TIGHAR

Amelia Earhart Search Forum => Alternatives to the Niku Hypothesis => Topic started by: Sheila Shigley on December 20, 2010, 10:55:31 AM

Title: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Sheila Shigley on December 20, 2010, 10:55:31 AM
I don't believe the theories of AE's possible government surveillance flight duties automatically imply capture by the Japanese, so I took the liberty of starting this thread - hope that's okay.

One possible witness to government involvement is a Mr. Wayne Green of New Hampshire, who states in a blog post marked 7/11/07 (http://www.waynegreen.com/wayne/news-archive_2007.html):

"Back in 1928-1930, when my dad was the designer and manager of Philadelphia’s Central Airport, Amelia kept her Lockeed [sic] Orion there [in a 1/15/10 post (http://www.waynegreen.com/wayne/news.html) he states it could have been a Vega]. I used to climb into the cockpit and pretend to fly it. And dad had her out to our house in Pennsauken (NJ) for dinner several times. She and Tommy Luddington owned Luddington Airlines, America’s first airline. I still remember being on the inaugural flight between Philadelphia and Newark in 1928. In 1936 Bob Wemple, a good friend of my dad’s and Amelia's chief mechanic, came out to dinner at our house and explained that he had just outfitted her Lockheed with larger engines and extra gas tanks so she could, on her around-the-world flight make the hop from Lae, New Guinea, to Howland Island by way of Truk Island so she could take spy pictures of the Japanese installation there for President Roosevelt, who had earlier been the Secretary of the Navy. The Navy wanted to know what the Japanese were doing there.  With the more powerful engines she would be able to make the trip to Howland Island via Truk in about the same time as she would have been able to do it flying direct with her standard engines. Bob said these pictures were the whole reason for her flight."

Mr. Moleski proposed digging into the following questions:

Was his father really designer and manager of Philadelphia’s Central Airport?

Did AE and Tommy Luddington own Luddington Airlines, America’s first airline?

Was Green really on the inaugural flight between Philadelphia and Newark in 1928?

Was Bob Wemple really Amelia's chief mechanic?

Was AE's Vega, in fact, at the airport as he claims it was? 


Off to the races!

Sheila
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Sheila Shigley on December 20, 2010, 10:57:34 AM
From the Smithsonian (http://www.nasm.si.edu/research/aero/women_aviators/amelia_earhart.htm):

"Earhart served as a partner in the Transcontinental Air Transport and Ludington airlines..."
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Sheila Shigley on December 20, 2010, 11:02:50 AM
Note:  Green misspells Ludington as Luddington
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Sheila Shigley on December 20, 2010, 11:14:06 AM
Not surprisingly, an early reference (http://books.google.com/books?id=tcmcnhwOYSkC&lpg=PA419&ots=9gwTssWnti&dq=%22adviser%20for%20the%20ludington%20air%20lines%22&pg=PA419#v=onepage&q=%22adviser%20for%20the%20ludington%20air%20lines%22&f=false) to Ludington Air Lines includes a reference to G. P. Putnam.  For a bit of background, the US government was at odds with independent air service providers regarding who would control the soon-to-be-lucrative air mail business:

"...E.W. Savage, adviser for Ludington Air Lines...has set up an organization including G.P. Putnam, New York Publisher, and Captain J. J. Reiley, public-relations counsel, who handled the details of the Byrd Antarctic Expedition, which organization offers its services to member [air] lines."

Hope this isn't too off-topic; mainly trying to establish the relationship Wayne Green states his family had with Earhart's.
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Sheila Shigley on December 20, 2010, 11:36:49 AM
Who was Bob Wemple, named by Green as "Earhart's chief mechanic?"

Haven't linked a Wemple to Earhart thus far  However the morning--er, afternoon--is young, and an obituary (http://www.tributes.com/show/Robert-Wemple-88757998) turns up of a Navy flight mechanic (PBY-5A patrol bomber, 1943-1945) Robert Olson Wemple, who passed away this June at the age of 90.

(http://www.leaderherald.com/photos/news/md/523473_1.jpg)


Of course the "Bob" in Betty's notebook is giving me goosebumps.  I'll return that to my "cockamamy theories not to be mentioned twice" box for now.  Especially as this Robert Olson Wemple would only have been 16 in 1936, the year Green names him as "chief mechanic."

Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Tom Swearengen on December 20, 2010, 11:57:25 AM
Ok---IF she were on a govt mission to overfly the Marshalls, including Truk, we all agree that she would have had to be making nearly 200 mph ground speed to arrive near Howland at about 8-8:30 am, given the flight time for the original course. I do agree that she would not have been able to see much from the altitude she was flying. She would have to fly at about 17.5 degrees from Lae to hit Truk, then 100-105 degrees from Truk to Howland. Total trip of about 3000 miles. I guess my question would be, did the radio station on Nauru have a bearing on her radio signals that she supposedly sent during the night? If so, that direction would tell us whether she was north of Nauru, to overfly the Marshalls, or south, for the direct course to Howland. I havent seen any references to this at all. This occured to me by looking at the sun line reference 157-337, which seemed to indicate a SSE flight instead of a ENE flight direct to Howland. maybe some of our navigator or radio friends can find this out.
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Martin X. Moleski, SJ on December 20, 2010, 12:02:37 PM
Who was Bob Wemple, named by Green as "Earhart's chief mechanic?"

Haven't linked a Wemple to Earhart thus far  However the morning--er, afternoon--is young, and an obituary (http://www.tributes.com/show/Robert-Wemple-88757998) turns up of a Navy flight mechanic (PBY-5A patrol bomber, 1943-1945) Robert Olson Wemple, who passed away this June at the age of 90.

(http://www.leaderherald.com/photos/news/md/523473_1.jpg)

Age 90 in 2010 suggests a birth year of 1920, I think. 

That would make him 16 years old in 1936, if I've done the math correctly.

Probably too young to be a "chief mechanic" for anything.  But he might have been a son of one of her mechanics.

Quote
Of course the "Bob" in Betty's notebook is giving me goosebumps.  I'll return that to my "cockamamy theories not to be mentioned twice" box for now.

The Electra  (http://tighar.org/wiki/Electra)was constructed (and reconstructed) in Burbank, California, on the west coast, not anywhere near Wemple would have met the Greens.  His name does not appear in Finding Amelia (http://tighar.org/wiki/FA) nor anywhere on TIGHAR's website. (http://tighar.org/news/help/82-how-do-i-search-tigharorg)  The original radio equipment (http://tighar.org/wiki/Radio_equipment_on_NR16020#Original_radio_system_designed_and_installed_by_W.C._Tinus) was installed at the Newark Airport, New Jersey in February, 1937.  That would have been Wemple's only opportunity to see the airframe up close and personal.  I believe that there is a fairly complete documentation of the state of the aircraft's engines and structures from then on, although I do not have the photographs at my fingertips, arranged in chronological order.

Here is one that shows (to those who have eyes to see--I'm not one of them) that the aircraft as configured for the first round-the-world attempt (http://tighar.org/wiki/Earhart_Project#First_attempt--March_17-20.2C_1937) was fitted with Pratt and Whitney's 550 h.p. Wasp S3H1 radial engines.

(http://tighar.org/aw/mediawiki/images/thumb/2/25/Luke_Field_March_20%2C_1937_Hawaii_Aviation.jpg/800px-Luke_Field_March_20%2C_1937_Hawaii_Aviation.jpg)

AE did not plan to crash at Luke Field--far from it!  There was no thought of a second attempt until after the first one failed so miserably.
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Sheila Shigley on December 20, 2010, 01:12:08 PM
Turns out (more-than-you'd-ever-want-to-know-about) Central Airport (http://www.dvrbs.com/camden/CentralAirport.htm) in Philadelphia was technically in NJ, though it served as Philadelphia's as well.

(http://www.dvrbs.com/camden/CentralAirport/Ludington-053131.jpg)

Note name of airline.

Finally--and yes, I should have been at work 6 hours ago but alas--a bonafide connection between the Greens and Ludingtons (http://www.fi.edu/learn/case-files/sikorsky/file.html):

Contents of CSA #2942

Case File of Igor Sikorsky
Committee on Science and the Arts


Letter from George A. Hoadley, to C.T. Ludington, Requesting information on experience with the Sikorsky automatic control device, 8/24/1931

Letter from George A. Hoadley, to W. Sanger Green, Advising of the use of adjustable stabilizers on non-Stinson motors and availability of an automatic pilot from Guardian Aerial Corp, 9/1/1931

Letter from W. Sanger Green, to George A. Hoadley, Annotated copy of Hoadley letter stating Guardian Aerial device is not being used by American Airlines, 9/2/1931

Letter from CSA Secretary, to W. Sanger Green, Acknowledging receipt of information on the availability of the Guardian Aerial control device, 9/2/1931


W. Sanger Green is our Wayne Green's father, according to Wayne's 9/14/07 (http://www.waynegreen.com/wayne/news-archive_2007.html) blog entry.

Doesn't really prove Ludington knew Green, but does establish at least that they were connected to the same people and were both being consulted on their knowledge of automatic aircraft controls.




Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Don Dollinger on December 20, 2010, 01:21:51 PM
FWIW:  I read somewhere that a friend of Amelia's said that she was a very passive person and the thought that she would accept a spy mission is totally absurd.  Unfortunately though, unlike Marty I do not have a veritable file cabinet in my brain where I can readily point to a link where I read that little gem.  Now of cousrse that is someone elses opinion of Amelia and I have had friends do things that anyone who knew them would have sworn that the person was not capable of doing such a thing until they in fact did do such a thing.

Just thought I would throw that out there.

