, or deceased. I'm guess his injury is speculation, other than a reported radio message?
If you tend to believe Betty's Notebook (http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Documents/Notebook/notebook.html) and/or Mable Duncklee's Letter (http://tighar.org/wiki/Mabel_Duncklee) then you would have to believe that at least Fred is injured and perhaps Amelia as well just not to the same extent. Pure speculation but would think that most probable injury for Fred would be head injury from contacting something within the cabin causing a concusion. If he does have a concussion now he is hurt to the point that it could eventually incapacitate him, and Amelia herself is injured to some extent, does she have the strength to get him to shore especially if he is either not cooperating with her or worse (unconscious)? Plus your inside the Electra in the heat of the day with the sun beating down on it. I would think it would be like a dutch oven further dehydrating you thus sapping more of your strength. Not a pleasant situation. IMHO, If the Niku Theory is the correct one as too their disappearance, I don't think Fred ever made it to shore.
LTM,
Don
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The big question I keep asking, besides the "why" leave the wreck, is why could they not move the Electra? If we are to believe that she was able to use the radio, which I do. We then have to believe that she can run an engine. Why not bring the plane closer to shore and save it from the surf? Why not roll it down to the 7 site? Surly if I am to do something like that I would want the plane. I mean if a search party was to find me they would be more interested in the Electra than they would a 12 year old Ship Wreck.
Just questions I don't think anyone will ever answer but good to ponder in our search for them.
This is what Ric has to say about the reef near the Norwich City in another thread! Jagged with pot holes (http://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,119.msg428.html#msg428)
Seems once on the reef edge there is no way to safely taxi to the shore line. Not sure if this is the case near the Seven site but guess it may be typical of the fringe reef?
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Don's theory about Fred being in the Electra at its demise is something that I had not considered. If critically injured and not much hope, Amelia may have left him there, especially if he were unconcious, or deceased. I'm guess his injury is speculation, other than a reported radio message?
If you tend to believe Betty's Notebook (http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Documents/Notebook/notebook.html) and/or Mable Duncklee's Letter (http://tighar.org/wiki/Mabel_Duncklee) then you would have to believe that at least Fred is injured and perhaps Amelia as well just not to the same extent. Pure speculation but would think that most probable injury for Fred would be head injury from contacting something within the cabin causing a concusion. If he does have a concussion now he is hurt to the point that it could eventually incapacitate him, and Amelia herself is injured to some extent, does she have the strength to get him to shore especially if he is either not cooperating with her or worse (unconscious)? Plus your inside the Electra in the heat of the day with the sun beating down on it. I would think it would be like a dutch oven further dehydrating you thus sapping more of your strength. Not a pleasant situation. IMHO, If the Niku Theory is the correct one as too their disappearance, I don't think Fred ever made it to shore.
LTM,
Don
I posted a thread where I suggested that Fred injury is not necesserily a fact Was Fred injured? (http://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,352.0.html). My main thrust was that Mables message was a fake and that Betty was only guessing that the 'man was hurt'.
One scene in the recent Discovery channel show that I like is the one with Fred and Amelia sat on the shore looking down cast.
Its only my guess based on what I read in Rics book though.
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With respect to overflying the Island, let's remember that they had just flown about 3000 statute miles (2600 to Howland area then 400 to Gardner) and had no reliable guess about how much fuel they had left. They would not have wanted to have had to make a "Dead Stick" landing.
Looking at the Island on GoogleEarth, the East side reef flat looks like an International Airport runway, over 200 feet wide and from 2 to 3 miles long. And, with a wind from the SE it would look like a perfect landing area.
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That was my point Harry. But Ric & Co. are the only ones that can speak of the reef/beach/shoreline conditions on Niku. For our pilots out there, think about how and where you would try to land. Not casting dispersions here-----I think the Electra is there.
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Yes, I have no knowledge of the reef flat conditions other than TIGHAR pictures The East side conditions don't look any worse (or any better) than those near the Ship Wreck.
Assuming that they had enough fuel, at low tide conditions they could have "Taxied" up to the NC area. All conjecture of course.
I believe the landing was a rough one and FN suffered a concussion and died within a few days. I think that he went into the sea, or the lagoon, with the Electra.
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Yes, I have no knowledge of the reef flat conditions other than TIGHAR pictures The East side conditions don't look any worse (or any better) than those near the Ship Wreck.
Assuming that they had enough fuel, at low tide conditions they could have "Taxied" up to the NC area. All conjecture of course.