LTM

Don
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Sheila Shigley on December 20, 2010, 01:50:25 PM
Here's a reference to Green's position as op manager of Central Airport - see the Google snippet free, but to view PDF will have to pay:

Chem. Eng. News, 1930, 8 (3), pp 8–10
Publication Date: February 1930
Copyright © 1930 American Chemical Society

Local Sections
by P Meetings - 1930

Sanger Green, operation manager of the Central Airport,. Camden, N. J., outlined to the dinner group the development and...
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Sheila Shigley on December 20, 2010, 03:45:52 PM
So it does appear thus far that:

1) Wayne Green is the son of W. Sanger Green
2) W. Sanger Green was manager of Philadelphia's Central Airport (located in Camden, NJ)
3) Earhart, Putnam, the Ludingtons, and the Greens are connected in the same time frame (1930s) to Ludington Air Lines, Philadelphia Central Airport, and other common projects in the field of aviation and aircraft mechanics

I'm going to skip past the inaugural flight question because--well, the Bob Wemple thing is just more interesting, lol.  As is searching for lucky snapshots of AE's Vega at Central Airport.  But I'll keep any eye open for child passengers on Ludington flights nonetheless.


Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Ric Gillespie on December 21, 2010, 07:53:35 AM
Earhart's chief mechanic at the time of both the first and second world flight attempts was Ruckins D."Bo" McKneeley.  He's in many photos and he flew with AE, FN, and GP as far as Miami on the first unannounced legs of the second attempt.  I talked to Bo on the phone several years ago shortly before his death.
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Tom Swearengen on December 21, 2010, 08:34:10 AM
Marty was nice enough to sent me the link of the in-flight radio transcripts. For the spy theorists, take a look at the transcripts. GMT 0519 7.35S/150.7E--on course for Howland, south of New Brittan. GMT 0718 4.33s/159.7E near Nukumanu Island, also on course. GMT1030, Nauru report "ship in sight", but no position report. A Capt. Johnson near Tabituea Island, says natives report of a high flying airplane. Thats at 1.21S/174.48E, again on course to Howland.
There isnt anyway possible that AE flew the Electra to Truk and the Marshalls, and these reported positions being correct. All of these positions would have to have been "fabricated", and that just does not seem likely. This flight path is about 1000 miles SOUTH of the Marshalls. Given the speed of the Electra, the fuel on board, and more importantly the times and coordinates posted, she could not have been in 2 places at the same time, 1000 miles apart. If the reports were fabricated, she would have arrived over Truk near dusk, and at 8000 feet, what was she going to see? Probably nothing that she would recognize, like gun emplacements. So, unless she had alot of extra fuel, and jet engines on the Electra, my personal belief is that the Marshalls overflight theory has been disproven. Any thoughts?
Tom
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Martin X. Moleski, SJ on December 21, 2010, 10:19:42 AM
Marty was nice enough to sent me the link of the in-flight radio transcripts.

It's not so much "the" link as a link to a timeline of transmissions, (http://tighar.org/wiki/Transmission_timeline) based on other TIGHAR documents.  Corrections and amendments much appreciated!

Quote
For the spy theorists, take a look at the transcripts. GMT 0519 7.35S/150.7E--on course for Howland, south of New Brittan. GMT 0718 4.33s/159.7E near Nukumanu Island, also on course. GMT1030, Nauru report "ship in sight", but no position report. A Capt. Johnson near Tabituea Island, says natives reported hearing a high flying airplane. That's at 1.21S/174.48E, again on course to Howland.

There isn't any way possible that AE flew the Electra to Truk and the Marshalls, and these reported positions being correct. All of these positions would have to have been "fabricated", and that just does not seem likely. This flight path is about 1000 miles SOUTH of the Marshalls. Given the speed of the Electra, the fuel on board, and more importantly the times and coordinates posted, she could not have been in 2 places at the same time, 1000 miles apart. If the reports were fabricated, she would have arrived over Truk near dusk, and at 8000 feet, what was she going to see? Probably nothing that she would recognize, like gun emplacements. So, unless she had a lot of extra fuel, and jet engines on the Electra, my personal belief is that the Marshalls overflight theory has been disproven. Any thoughts?

Conspiracy theorist, would (in my view!) of course, equip the aircraft with a magic radio to go along with the magic engines and fuel supply, so that the reported counterfeit position call would be heard on Nauru and so that the aircraft could both spy before dusk, then get back to Howland when a "normal" 10E would be expected to arrive.  They would probably also supply a military aircraft to simulate AE's flight over the natives.  All it requires is a deeper and more technically excellent conspiracy.   :P

To my eye, you've found a silver bullet to slay the conspiracy vampire.  I hadn't thought of using the report of the natives as a way of nailing the "Japanese spy" theory.  Well done!
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Tom Swearengen on December 21, 2010, 10:50:42 AM
I really wasnt thinking of the natives report, as much as the radioed position reports. Assuming that the natives knew what an airplane was ( I mean, we are talking about the south pacific, before WWII), I think that we can take 3 positions, and draw a definate conclusion as to AE's route to Howland.
Funny thing though, What about all those people in the Marshalls and on Saipan that 'saw" her and Fred? Might they be right too?
Another mystery wrapped in another mystery!
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Ric Gillespie on December 21, 2010, 11:10:32 AM
Most of the stories about people in the Marshalls and on Saipan seeing AE and FN are about people who saw a white woman and man who were later assumed to have been AE and FN.  In the years immediately prior to the outbreak of war in the Pacific there was no shortage of white missionary couples (husband/wife or often brother/sister) who were rounded up and done in by the Japanese.
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Tom Swearengen on December 21, 2010, 11:30:06 AM
I hadnt considered that fact. It did seem very far-fetched, that They were picked up by the Japaneese, and moved around the Marshalls, and finally ending up on Saipan.
So---we have concluded that they did not fly to Truk in the Electra-- so we need to find the Electra, or what is identifiable, at NIKU.
Tom
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Sheila Shigley on December 21, 2010, 11:51:34 AM
For what it's worth, I don't presume anything so specific as a definite overflight of a specific island at a specific time; rather, the looser concept that AE and FN may have been asked to collect what data they could, and may or may not have been given a few pieces of extra equipment to that end.

In July of 1937, information on the Japanese presence on Truk was deemed both hugely important and hugely lacking.  The US was determined--in fact, it's not a stretch to say desperate--to gain knowledge that could in any way, shape or form predict who would end up in control of China (the Kuomintang, communists, or Japanese).  

The Sino-Japanese war broke out July 7, 1937. I find it inconceivable that an American flight coming anywhere near Truk would not at least raise the question in of whether or not to task it for surveillance.  It doesn't mean AE was tasked, in the end, nor even that if she had been tasked, she chose to follow through with the idea.  Or due to weather/timing, was able to, even if she'd meant to.

While American agencies differed on their attitude toward "spying," in 1937, this "spying" was in fact often just a simple matter of keeping eyes and ears open in service of the nation, something many civilians were asked to do (Roosevelt in fact had a penchant for tasking civilians, lol--a practice which China today uses to a fault).

I realize I've thrown around a lot of opinion here - have to run into the studio but will post some related links when I get back.

Never a dull moment!
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Sheila Shigley on December 21, 2010, 12:08:21 PM
Well..."inconceivable" is a strong word.  Anything is conceivable. 
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Ric Gillespie on December 21, 2010, 12:30:49 PM
I find it inconceivable that an American flight coming anywhere near Truk would not at least raise the question in of whether or not to task it for surveillance.

Perhaps, but Earhart was not planning to be anywhere near Truk.  The closest point on her route from Lae to Howland was 800 miles from Truk.

While American agencies differed on their attitude toward "spying," in 1937, this "spying" was in fact often just a simple matter of keeping eyes and ears open in service of the nation, something many civilians were asked to do (Roosevelt in fact had a penchant for tasking civilians, lol--a practice which China today uses to a fault).

Unless Washington was worried about the British there was nothing for her keep her eyes and ears open for.
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Martin X. Moleski, SJ on December 21, 2010, 12:36:12 PM
I really wasn't thinking of the natives' report, as much as the radioed position reports. Assuming that the natives knew what an airplane was (I mean, we are talking about the south pacific, before WWII), I think that we can take 3 positions, and draw a definite conclusion as to AE's route to Howland.

One nail in the coffin is the physics of radio transmissions on 3105 kcs: to counterfeit a position reception at Nauru on this frequency at that time of night that sounded like a nearby transmission, NR16020 would have to be carrying a much better antenna and a much more powerful radio, even if the ionospheric conditions might have made the transmission possible.  But a signal that strong and clear would also probably have been heard by other stations listening to 3105.  Of course, there are directional antennas; all the conspiracy theorists have to do is pack one of those into the Electra when no one is looking.

For me, the other nail is the report by the natives.  They may not have known what an airplane was.  We don't have transcripts of what they said in their own language nor do we know how familiar they may have been with airplanes.  But a European who was talking with them might legitimately interpret their claim to have heard engines overhead as necessarily being attached to an airplane and may have supplied a term that the natives lacked.

Quote
Funny thing though, What about all those people in the Marshalls and on Saipan that 'saw" her and Fred? Might they be right too?
Another mystery wrapped in another mystery!

Testimony given by witnesses has to be sifted using criteria of possibility, plausibility, and credibility.  I'm inclined to set a low threshold on hearing an airplane overhead.  It is not rocket science.  All it takes is good ears and being in the right place at the right time.  Criminal lawyers and law enforcement officers know very well how unreliable eyewitness testimony can be when it is a matter of picking a suspect out of a lineup.  That requires a great deal more skill.  Logically, as the case stands now, I concede that it is possible that someone may have seen AE in captivity--strange things do happen.  I don't find the stories plausible or the witnesses credible on other grounds.

Just because I'm willing to credit the report ascribed to the natives of hearing the sound of engines passing overhead it does not follow that I must credit all other native testimony about other events.
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Martin X. Moleski, SJ on December 21, 2010, 12:41:41 PM
In July of 1937, information on the Japanese presence on Truk was deemed both hugely important and hugely lacking.  The US was determined--in fact, it's not a stretch to say desperate--to gain knowledge that could in any way, shape or form predict who would end up in control of China (the Kuomintang, communists, or Japanese).  

What evidence do you have from primary sources for this assertion?

By "primary source," I mean documents written at the time period under consideration by those who possessed those concerns.

Quote
The Sino-Japanese war broke out July 7, 1937. I find it inconceivable that an American flight coming anywhere near Truk would not at least raise the question in of whether or not to task it for surveillance.

Truk is a long way from the Korean peninsula.  I doubt very much that the Chinese, who were suffering huge casualties on land at the hands of the Japanese, would have worried much about Japan's navy operations out in the Pacific.
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Tom Swearengen on December 21, 2010, 01:19:08 PM
Truk is a long way from her Howland route, according to the position reports. 5 hours (+-) at 200 mph. NO doubt in my mind that Truk was important, and doing some recon would have been a help, but we are talking about 1937, 4 years before Pearl Harbor, and about 6 years before the battle of Tarawa. I'm certain that Japan did alot of fortifying in 6 years. I'm not saying that AE didnt overfly Truk and the Marshalls, but the radio evidence seems to dispell that.
If the DNA evidence is positive on the bones on NIKU, then her being on Saipan, or other locations in the Marshalls is dispelled too.
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Tom Swearengen on December 21, 2010, 01:30:50 PM
Jeff-- I've thought about your Gardner/Japaneese capture theory since I became involved with TIGHAR. Its possible that Japan was keeping tabs on her flight, but to have a ship, or even a submarine in the Gardner area at the time of the disappearance is stretching things. But, a sub would go undetected to air and surface search teams, and in 1937, they probably would not be looking for a sub-surface contact.
so---here we go again----another theory. Ric---hope the bones have her DNA!!
Tom
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Chris Johnson on December 21, 2010, 01:33:00 PM
Tom,

nice alternative but what is the motive to go to Gardner, destroy the electra and rescure/pick up AE/FN?
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Tom Swearengen on December 21, 2010, 01:44:15 PM
chris, since she wasnt spying on Truk, I cant think of any, unless they suspected that she had some information. Dont see how, because the islands that she flew over were in the Gilberts.
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Chris Johnson on December 21, 2010, 01:55:47 PM
Not quite de bunked but another theory that dosn't hold much water

edited to say that I don't beleive that you are proposing this as a bona fida theory, just another example of where you can take the whole flight/fantasy thing.
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Tom Swearengen on December 21, 2010, 01:56:27 PM
I stand corrected!!!! Tabituea, the island the natives claimed to have seen/heard the Electra, is about 275 miles south of Tarawa---and we know that Japan had fortifications there. Even though Amelia would have been flying over at night, It "could" have attracted enough attention by the Japaneese to warrant investigation.  
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Martin X. Moleski, SJ on December 21, 2010, 03:23:12 PM
Ahem.  Well, Wemple apparently was not known to be her mechanic and MAY have never been connected; on the other hand, perhaps he was attached to the effort at some point in time, and perhaps a time later - who knows - may have wanted his own moment of notoriety.  Perhaps he took a shot at that through the 'spy thing' when he had an audience.  It would have resonated in the public fervor of the times.

Green says he overheard the conversation before the first round-the-world attempt, not after.

I don't know that there was any anti-Japanese fervor in 1936-1937 in the American public.

What makes sense to me is that he heard about the oversize engines and gas tanks (http://tighar.org/wiki/Electra) on the 10E as compared to the 10A and just speculated about a "spy mission."  It does not seem implausible to me that a child might misunderstand the tone and words used by adults at the dinner table and might, in later years, give those words more weight than they deserve.  I've done things like that myself, though not so publicly as Mr. Green.
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Sheila Shigley on December 21, 2010, 04:25:11 PM
Seems I'm always on the run when I'd rather be savoring this new-found forum, lol.  Before I skip on home, though, a huge thanks to all of you who started and have maintained this project--a phenomenal accomplishment.  The level and detail of research is not like any I've seen on this subject (or many others for that matter).  I appreciate very much your responses, and take each one very seriously.  I know many of you have been doing this a very long time, and I'm grateful for your patience.

Getting to the possible US motive(s) for intelligence-gathering in the Japanese-administered South Sea Mandate islands, I like Malcolm Muir, Jr.'s observation as a starting point:

In December 1936, when the Japanese government announced its withdrawal from the treaty structure which had constrained the world's major navies for over a decade, the Roosevelt administration faced the necessity for renewed battleship construction.  Unhappily, American intelligence on the Japanese naval rearmament was virtually nonexistent.  Here was a matter of the utmost gravity, because the basic dimensions of any new American capital ship program (i.e., the numbers and characteristics of the individual ships) should be tailored to counter the Japanese challenge, especially since the long-standing American contingency plans for a war with Japan--codenamed ORANGE--called for the United States to advance into the Western pacific and force a showdown with the Imperial fleet....Imperial officers, weighing the battleship equation in the 1930s, counted on an impenetrable curtain of secrecy to build the ships that would trump American quantity with Japanese quality.  (Rearming in a Vacuum (http://bit.ly/gXtAfg): United States Navy Intelligence and the Japanese Capital Ship Threat, 1936-1945])

While quietly proceeding with rapid advances in the size and speed of it's ships, Japan publicly crowed about its "spirit of nonmenace and nonaggression."  Radio traffic analysis provided the US plenty of frightening hints as to Japan's new program, but didn't offer Roosevelt enough proof to justify the colossal expenditures required for the US to match Japan's escalation.

So why Truk...I should add again that, while Truk looms large, I don't presume that Truk could have been the only target of interest.  I'm respectful of the distances you mentioned between AE's publicly-announced destination, and Truk.  Japan was certainly fortifying islands in addition to Truk.  

Nonetheless, Truk is very interesting for many reasons, not the least of which is that in the event of war with Japan, the US "ORANGE" plan, as it existed in July of 1937, called for the immediate seizure of Truk and Eniwetok:

From Truk, the US advance could go in any one of five directions. (Naval Institute Historical Atlas of the US Navy (http://bit.ly/hU0YVd), Symonds/Clipson)

After Japan's July 7th attack on Chinese forces, and Germany's annexation of Austria 8 months later, the US switched to a two-front plan with debate as to which parts of the "ORANGE" plan remained intact.

I include all that mainly to show how incredibly important Truk was in 1937--not just as a place to spy on Japan's naval activity, but one which required as much reconnaissance as possible in advance of potential US invasion.  I also think it's incredibly ironic that only days after AE went down, the very Navy war plan which may have encouraged an overflight of Truk, took its first of two steps toward the potential scrap heap.

None of this means she flew over Truk.  But it seems safe to suggest that in 1937, no one had more motive to collect data about Truk than Roosevelt and the US Navy.





Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Martin X. Moleski, SJ on December 21, 2010, 05:09:51 PM
Your observation of the nature of how things are heard and retold, especially by a guileless child seem spot-on to me.  ... The advantages of the L10E over former models could easily have fit that train of thought - it would have been 'Buck Rogers' stuff to a kid at the time. 

I saw a great line in a biography of St. Augustine that I've been reading this week.  Something like, "To children, everything is big."
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Sheila Shigley on December 21, 2010, 06:52:56 PM
It may in fact not be visual data the Navy was after, but signals intelligence (or both).

"Overflight" isn't necessarily as important a word as "nearflight" . . . am trying to find references to any Imperial transmitters on Truk in 1937, and why any Truk transmissions may have been sought (meaning, was the Japanese military code already broken then--I believe most forms weren't yet--and would the data therefore have been to provide more raw input for cryptanalysts; or were there unencrypted or diplomatic transmissions of interest...)

One immediate question I have is this:  would Earhart's radio equipment, in conjunction with the Itasca's, provide any unprecedented signals intelligence capability?  I'm a radio enthusiast but sadly not a good techie - - would there have been a unique benefit, in this region which likely involved sensitive Japanese transmissions, of having American receivers both in-air and at-sea simultaneously?

I did find one reference stating that the US Navy began shipboard radio intercepts in 1937.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Signals_intelligence_in_modern_history

One thing to keep in mind is that the government's involvement in AE's flight isn't in question - the Navy was already involved, the Coast Guard was already involved - it's more a question of in how many ways they were involved.

Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Martin X. Moleski, SJ on December 21, 2010, 07:14:00 PM
One immediate question I have is this:  would Earhart's radio equipment, in conjunction with the Itasca's, provide any unprecedented signals intelligence capability?

The only such purpose would be to triangulate a source.

To support the rest of your hypothesis, you have to study the recording technology available in 1937 and get it aboard the Electra before it leaves on the first round-the-world attempt.  How much would the machines weigh?  Where were they placed in the plane?  What difference would that make in the range of the aircraft?
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Ric Gillespie on December 21, 2010, 08:43:39 PM
Whatever the course of AE's own disaster, it surely cannot be denied that the Japanese element in the western Pacific was real and capable of being a menace (and an interest for us to spy on, somehow).
 