I believe the landing was a rough one and FN suffered a concussion and died within a few days. I think that he went into the sea, or the lagoon, with the Electra.
OK how many is a few? We have at least 4 days worth of male voice!
He got out of the plane Betty's note book, near bottom (http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Documents/Notebook/notebook.html)
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Why did the crew not transmit where they were ? It was easy to find the coordinates from observations of sun , stars and planets .
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Admittedly, I should have been more precise about "a few days", however, it isn't possible to say precisely how long he lived.
I don't remember seeing a date on Betty's notebook telling us just exactly when the transmission she heard took place. Was it on 7/4 or 7/5 or 7/6? Probably not on 7/7 since that was the day of Lambrecht's flyover and he didn't see a plane or wreckage or at least he didn't say so.
If FN suffered a concussion on landing and it obviously went untreated, then who knows how long he survived? No way to be more precise, maybe it was 4 days, maybe 5. Really doesn't matter, I'm just expressing an opinion, if that is allowed.
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Boy---if TIGHAR could only find the plane. Sorry----looks like the searh area just got larger.
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Why did the crew not transmit where they were ? It was easy to find the coordinates from observations of sun , stars and planets .
A head injury could prevent from Fred being able to star gaze and AFAIK Earhart did not know how to use a sextent.
LTM,
Don
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the mystery deepens. When Ric and TIGHAR solve all of this, it will be one of the most amazing stories of our lifetimes.
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Admittedly, I should have been more precise about "a few days", however, it isn't possible to say precisely how long he lived.
I don't remember seeing a date on Betty's notebook telling us just exactly when the transmission she heard took place. Was it on 7/4 or 7/5 or 7/6? Probably not on 7/7 since that was the day of Lambrecht's flyover and he didn't see a plane or wreckage or at least he didn't say so.
If FN suffered a concussion on landing and it obviously went untreated, then who knows how long he survived? No way to be more precise, maybe it was 4 days, maybe 5. Really doesn't matter, I'm just expressing an opinion, if that is allowed.
Of course, just as mine is only an opinion :)
Another read and yes there is no date so this could be day one of the transmissions or day 4. I still beleive (speculation only as no hard evidence) that FN was not injured badly, but that dosn't account for the lack of navigational information unless these were missed in the transmissions. Betty's notes do contain numbers that could be coordinates that she may have not heard correctly or scribbled down wrong. Idle speculation, only FN and AE know the truth and they arn't speaking to anyone credible ;)
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I appologize for being hung up on the Electra. I guess my whole theory on Amelia & Fred being on Niku depends on how they got there. Logical thinking says they flew there in the Electra. My distorted way of thinking says lets find factual evidence of the plane to show that it was there. That proves that they flew it there. Whether they landed it at the Norwich City site, or along one of the shorelines to me is irrelevent if we cant show that it was there. How do we know that we have been to the moon? Evidence left behind that we have photographed. We surmise that AE & Fred were on Niku. We know that someone of European decent was there. Items found indicate that AE was there.
Maybe I have the wrong type if inquizitive mind about this. Anything is possible. A ditching in the ocean is possible. I suppose I could make the case that they were seen by some Polynesian natives in a canoe, picked up out of the ocean, and taken to the nearest land mass---Niku. If we can find the plane--or identifiable parts of it---then we show HOW they got to Niku---and that they were THERE. We can then figure out that the NC landing, or a shoreline landing, or any of several other alternatives occured. Ok---What happens if Ric & TIGHAR find an INTACT Electra, submerged off the reef near the 7 site, photograph it and find the landing gear is UP--not extended==like one would think of doing for a ditching? With out a landing, gear down, you would NOT be able to run the engine to recharge the battery for radio use, as has been theorised. Maybe Amelia just ran the battey down using the radio with out running the engine. So --where does that put the 'reported' radio messages--if you cant recharge the battery?
There are so many things about this mystery that intrique me. Logic says that certain things have to happen in order for a conclusion. We know they left Lae, outbound and on course for Howland.
Radio traffic during the night and early morning indicate the plane was airborne, and proceeding to Howland, but the only position report was the the 157/337 sunline report. We assume that means that they were course for Howland, but didnt make it. We theorise that they came across Niku, and landed there. That theory works if we believe the radio messages post disappearence, and they could use the radio.
Something else puzzles me---Betty writes that she heard AE's voice and something like 'Norwich City". I'm wonder why other radios in the pacific alot closer didnt hear anything. Canton Island, Naru, the Itasca, the Japaneese, anyone. Granted, they would have to know the frequency she was using----but with the flight being so well publicised, I would think that alot of people would have been listening for anything. We know the Coast Guard in San Francisco and Hawaii were, and I suspect some ships, and maybe even Pan Am were also.
Someone tell me I'm crazy!
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My main thrust was that Mables message was a fake and that Betty was only guessing that the 'man was hurt'.
Whoa there...I can agree with you that she may have had a bit of a cloudy memory, but what leads you too your conclusion that it was a fake...
Someone tell me I'm crazy!
Your wish is my command...You're crazy! ;D :D ;D
LTM,
Don
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thought so!
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Tom
I don't know what the range of their radio was when sending from ground level, but the messages heard at a distance were probably due to "bounce" or "skip" off of the ionosphere.
As far as the Itasca is concerned , it was over 400 miles away steaming aroun d the NW quadrant "searching" and influencing the later Navy "searchers" as to where to concentrate their "search".
In a previous post I dated the aerial "search"of Gardner. as 7/7/37, sorry it was 7/9/37. my bad
Not crazy, many unanswered questions, and personally I think that TIGHAR is doing a great job seeking the answers. I really love a good mystery. 8)
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My main thrust was that Mables message was a fake and that Betty was only guessing that the 'man was hurt'.
Whoa there...I can agree with you that she may have had a bit of a cloudy memory, but what leads you too your conclusion that it was a fake...
Fake may be a strong word but my impression was from Rics book "Ric then talks about the apparent radio message picked up by Mabel Larremore – Amarillo Texas where Amelia mentions that the plane is down and that her navigator has a serious injury. Rics assessment is that it is rare but far from impossible for the message to be real but Mabel’s recollection could be clouded over time."
Someone tell me I'm crazy!
Your wish is my command...You're crazy! ;D :D ;D
LTM,
Don
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The last thing I see FN saying in Betty's notes was "I can't make it" followed by some things by AE and then an opinion of Betty's that he (FN) was out ...
What led Betty to come to that conclusion?
We'll never know unless/until the plane is found and/pr the bones are found and analyzed.
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The last thing I see FN saying in Betty's notes was "I can't make it" followed by some things by AE and then an opinion of Betty's that he (FN) was out ...
What led Betty to come to that conclusion?
We'll never know unless/until the plane is found and/pr the bones are found and analyzed.
are you here He had got out and she was getting ready to go too
3 lines later but who knows :)
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In "Betty´s Notes" the figure "3" appears repeatedly . Did you know that fraudulent accountants are by controllers caught , by dividing their concoction sums by the figure 9 and see if the outcome is even , or odd ? Frauds possess the tendency to use a same figure to fill up their omissions .
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In "Betty´s Notes" the figure "3" appears repeatedly . Did you know that fraudulent accountants are by controllers caught , by dividing their concoction sums by the figure 9 and see if the outcome is even , or odd ? Frauds possess the tendency to use a same figure to fill up their omissions .
And your point is?
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Refresh my memory:--Ric and Co. have found artifacts believed to be from Amelia, but other than the sextant box, have they found anything attributed to Fred? If not, maybe the theory that he did NOT make it out of the plane-as in his injuries rendered him incompacitated--are now factual, and he was left in the Electra. Somewhat as a crude burial at sea. Not to be morbid, but here again, I believe finding the Electra -or parts of it-- shines a new light on this adventure.
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Refresh my memory:--Ric and Co. have found artifacts believed to be from Amelia, but other than the sextant box, have they found anything attributed to Fred? If not, maybe the theory that he did NOT make it out of the plane-as in his injuries rendered him incompacitated--are now factual, and he was left in the Electra. Somewhat as a crude burial at sea. Not to be morbid, but here again, I believe finding the Electra -or parts of it-- shines a new light on this adventure.
Or Fred came ashore and perished elsewhere, even after AE and left her body at the seven site but I feel we will agree to disagree for the time being though you make a very good point regards artefacts.
But maybe all he needed was a box, inverting eye piece, his shoes, a pocket knife and a swig of Benedictine now and again :)
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And your point is?
Maybe its just me, but I can't make heads nor tails out of what the statement itself is supposed to be saying...
LTM,
Don
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We'll, I for one wasnt implying that anyone said anything. I started this thread after reseacrching Ric's landing theory, which, by the way, is excellant. I tried to put myself in their position at the end of the flight, as to what I would do, or not do. I think we all believe that the Electra is submerged just off the reef. If found, that would answer and enormous amount of questions, while opening up an enormous amount of others.