Yes it can. According to a postwar study, "How Japan Fortified the Mandated Islands" published in Unites States Naval Institute Proceedings, Vol. 81, No. 4, April 1955:

The Japanese military aviation element in the Western Pacific in 1937 consisted of -
An airfield and seaplane ramp on Saipan, Marianas (completed in 1935)
A seaplane ramp in Palau, Western Carolines (completed in 1936)
That's it.

Two airfields and a seaplane ramp on Truk were not completed until 1941.
Construction of airfields and seaplane ramps in the Marshalls didn't even begin until 1940.

The buildup that author Malcolm Muir describes in the passage quoted by Sheila is battleship construction in the home islands. The "Earhart As Spy" fraternity has long peddled the fiction that the Japanese permitted no one to enter the area around the Mandated Islands, thus creating the need for American espionage.   In 1937 the Mandates were not closed-off military installations.  They were commercial outposts for the NanYo Cho (South Seas Company). See Prof. Mark Peattie's excellent history "Nan Yo - the Rise and Fall of the Japanese in Micronesia, 1885 - 1945" (Univ. of Hawaii Press, 1988)
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Daniel Paul Cotts on December 21, 2010, 09:50:27 PM
A slight quibble with Tom who stated
Quote
Tabituea, the island the natives claimed to have seen/heard the Electra, is about 275 miles south of Tarawa---and we know that Japan had fortifications there.
Recall that in 1940 Gallagher sent the recovered bones to his next higher headquarters at Tarawa. The Japanese captured it from the British some time after that.
http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Documents/Bones_Chronology.html
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Sheila Shigley on December 21, 2010, 11:42:52 PM
Have been focusing on Navy; worth checking Army Air Corps docs to see whether ORANGE included any proposals for joint air-sea invasion and if so, what speed/weight of aircraft were proposed.  Miller has:

Thus marine planners again raised the issue of air support again in 1937.  To attain three-to-one air superiority over Truk, all 392 planes of Blue's expanding carrier wings would be needed....The planners of the mid-1930s could not solve the problem of attacking heavily defended islands beyond range of shore-based aircraft.  (War Plan Orange: The U.S. Strategy to Defeat Japan, 1897-1945 By Edward S. Miller (http://books.google.com/books?id=uZ0Bw4c8vKwC&pg=PA234&lpg=PA234&dq=orange+truk+eniwetok&source=bl&ots=N1gND0_Vj5&sig=IGOIi-ck5F6FkwzxVM0ijAaWQfM&hl=en&ei=jF0RTYj1KIWKnAeYhOi-Dg&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CBwQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=air%20corps&f=false))
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Martin X. Moleski, SJ on December 22, 2010, 03:58:07 AM
A slight quibble with Tom who stated
Quote
Tabituea, the island the natives claimed to have seen/heard the Electra, is about 275 miles south of Tarawa---and we know that Japan had fortifications there.

Recall that in 1940 Gallagher sent the recovered bones to his next higher headquarters at Tarawa. The Japanese captured it from the British some time after that.
http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Documents/Bones_Chronology.html

Gallagher didn't send the bones to Tarawa.  Dr. Walter Lindsay Isaac Verrier (http://tighar.org/wiki/Walter_Lindsay_Isaac_Verrier,_MD) intercepted the shipment on his own authority, apparently because he found the small coffin attractive.  The destination was always headquarters in Suva, Fiji.
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Tom Swearengen on December 22, 2010, 05:29:13 AM
You're right Daniel---Tarawa was siezed after Pearl Harbor.




A slight quibble with Tom who stated
Quote
Tabituea, the island the natives claimed to have seen/heard the Electra, is about 275 miles south of Tarawa---and we know that Japan had fortifications there.
Recall that in 1940 Gallagher sent the recovered bones to his next higher headquarters at Tarawa. The Japanese captured it from the British some time after that.
http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Documents/Bones_Chronology.html
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Ric Gillespie on December 22, 2010, 06:23:32 AM
Have been focusing on Navy; worth checking Army Air Corps docs to see whether ORANGE included any proposals for joint air-sea invasion and if so, what speed/weight of aircraft were proposed.
If the Air Corps had a type of aircraft in mind in 1937 for an imagined raid on Truk, it sure as heck wasn't the little Lockheed Electra regional airliner.

Miller has:

Thus marine planners again raised the issue of air support again in 1937.  To attain three-to-one air superiority over Truk, all 392 planes of Blue's expanding carrier wings would be needed....The planners of the mid-1930s could not solve the problem of attacking heavily defended islands beyond range of shore-based aircraft.  (War Plan Orange: The U.S. Strategy to Defeat Japan, 1897-1945 By Edward S. Miller (http://books.google.com/books?id=uZ0Bw4c8vKwC&pg=PA234&lpg=PA234&dq=orange+truk+eniwetok&source=bl&ots=N1gND0_Vj5&sig=IGOIi-ck5F6FkwzxVM0ijAaWQfM&hl=en&ei=jF0RTYj1KIWKnAeYhOi-Dg&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CBwQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=air%20corps&f=false))

In 1937, achieving three-to-one air superiority over an island that had no aircraft should not have been a big problem.  The numbers the War Plan Orange planners were playing with  must have been purely theoretical.

If we accept that, in 1937, the U.S. was curious about what the Japanese were doing in the Mandates, we still have zero evidence - not even the slightest suggestion - that Earhart's world flight was seen as an opportunity to satisfy that curiosity.  She was going nowhere near Japanese territory and those in the military who had had occasion to deal with Earhart in the past had a low opinion of her ability to even make it to Howland.

Unless someone can come up with primary source evidence that Earhart did anything but fly a direct route from Lae to the general vicinity of Howland Island, I think discussions of Government Surveillance Flight Theories are nothing more than baseless speculation.
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Tom Swearengen on December 22, 2010, 06:29:12 AM
I think that we've shown,by radio position reports, that she dis not fly over the mandated islands.
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Sheila Shigley on December 22, 2010, 01:56:36 PM
I think my use of "surveillance flight" paints an immediate picture of "overflight collecting photographic evidence." Had I thought a little more carefully, I would have tried to come up with something that didn't box it in so much.

Have to say one last time - I'm not interested in tying any surveillance to Japanese capture theories, nor to getting away from Niku as the landing spot.  I don't discount any particular theory; my interest, on this thread, is pursuing theories of whether or not AE and FN were given any instructions whatsoever, by any US agency or office, to report information for the purpose of furthering US military and/or intelligence knowledge.  The immediate followup question is whether or not they were given any additional equipment, to include something as "small" as an additional radio frequency to use.

I don't presume any special skills on AE's part for this theoretical effort; she spoke English, could fly a plane, and knew how to use a radio, which is well beyond the skills of many civilians who've been tasked by Uncle Sam.

But some primary evidence would now be prudent...I'll see if I can find some of the actual documents related to this concept.
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Martin X. Moleski, SJ on December 22, 2010, 04:36:56 PM
The immediate followup question is whether or not they were given any additional equipment, to include something as "small" as an additional radio frequency to use.

It was not a "small" thing to add an additional frequency to AE's radio:

From "Radio equipment on NR16020." (http://tighar.org/wiki/Radio_equipment_on_NR16020#Transmitter)  See that link to pick up the footnotes.

Design

"The Western Electric Model 13C radio transmitter was a fifty-watt output, crystal-controlled unit. The original design of this transmitter produced amplitude-modulated (A-M) voice (A3 emission) signals only. The transmitter aboard NR16020 was factory-modified to incorporate Morse code (C-W) transmission capability (A1 emission) as well.

"Model 13C was the factory designation for a three-frequency transmitter operating in the 2500-6500 KHz range. A 1939 source (Morgan) illustrates a Model 13CB, a three-frequency radio with C-W and low-frequency (325-500 KHz) capability. Earhart’s Model 13C was factory-modified to include 500 KHz operation, and was probably the prototype for this later off-the-shelf version."[3]

"AE’s rig worked from 12 volt DC power."[4]

Selecting transmission bands

"The 13C was originally designed to operate in the high-frequency (H-F) range of 2000-6500 kilohertz (KHz), on three independent channels. Each channel employed its own frequency-control crystal, and tuned circuitry in all three radio-frequency stages.

"Channel shifting was accomplished by means of a multi-gang switch to select crystals and tuned circuits for each channel. The switch was activated from a crank on a remote control head located in the cockpit, linked to the transmitter through a flexible tach-shaft resembling an automotive speedometer cable.

"All tuning adjustments were inside the transmitter cabinet and were set by a technician prior to flight. No operator-adjustable tuning controls were employed."[5]
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Martin X. Moleski, SJ on December 22, 2010, 05:33:55 PM
Agree - although by additional radio frequency use I included the possibility of additional gear altogether.  And radio mods would probably be justifiable under the circumstances, regardless (i.e. nothing else about the preparations for this flight was particularly easy, either, and it was an exceptional route which included exceptional destinations).

But some evidence is nonetheless in order!

Yes.  Name, weigh, and measure the mystery equipment.

Show when, how, and by whom it could be added in the cockpit.

Describe the antenna(s) needed for the proposed new equipment and frequencies (one size does not fit all).

Bear in mind that the fact that someone can imagine such equipment being installed is not the same thing as providing evidence that it was, in fact, installed.

If you have never personally picked up a tube-based radio, you might go somewhere where you can.  It may help you to understand the difference between radio in the 1930s and radio as we know it in 2010.



Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Bill Lloyd on December 23, 2010, 08:34:55 AM
Quote
Unless someone can come up with primary source evidence that Earhart did anything but fly a direct route from Lae to the general vicinity of Howland Island, I think discussions of Government Surveillance Flight Theories are nothing more than baseless speculation.
Agree 100%

Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Sheila Shigley on December 23, 2010, 05:51:37 PM
I would just mention again that surveillance isn't limited to visual surveillance.  Unfortunately the term often implies this in lay usage, and maybe a better choice would be "data collection," which covers radio data and doesn't therefore limit surveillance activity to, for example, an "overflight of Truk."