It was not my intent to start any infighting amongst the members; all of you which I have alot of respect for. My intent was to stimulate some thinking by those of you that are ALOT smarter than I am about these things. We can all play Monday morning quarterback, and second guess why things were, or weren't done. Quite contrary to my intent.
Ric and TIGHAR have put a tremendous amount of effort into solving this mystery. As I recall, this effort started with a theory. It may not end with the solution that we think, but the amount of evidence, and research will be the template for other generations to come. TOGETHER, we can ALL contibute to the cause, in our own way. Financial, theoretical, technical, however we can, we have all made this forum, and the search for Amelia better.
From a personal note----as a young boy, I can remember reading about her in a book by a certain CBS news reporter in the mid 60's. I can recall talking with my parents about the goings on in 1937 at the time frame around the disapperance. The search that took place, vs. the one that didnt, etc. It wasnt until a few years ago that Ric and TIGHAR perked my interest in Amelia again. This story has passed through a couple of generations now, and hopefully we will have the entire true story of what happened on that morning in July, 1937. Its a story that I hope to be able to pass on to my grandkids. It isn't necessarily about the answer to a 74 year old mystery. It's about setting a goal and working towards a conclusion. Ric and TIGHAR have reaffimed that.
So, If I've offended anyone with my crazy ideas about finding the Electra, or parts of it, I appologise. For me, its a means to an end. Thank you Ric!
Tom Swearengen
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And your point is?
Maybe its just me, but I can't make heads nor tails out of what the statement itself is supposed to be saying...
LTM,
Don
The simple check on whether books have been "cooked" that Mr. van Asten describes has a more robust numerical investigative companion that's used to discern the presence of made-up numbers. This more sophisticated method is called Benford's Law (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford's_law). (Don't click on the link if anything involving logarithms makes you queasy. ;) )
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No ones offended me, I enjoy the debate and exchange of views. Re 'your point is' I was after validation of Mr Van Astens statement which Bruce has provided.
Bruce! Thanks for the warning I WILL NOT be following that link ;)
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This more sophisticated method is called Benford's Law. (Don't click on the link if anything involving logarithms makes you queasy.)
Thanx. Now I remember why I am not a math major. Should of followed your advice as I am now quite queasy! ???
LTM,
Don
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I've re-reading alot of the documents that Tighar has available for us. I have to admit that the western reef flat would make a good landing site. Ive tried to find the photos from the ROV's used on the expeditions, and havent found them. I do remember something about seeing a cable , or a leader hung on the reef. I also remember that a side scan sonar was lost on one of the early expeditions in the general area. Have those pictures been posted? I understand that the depth isnt anywhere close to the bottom, where we presume the Electra is. Can I assume the the ocean bottom near the reef slope is sandy and flat, or do we think it is rough and jagged---like the reef? Seeing the ROV pictures probably wont prove anything other than its a reef, but interesting anyway.
Ric-----sincerely--I think you have the answers. Maybe by my crazy thoughts and assumptions, we can stumble on the pieces of the Electra on the bottom.
Tom
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Something else puzzles me---Betty writes that she heard AE's voice and something like 'Norwich City". I'm wonder why other radios in the pacific alot closer didnt hear anything. Canton Island, Naru, the Itasca, the Japaneese, anyone. Granted, they would have to know the frequency she was using----but with the flight being so well publicised, I would think that alot of people would have been listening for anything. We know the Coast Guard in San Francisco and Hawaii were, and I suspect some ships, and maybe even Pan Am were also.
Someone tell me I'm crazy!
You're not crazy. You just need to read my book. Other people were listening and and other people did hear her.
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... You just need to read my book. Other people were listening and and other people did hear her.
Ric's book, of course, is Finding Amelia (http://tighar.org/wiki/FA).
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I was wondering if there are plans to search around in other parts of the island with an ROV if the Electra isnt where we expect to find it? I know its a long way around the whole island but I assume that alternate sites would be in any future search plan wouldn't it?
Brad
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I would hope so, but it surely depends on finances, and weather. I would think that being able to see deeper would be a big help. I guess Ric has this under control.
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I guess Ric has this under control.
CONTROL??? LOL Yes, we'd love to be able to search deeper, farther from shore and all the way around the island if necessary but - as you say - it's a matter of funding. In the end, we'll do what we can afford to do - as we have always done. We're still looking for the big sponsor who can make it happen.
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LOL----Ric, you do have things under control. Maybe some of us could help to find those multiple sponsors, that wish to help, not hinder, the great work you and Tighar have done. All we have to do is ask. Hell----I'll start----I'm used to rejection!!!
Tom