Visual surveillance doesn't necessarily limit the conversation to an overflight of Truk, either; war plan ORANGE named multiple islands in the region as possible forward areas.  We have to keep in mind that the function of the Mandate islands (as ORANGE saw it) was to serve as the launchpad primarily for the Philippines, and secondarily for other destinations contingent on Japanese movements.  The US (or rather, ORANGE supporters, which numbered many) believed at the time that in the event of war, supporting the native defenses on the Philippines was the best chance of holding back the Japanese until the full might of the American war machine could be unleashed.

The Navy in 1937 was an incredibly powerful force in American policy-making.  The plans as they stood then called for the Navy to be in charge of (calling the shots of) the bulk of the war effort--a reality not everyone was happy with, to be certain, but reality nonetheless.  Nowadays I think we tend to look at the various branches of the armed service as somewhat balanced in power, but this was not the case in the 1930s.
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: ken jay brookner on December 23, 2010, 06:50:37 PM
Yes, but this was an American peacetime Navy with all that embraces.  Further, there was intelligence coming back on the Japanese navy already in the form of eyewitness accounts, generally through American and British naval attachés stationed in Japan.  The main problem was that the folks at Perl and in Washington D.C. did not believe most of it.  There was racial bigotry on both sides of the Pacific.  The Americans did not believe the Japanese capable of doing what they were actually doing insofar as the aircraft and ships being built there and the Japanese believed the Americans to be quite lazy and uninterested in global affairs.  And then there was signals intelligence, but that's a whole 'nother kettle of fish.

I doubt anyone in Washington was even interested in having EA/FN gather any kind of intelligence--if it even occurred to anyone.  Most Americans at that time were asleep at the wheel.

Combined Fleet Decoded, by John Prados is good reference, as are others like A World at Arms, by Weinberg.  I did some graduate research in this area some years ago and can post a reading list if there's interest.  American intelligence gathering at that time, though staffed with some very competent people, was a bit broken at the point where the intelligence should have come together in aggregate for the "big picture."  Army Intelligence competed with Naval Intelligence, they didn't share much info between them and duplicated a lot of effort.  The rivalry was so bad that prior to our entry into the war one service would brief FDR on even numbered days and the other on odd.  Difficult to imagine...

kenb

Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Walter Runck on February 08, 2011, 11:01:05 AM
The value of this flight to the US Government in general and the Navy in particular was realized before she ever took off.  By giving Roosevelt a domestic and internationally acceptable excuse for inhabiting Howland and building an airfield there, it strengthened the territorial claim and the validity of trans-Pacific aviation, which could provide cover for future surveillance work if necessary.  Remember, we only had a few islands in the Northern Pacific at the time; the rest were held by the Japanese. 

Suppose someone floated the idea of having her take a few pictures of Truk or intercept radio communications en route.  You have to believe that they thought they/she could:

1.  Convince her to become a spy.  A civilian engaged in military espionage.  Internationally recognized as a capital crime.
2.  Equip the plane to bring back something worthwhile.
3.  Train her and FN to use the equipment.
4.  Extend and complicate a flight plan already on the ragged edge of plausability.
5.  Allow the flight to proceed without a comm plan that would coordinate frequencies and schedules.
6.  Execute the mission without getting caught.
7.  Return to US territory safely.
8.  Keep it secret.

If they wanted to try this on the first attempt, it meant also having the additional crew in on the deal; Manning and Mantz survived the flights with no later indication of any espionage involvement.

If they wanted to stick with the idea after the Luke Field performance, they only had a matter of weeks to retool the mission to go in the opposite direction.

None of the above things can be demonstrated to be impossible, therefore they are possible, but the idea that the administration would risk war with Japan by running those kinds of odds borders on ludicrous. 

Find the plane and check for spy cameras or recording equipment.  It shouldn't be hard to find, here was the state of the recording art less than five years before the flight (from wikipedia entry on magnetic tape.):

"On Christmas Day 1932 the British Broadcasting Corporation first used a tape recorder for their broadcasts. The device used was a Marconi-Stille recorder, a huge tape machine which used steel razor tape 3 mm wide and 0.08 mm thick. In order to reproduce the higher audio frequencies it was necessary to run the tape at 90 metres per minute past the recording and reproducing heads. This meant that the length of tape required for a half-hour programme was nearly 3 kilometres and a full reel weighed 25 kg. For safety reasons these machines would only be operated in a locked room by remote control. Due to the tape's speed, springiness and razor-like sharp edges, if the tape broke while in operation, it could unspool, fly off and cause serious injury. Besides this, the methods of recording could lead to massive data loss and poor audio quality because of their nature."

Magnetic tape was developed by BASF during the thirties, but the US didn't really get into the game until after WWII.

Of course the government had interest in the flight; they spent a bunch of money to support it.  It's just asking an awful lot with very little supporting evidence to accept that she had an intelligence tasking for this flight.
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Martin X. Moleski, SJ on February 08, 2011, 01:01:24 PM
The value of this flight to the US Government in general and the Navy in particular was realized before she ever took off.  ...

Of course the government had interest in the flight; they spent a bunch of money to support it.  It's just asking an awful lot with very little supporting evidence to accept that she had an intelligence tasking for this flight.

Great post, Walter!  Much appreciated.  I didn't realize that audio recording was so primitive in the 1930s. 
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Martin X. Moleski, SJ on March 01, 2011, 03:17:04 PM
There is a beautiful map provided in the article on the Matsungan Island aircraft wreck. (http://bougainvilletourism.blogspot.com/2011/03/bougainvilleans-warn-visitors-to-island.html)

(http://www.saipanstewart.com/earhart-001.gif)

The map was drawn by William H. Stewart, "Military Historical Cartographer."

Steward calculated the legs for a spy mission over Truk using great circle routes:

Lae to Truk: 868 nm
Truk to Jaluit: 1063 nm
Jaluit to Howland: 878 nm

Total: 2,829 nm

He calculates the direct flight path as 2,227 nm.

So the jaunt to Truk would add 600 nm to the route.

Stewart outlines various theories about AE's fate. (http://www.saipanstewart.com/essays/earhart.html)  In the end, he is fairly non-committal, although he repeats many of the Saipan anecdotes.
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Don Dollinger on March 02, 2011, 10:47:48 AM
Quote
AE, an established pacifist, deliberately undertook to reconnoiter for the U.S. gov'ment

Only problem with that is the U.S. Government would have had to have kept it a secret all these years.  Thats too much of a stretch for me...

LTM,

Don
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Gary LaPook on September 11, 2011, 01:45:44 AM
There is a beautiful map provided in the article on the Matsungan Island aircraft wreck. (http://bougainvilletourism.blogspot.com/2011/03/bougainvilleans-warn-visitors-to-island.html)

(http://www.saipanstewart.com/earhart-001.gif)

The map was drawn by William H. Stewart, "Military Historical Cartographer."

Steward calculated the legs for a spy mission over Truk using great circle routes:

Lae to Truk: 868 nm
Truk to Jaluit: 1063 nm
Jaluit to Howland: 878 nm

Total: 2,829 nm

He calculates the direct flight path as 2,227 nm.

So the jaunt to Truk would add 600 nm to the route.

Stewart outlines various theories about AE's fate. (http://www.saipanstewart.com/essays/earhart.html)  In the end, he is fairly non-committal, although he repeats many of the Saipan anecdotes.

-----------------------------------

I have put up a more detailed analysis of the flight planning and navigation of the spy flight scenarios which are in agreement with this chart but with more detail here:

https://sites.google.com/site/fredienoonan/discussions/flight-planning-aspects-relating-to-a-possible-earhart-s-spy-flight

Also see:

https://sites.google.com/site/fredienoonan/discussions/was-earhart-a-spy

gl
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: richie conroy on October 06, 2011, 04:32:14 PM
1 of the interviews av read ov the japan story i.e sapian the person said they took jewelry off the woman but amelia didnt wear any so that deffo not her logic
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: richie conroy on October 06, 2011, 04:49:37 PM
also at that time japan wud av bragged about such an event, not hide it as they were about to commence battle with america an that would av been 1 - 0 to them ?
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Monty Fowler on October 07, 2011, 09:50:14 AM
Quote
Only problem with that is the U.S. Government would have had to have kept it a secret all these years.  Thats too much of a stretch for me...

LTM,

Don

Kept it secret, or simply ... lost the files???

I know, my bad.

LTM,
Monty Fowler
TIGHAR No. 2189CER
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Don Dollinger on October 07, 2011, 10:58:42 AM
Quote
also at that time japan wud av bragged about such an event, not hide it as they were about to commence battle with america an that would av been 1 - 0 to them ?

The US was not primarily in their sights in '37 and they would've been more likely to keep it secret not flaunt it and bring international scorn and attention down on them.

As far as a way back post concerning the mechanic upgrading the plane for this "supposed" spy mission...  Having worked with military secrets for many years it would've been on a need to know basis and it is a stretch that they would reveal a "secret" mission to an aircraft mechanic.  If and this is a big if, there was any need to justify to him WHY they needed to retrofit the Electra with the bigger engines, increased fuel capacity, etc., they surely would've had a cover story to explain that.

With all the woulda, coulda, shoulda stuff that would have had to happen to make this a reality the theory is a good Oliver Stone script but in my minds eye too far of a stretch as too be considered as anything short of wishful thinking for anyone but the conspiracy theorist amongst us.

LTM,

Don
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Tom Swearengen on October 11, 2011, 10:37:25 AM
My thought about this is the US NAVY could not afford to put a number of assets in the area without attracting alot of attention. This was supposed to be a civilian flight. FDR could have ordered the Navy to put acouple of more ships out there as a 'courtesy', but he didnt.
 If the 'idea' was to get 'lost' and have the ship search fro her, then those assets would need to be alot closer than Hawaii. I dont recall the condition of the Pacific fleet in 1937, but probably not enough ship to cover the route. IF it was a government supplemented flight, wouldnt FDR have postitioned ships and other assets all along the route, incase Amelia ran into trouble? Those ships could have 'spyed' as they were moving into postion. BTW===were there any usable runways in the Gilberts she could have used incase of a inflight problem? I'm thinking not, but if there was, it would have been great insurance to have put a few support people along with fuel and medical supplies there.
Any thoughts??
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Ric Gillespie on October 12, 2011, 05:31:56 AM
There were no airfields in the Gilberts or anywhere else between New Guinea and Hawaii.  That's why the strip at Howland was built.
Earhart's relationship with the U.S. Government is well documented.  Nothing remains classified. No FOIA (Freedom of Information Act) request for information on Earhart has ever been denied.  The haphazard, totally unplanned way the U.S. Navy search for Earhart came about is also well documented. It's all in Finding Amelia (http://tighar.org/Publications/Books/findingamelia.html).
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Rich Ramsey on October 12, 2011, 02:35:30 PM
Is that a book or something? :P  JK!!!! ;D
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Sheila Shigley on October 12, 2011, 10:35:31 PM
Hi folks - I've missed you!  Congratulations to the Tighar team for all the excellent new discoveries and analysis this past year!

I continue to investigate crossovers of military and civilian activity in the region - even if only as a sidetrack that might accidentally light up something more relevant (to AE).

I whacked out this Google map today - I'm sure it's been done a million times over, but because so many island/atoll names come up when cross-referencing AE's last flight with the Navy's prep for WWII, I found it helpful and enlightening to have a visual.  Posting just in case someone else finds it useful.

The cross-reference in this case is Earl Ellis' "Advance Base Operations in Micronesia," the prescient 1923 plan that (accurately) foresaw how Micronesia would be used in a war with Japan.

"A" is Lae - had to cut it off to make room for Tarawa in the end :)

http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USMC/ref/AdvBaseOps/index.html#contents

(https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-09Yolj7yHws/TpZobn1xkeI/AAAAAAAAA4M/il1VN78oPf0/s1024/Ellis%252520Mandates%252520Plan5.JPG)


Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Chris Johnson on October 13, 2011, 04:24:08 AM

http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USMC/ref/AdvBaseOps/index.html#contents


Thanks for that, its an interesting historical read, I love his view on the differences between the 'Nordic' and 'Asian' types.  Seems those views were ignorant and contributed to some of the early setbacks in the war.

Its also interesting how the Japaness learned from their mistakes in the defence of the islands and changed tacticks.
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Martin X. Moleski, SJ on October 13, 2011, 09:10:53 AM
Hi folks - I've missed you!  Congratulations to the Tighar team for all the excellent new discoveries and analysis this past year!

Welcome back!

Quote
I whacked out this Google map today - I'm sure it's been done a million times over, but because so many island/atoll names come up when cross-referencing AE's last flight with the Navy's prep for WWII, I found it helpful and enlightening to have a visual.  Posting just in case someone else finds it useful.

It's very nice.

If you have a .kmz file of those locations, other people can play with them in Google Earth, too.  The .kmz file saves others a lot of retyping.

There is a whole thread devoted to collecting Google Earth .kmz files (http://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,391.msg4450.html#msg4450).  ::)
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Sheila Shigley on October 13, 2011, 12:17:38 PM
'K folks, my first attempt at a .kmz

All suggestions welcomed!  I haven't figured out how to make it collaborative yet.

Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Martin X. Moleski, SJ on October 13, 2011, 06:46:43 PM
'K folks, my first attempt at a .kmz

All suggestions welcomed!  I haven't figured out how to make it collaborative yet.

For reasons I do not understand, your file downloads as index.php.  And yet its contents are, in fact, the .kmz file you intended to send.

I'm uploading it with hyphens instead of spaces, along with a screen capture of the output.

Edit: There is a bug in Firefox Beta 8.0.  My version of your file also downloads as index.php.  Firefox beta testers who want to use this file should right-click the link and save the file with a .kmz extension.  Then it should open in Google Earth. 
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Martin X. Moleski, SJ on October 14, 2011, 04:13:29 AM
Downloads to my Mac now as kmz (assuming you guys must have fixed it?)

I was wrong about the location of the bug.

It's in Firefox Beta 8.0, not in SMF.

Chrome and IE work OK with the attachments.

I have learned that attachments are not visible to people who are not logged in.  Who knew?  I'll see if I can open that up for our lurkers.
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Sheila Shigley on October 18, 2011, 02:03:38 PM
Mention of another aviation-related Bob Wemple, in the Ocala Star-Banner - Aug 1, 2007, p. 6:

Bob Wemple, the city's aviation director, and Rupert Caviness of the city aviation board reported to the Ocala/Marion County Chamber of Commerce Directors on the airline service hearing before the Civil Aeronautics Authority in Washington in mid-1939.  They were enthusiastic about the possibility of getting commercial service for Ocala.  [FL]





Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Sheila Shigley on October 18, 2011, 02:27:02 PM
At this point I'm tempted to start a "who the heck was Bob Wemple??" thread, but at any rate, the U. of Wyoming's collection of papers on Roscoe Turner (award-winning aviator, 1920s-30s) contains a document on a Robert Wemple.

From the Wyoming site:

The  Roscoe Turner Papers,  1897-1972, contain valuable information  about the evolution of  the aviation industry in the United  States from 1920 to 1970.

Index of the collection gives:

Series II.  Business Endeavors, 1926-1969.
Subseries 6.  Roscoe Turner Aeronautical Corporation, 1939-1969
Box: 100  Folder: 13

WEMPLE, ROBERT                                1948


Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Sheila Shigley on October 18, 2011, 02:51:36 PM
Whoa!

Wayne Green recalls Bob Wemple being famous for marrying Miss Philadelphia in a plane over the city, and that he was a "short, sandy-haired chap with a waxed mustache and a limp."

(http://28.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lk9mr5Ix3L1qb8ugro1_500.jpg)
Robert G. Wemple, Jr. and Florence Bogar, Miss Philadelphia-1928

Note the cane!

http://valentinovamp.tumblr.com/tagged/Robert_G._Wemple_Jr.

[Edit 20 Oct '11:  this photo is reversed - thanks to Chuck Varney for correction. See "Who was Bob Wemple?" thread for corrected photos.]
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Sheila Shigley on October 18, 2011, 03:15:01 PM
Looks like Wayne Green's dad, W. Sanger Green, did indeed know Bob Wemple.

From The Daily News, Huntington, PA, Feb. 8, 1930:

Pair Wed In Plane As It Flies Over Camden

Camden, N.J., Feb 8---While flying in an airplane 2000 feet over Camden yesterday, Robert G. Wemple, Jr., of this city and Miss Florence Bogar, of Philadelphia, became man and wife. Wemple piloted the plane while the Rev. George F. Finnie, of Camden, performed the ceremony in the presence of three other persons in the plane. They were E. J. Fincke, an operator of the U.S. Weather Bureau Air Service, who was best man; Mrs. Catherine Stryker, the bride's sister, and W. Sanger Green, general manager of the Central Airport in Camden. The flight lasted fifteen minutes. The bride was Miss Philadelphia in 1928. Wemple is operation manager of Central Airport.

http://www.newspaperarchive.com/FlashViewer/FreeArticles.aspx?img=103009194

Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Sheila Shigley on October 18, 2011, 03:23:14 PM
And here he is.  In an ironic twist, it appears the "G" stands for Gardiner.

Robert Gardiner Wemple (1901 - 1955):  Born in New York, USA on 1901 to Robert Gardiner Wemple and Lillie Renner. Robert Gardiner married Florence Bager. Robert Gardiner married Patricia Dunn. Robert Gardiner married Living Cooper and had 2 children. He passed away on 9 Jan 1955 in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA.

http://tinyurl.com/3ra6qat

He attended Brooklyn Polytechnic College Brooklyn, NY. Over the years, he also attended the following schools and courses: Northeast Airlines School/CAA Standardizing Center/Advanced Aerobatics Course/Army Air Corps Basic Training Center, Randolf Field, TX/CAA Standardizing Center for Instrument & Multi-Engine Course.

Among his many pursuits in earning a livelihood, he was a barnstormer pilot, a plantation manager in Jamaica, British West Indies; Manager of the Flight Training Division, Pitcairn Aviation Inc.; Survey Pilot for Pitcairn and assisted in the design of the Pitcairn Mailwing airplane; Operation Manager, Central Airport, Camden, NJ; associated with Wood Aerial Surveys, Philadelphia; Director of Aviation, Ocala, FL; District Flight Supervisor, Florida; with CAA/Regional Principal Flight Supervisor, CAA Fort Worth, TX; Civilian Pilot Training and War Training Service flight training Schools; associated with J.M. West, Houston capitalist, in forming West Central Airlines, Inc.; Field Representative & Technical Correspondent, Air Review Publishing Company, Dallas, TX; Personal pilot for E.B. Fletcher, independent oil producer, Dallas, TX. GJW

http://tinyurl.com/3vhxpel

Note: I'm not hell-bent on proving he modded AE's plane, but his (if only casually) discussing such a thing seems within the range of possibility.
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Sheila Shigley on October 18, 2011, 03:55:01 PM
From what appears to be the newsletter of the company today known as Keystone Aerial Surveys:

Propwash, Oct. 29, 1938

(http://farm7.static.flickr.com/6179/6258365359_ca0a7b7a24_b.jpg)

http://keystoneaerialsurveys.com/propwash/PW1938-OCTOBER_29.pdf
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Don Dollinger on October 20, 2011, 10:47:58 AM
Quote
In 1936 Bob Wemple, a good friend of my dad’s and Amelia's chief mechanic, came out to dinner at our house and explained that he had just outfitted her Lockheed with larger engines and extra gas tanks so she could, on her around-the-world flight make the hop from Lae, New Guinea, to Howland Island by way of Truk Island so she could take spy pictures of the Japanese installation there for President Roosevelt, who had earlier been the Secretary of the Navy. The Navy wanted to know what the Japanese were doing there.  With the more powerful engines she would be able to make the trip to Howland Island via Truk in about the same time as she would have been able to do it flying direct with her standard engines. Bob said these pictures were the whole reason for her flight.


A spy mission would definately be a classified mission.  Classified information would only be released to those who need it on a "need to know" basis and even then only the specific information that is needed is supplied.  In other words, very few people would know the whole story.  In its entirety the information, although classified, would specify more powerful engines needed to be installed it would not specify for what reason it needed to be accomplished, just that it had to be accomplished because that is all an aircraft mechanic needed to know.

Another thing that kinda points to the fact that it is a bunch of bunk is already he's blabbing the information to anyone who will listen at a dinner party.  At best he is labelling his good friend Amelia as a spy, at worst he is breaking the law by revealing classified information. 

The true test would be to find out if there is proof, in fact, that she had more powerful engines then what was supplied by Lockheed.  As Ric stated that this would have had to have been on the first attempt due to the date, thus is there anyway to positively identify the exact engines that were on the Electra from either documentation or photos from when she ground looped it in HI.

LTM,

Don
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Ric Gillespie on October 20, 2011, 11:06:35 AM
is there anyway to positively identify the exact engines that were on the Electra from either documentation or photos from when she ground looped it in HI.

Yes. Bureau of Air Commerce Inspection Reports both before (11-27-36) and after (5-19-37) the rebuild following the Luke Field accident list the aircraft's engines as Pratt & Whitney R1340 S3H1, serial numbers 6149 and 6150.  Those are the same engines the airplane was delivered with in July 1936.  Photos of the airplane in Lae of course don't show serial numbers but they do show that the plane still had R1340 S3H1 engines. 

Allegations that bigger engines were installed are ludicrous.  The R-1340 S3H1 was the biggest engine the airframe could carry.  It was actually almost too big.  The 10E tended to be a bit nose-heavy.

Besides, installing bigger engines - even if that was possible - might make the airplane fly a bit faster but not farther. 
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Don Dollinger on October 20, 2011, 11:12:46 AM
Quote
Besides, installing bigger engines - even if that was possible - might make the airplane fly a bit faster but not farther. 

Excellent point.

LTM,

Don
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Sheila Shigley on October 20, 2011, 03:23:24 PM

Another thing that kinda points to the fact that it is a bunch of bunk is already he's blabbing the information to anyone who will listen at a dinner party.  At best he is labelling his good friend Amelia as a spy, at worst he is breaking the law by revealing classified information.

To be fair, he may just be telling his boss--whether or not he should have been, and granted, in the presence of his boss's kid and possibly wife.  Wayne (the kid) recalls Bob "coming over for dinner" that day.  Not sure that implies a party, but I agree we can't know for sure. 

I'm also not sure that her agreeing to help her country would have been considered a shameful thing (personally, I would consider it patriotic).  If she were asked by a bad guy to spy on a good guy, I guess that could be shameful; but assisting ones own government shouldn't have been considered shameful--thoughts?

I am curious why his boss wouldn't have already known--Bob was Ops Manager at Central Airport, but W. Sanger Green was General Manager.  I guess I may have wrongly assumed that airport officials kept track of everything happening in their hangers--I supposed if private individuals rented hangers, it wasn't really the officials' business what they did as long is it didn't interfere with airport ops.  And the story doesn't actually tell us if the alleged mods took place at Central at all--Wayne Green (the kid) has said Amelia kept her plane(s) at his dad's airport; I had perhaps wrongly assumed the alleged mods took place there. 
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Don Dollinger on October 21, 2011, 10:26:08 AM
Quote
I'm also not sure that her agreeing to help her country would have been considered a shameful thing (personally, I would consider it patriotic).  If she were asked by a bad guy to spy on a good guy, I guess that could be shameful; but assisting ones own government shouldn't have been considered shameful--thoughts?

I read somewhere (believe it was the Amelia website) an article written about her by her best friend and she stated that Amelia was a pacifist.  The very reason she stated that was to refute that very notion of if she thought the spying/captured by the Japanese Theory held any water.  I would think that a pacifist would find spying objectionable and not want anything to do with it.  But I must admit that in the past I have seen friends do thing that I never thought they were capable of doing due to their morale compass.

Quote
I am curious why his boss wouldn't have already known--Bob was Ops Manager at Central Airport, but W. Sanger Green was General Manager.  I guess I may have wrongly assumed that airport officials kept track of everything happening in their hangers

That would go back to the basics of classified information.  Why would the General Manager of the Airport need that information?  He wouldn't, his duties end at managing her home airport where she maintains and stores her personal aircraft thus "he didn't have a need to know".

LTM,

Don
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Sheila Shigley on October 21, 2011, 11:26:38 AM
Well...often "spying" is an attempt to avoid war rather than start it.  I agree pacifists mightn't always see it this way.  However, Roosevelt was a friend, and Japan was supposed to be adhering to a treaty--confirming adherence to the treaty (to protect America) wouldn't necessarily have to feel like warmongering.  In fact, it could be easily sold as the best way to avoid war.

As far as Bob's likelihood of confiding in W. Sanger, they were buds and colleagues, and I'm sure it wouldn't be the first time someone has excitedly told a colleague something they were supposed to keep to themselves.

But it does help form a potential picture of the alleged scenario--i.e. Bob had been asked to participate in mods, but W. Sanger had not; Bob was made aware of it, but W. Sanger was not (until Bob told him).  It implies a closer personal/professional relationship between Bob and Amelia, than between W. Sanger and Amelia (even though she may have come over for dinner several times, according to Wayne Jr., and may have parked her planes at W. Sanger's field.)

Maybe that's not so odd, really--Ops Managers are likely to have closer contact with clients than are General Managers.

No way yet of knowing whether the mods discussion took place.  But enough of the other things Wayne Green said about Bob Wemple have checked out that I feel intrigued to keep digging.  Wemple's worth it on his own merit at this point, lol. Interesting guy.





Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Don Dollinger on October 21, 2011, 03:41:34 PM
Quote
No way yet of knowing whether the mods discussion took place.  But enough of the other things Wayne Green said about Bob Wemple have checked out that I feel intrigued to keep digging.  Wemple's worth it on his own merit at this point, lol. Interesting guy.

Wayne was a child at the time and was also not a part of the conversation and it very well could be that he took an innocous statement for something it was not.  That is not to say that he is lying, just that his understanding of what was said was not what was meant by Wemple.  As Ric has stated more powerful engines could not even be installed and the statement says "that he had just outfitted her Lockheed with larger engines and extra fuel tanks" meaning he had actually performed the mods which the photos after her ground loop show that is not the case.

LTM,

Don
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Martin X. Moleski, SJ on October 21, 2011, 04:49:00 PM
Besides, installing bigger engines - even if that was possible - might make the airplane fly a bit faster but not farther.

Bigger engines that make more power also consume more fuel.  I believe that the range of the plane would be curbed in proportion to the increase in fuel consumption.

We know from the Chater Report (http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Documents/Chater_Report.html) how much fuel was onboard for the fatal flight.

We know that that amount of fuel is what the plane was originally designed to carry.

That is pretty good documentary evidence against the claim that Wemple helped install both oversize engines and oversize tanks.
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Sheila Shigley on October 22, 2011, 08:39:57 AM
From Tighar:

In relenting, Lockheed also offered to install a newer, 550 hp version of the R1340, the S3H1 variant. Known as the 10E, Pan Am bought 3 of these heavier but more powerful Electras and another 12 were eventually sold to other customers, one of whom was Amelia Earhart. In 1937 a one-off modification of the Model 10 was built for the Army Air Corps as a pressurized, high-altitude research ship. Designated the XC-35, the airplane is currently in storage at the Smithsonian's Garber Facility in Suitland, Maryland.

I wonder if the conversation Green refers to was about Bob Wemple installing 600s (on a plane that previously had 450s)?  The "larger tanks" may have referred to the larger oil tanks.  From Tighar:

Lockheed specs show that the standard oil tank for the 10C and 10E was 8.5 gallons but an optional 11 gallon tank could be ordered. Numerous photos show that Earhart’s airplane was equipped with the larger tank.

What if the entire conversation Wayne Green recalls was about Bob performing mods we know took place on Electras, and that resulted in the configuration we know NR16020 to have used?

Probably a separate question altogether:  is there a chance the "one off" XC-35 was actually a "two off?"

What if AE and FN's route ended not being farther than planned, but higher?

[Corrected "550s" to "600s" above.]
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Martin X. Moleski, SJ on October 22, 2011, 09:25:35 AM
What if the entire conversation Wayne Green recalls was about Bob performing mods we know took place on Electras, and that resulted in the configuration we know NR16020 to have used?

Yes, I think the conversation was most likely about the difference between a 10A and a 10E Special (http://tighar.org/wiki/Electra) (bigger engines plus massive fuel tanks in place of passenger seats).

Quote
is there a chance the "one off" XC-35 was actually a "two off?"

When you are dealing in abstract possibilities, there is no limit to the number of XC-35s that you may construct in your imagination.

The real question is, "Is there any evidence that NR16020 was an XC-35?  Is there any evidence that it was not?"

The bill of sale for NR16020 is for a non-pressurized aircraft.

Quote
What if AE and FN's route ended not being farther than planned, but higher?

To what end?  Why invest in that capacity?  I'm pretty sure that you don't just add the weight, cost, and complexity of a pressurized system just for the heck of it.  And I doubt that the engines would perform well at higher altitudes without some super-charging (more weight, cost, and complexity). The Wikipedia article on the "Lockheed XC-35 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_XC-35) gives a nice overview of the differences:

"The United States Air Corps wanted the aircraft to perform high altitude research and to test the feasibility of a pressurized cabin. The Corps contracted with Lockheed Aircraft Corporation to produce the aircraft at a total cost of $112,197. The requirements called for an aircraft capable of flying at no less than 25,000 ft (7,620 m) and having an endurance of 10 hours with at least 2 hours above 25,000 ft (7,620 m). Major Carl Greene and John Younger, both structures experts who worked for the Air Corps Engineering Division at Wright Field in Ohio were responsible for the design of the pressurized cabin structure. Greene and Younger worked with Lockheed to modify a Model 10 Electra with a new fuselage consisting a circular cross section that was able to withstand up to a 10 psi differential. New, smaller windows were used to prevent a possible blowout while operating at high pressure differentials. The cabin pressurization was provided by bleeding air from the engines' turbo supercharger, the compressor outlet fed into the cabin and was controlled by the flight engineer. This system was able to maintain a cabin altitude of 12,000 ft (3,658 m) while flying at 30,000 ft (9,144 m). The fuselage was divided into two compartments, a forward pressurized compartment, and an aft unpressurized compartment. The forward compartment housed two pilots, a flight engineer, and up to two passengers. The aft compartment provided accommodations for one passenger and could only be used at low altitudes since it lacked pressurization. "The XC-35 was fitted with two Pratt & Whitney XR-1340-43 engines of 550 HP (410 kW) each compared to the two Pratt & Whitney R-985-13 engines of 450 hp (336 kW) fitted to the base Model 10 Electra. The engines featured a turbo supercharger to permit the engines to operate in the thin air at high altitudes."
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Sheila Shigley on October 22, 2011, 09:47:52 AM
Agreed, Marty, it definitely wouldn't be for the heck of it; tons of Army and civilian time and money had been invested in the XC-35's development by July 1937, and Army Air Corps announced its "first perfomance flight" four weeks post-loss.  (Van Patten, Robert E. Air Force Magazine Online, Vol.86, No.1 January 2003)
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Sheila Shigley on October 22, 2011, 09:52:52 AM
Alas, hubbie tasks me for mundane housework so I won't be able to ck back in for a bit.

Just a note to say, as always, I don't presume anything so straightforward as "Bob installed turbos for the Army Air Corps," but rather want to explore any possible joint-purpose to AE's flight, given the military and civilian excitement and money surrounding the Lockheed Model 10 at that time.  AE was a friend of Roosevelt, and both she and her husband had extensive investment in the aviation industry.  The incentive to make the flight count towards something beyond a personal flight record couldn't have been higher.
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Martin X. Moleski, SJ on October 22, 2011, 10:08:26 AM
... The incentive to make the flight count towards something beyond a personal flight record couldn't have been higher.

The payoff that we know about--for which there is contemporary documentary evidence--is the development of the airstrip on Howland Island, which strengthened U.S. claims to that island and would have "paved" the way (pun intended; you may laugh now) for more airport development in the Pacific. 

The evidence is presented in the first chapter of Finding Amelia.  The story begins here on p. 3:

"In 1935, the Bureau of Air Commerce established an American presence on three small, desolate, lagoon-less Pacific islands near the equator.

"A young bureau employee by the name of  William T. Miller was selected to head a project by which Jarvis, Baker, and Howland Islands were to be 'colonized' as the American Equatorial Islands. The colonization was to be accomplished using furloughed U.S. Army personnel assisted by young native Hawaiian graduates of  Honolulu’s Kamehameha vocational school. Five men—'one NCO, one cook, one first aid man, and two Hawaiians who could look after such matters as fishing and boating, and other miscellaneous duties'—would live on each island for nine months at a time, resupplied with food and water at three-month intervals."
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Ed Fitzpatrick on October 22, 2011, 08:15:03 PM
 ;D

New to Forum.  Very nice to have a place to go to discuss some great theories and legends’ Richard! I finally got enough courage to share a few thoughts on Amelia Earhart and try not to get out of form or Category I hope.
I too was a Naval Aviator on C-118’s (FE) During Nam. So I’m pretty familiar with the P &W’s. Our Navy Pilots are some of the best.(AS you Know)
So much talk about the Cambridge Exhaust Analyzer being thrown out early.
My guess is after flying ¾ around the globe you pretty well know how to set your Fuel Mixture and head temp. I’m pretty sure we can estimate that AE would not exceed Gross Takeoff Weight. I would say she follows instructions well. I’m sure Kelly Johnson gave her Information with the Standard Engineering “ Built-in” Safety Factors. He would have erred on the Conservative side and not take her to full Military Power. I think it’s safe to say in the Navy we cruise at 10,000 ft  most of the time at a constant RPM and Speed until we burn off fuel, then cut back. Pretty sure they had snow in Australia and she had 20kn headwinds half way from LAE with weather improving and a tail wind. She had 1200 Gallons of fuel and a T/o weight not exceeding 16,500. They were very capable of maintaining an ave. weight of 13,000 lbs. And at 200 mph and should be able to do 4000 miles conservatively , I believe Howland was about 3500 mile trip. They had flown this distance several times during their flight already. She had Auto Pilot. About 150 miles out they would start their decent to 2000’. Then almost fly a straight in Approach to BAKER Island. A 4500 foot steel runway built a year earlier. At USCG Hawaii Head quarter has all Interior info on Baker Is. This was the Deception. USCG-Itasca unloaded Supplies and Boxed Radio equipment four days earlier. See Itasca Ships Log. Baker is only 45 miles from Howland with a runway! How did this get “Overlooked”.  Ok now for the SPY mission. She had an F-1 U.S.Navy Fairchild High Altitude with Rapid Action Carl Zeiss lenses 16MM 6 Roll Aerial “Spy” Camera made in 1935,but enhanced with Eastman Kodiak “Color” Motion Picture and/or Still frame. AE was a big Camera Buff. Can you imagine flying around the world without a camera? Even the German Zep’s had Cameras in 1932. If you look at most of her “stops” they were eventually manned by the Japs and Kraut’s. But what a great cover story. So how did they get her plane back from Hawaii to the US after the first “Accident”? Easy, they took the wings and Engines off and put them in a container and shipped them back. Other than establishing a Strategic Forward Base. Why in the Hell would anyone want to land on Howland or Baker Island anyway? If it was just a leisurely 40 Day Cruise like they were telling everyone I would think Fred would have chosen his normal flying route from Guam to Wake to Midway then to Honolulu, Don’t cha think! What in hell is so important about this tiny island in the middle of nowhere? Come on Folks. Within days the US Navy Now had reason to send 9 ships and 40,000 men to investigate these two pilots. IF you check these Ships logs I’m sure you’ll will see some interesting stops. I would love to see Standard Oil’s bill to Perdue Univ for her Gas Receipts’. Well, I just had to say it. Why keep this a secret any more. I think the Truth is far more interesting. Have Fun.
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Ric Gillespie on October 22, 2011, 09:12:10 PM
I think the Truth is far more interesting.

So do I.
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Martin X. Moleski, SJ on October 22, 2011, 09:20:34 PM
;D

New to Forum. 

Welcome, Ed.  I'm glad you were able to get through.

Quote
They were very capable of maintaining an ave. weight of 13,000 lbs. And at 200 mph and should be able to do 4000 miles conservatively , I believe Howland was about 3500 mile trip.

This timeline of the second round-the-world itinerary (http://tighar.org/wiki/Timeline) says it was 2556 statute miles from Lae to Howland.

Quote
They had flown this distance several times during their flight already.

Not that I can see.  They had done 2400 statute miles to Hawaii on the first round-the-world attempt.  Lae-Howland seems to me to be the longest and most difficult leg for the second attempt. 

Quote
Then almost fly a straight in Approach to BAKER Island. A 4500 foot steel runway built a year earlier. At USCG Hawaii Head quarter has all Interior info on Baker Is. This was the Deception. USCG-Itasca unloaded Supplies and Boxed Radio equipment four days earlier. See Itasca Ships Log. Baker is only 45 miles from Howland with a runway! How did this get “Overlooked”?

Perhaps the documentation for this theory is weak?

Quote
Ok now for the SPY mission. She had an F-1 U.S. Navy Fairchild High Altitude with Rapid Action Carl Zeiss lenses 16MM 6 Roll Aerial “Spy” Camera made in 1935,but enhanced with Eastman Kodiak “Color” Motion Picture and/or Still frame. AE was a big Camera Buff. Can you imagine flying around the world without a camera? Even the German Zep’s had Cameras in 1932. If you look at most of her “stops” they were eventually manned by the Japs and Krauts. But what a great cover story. So how did they get her plane back from Hawaii to the US after the first “Accident”? Easy, they took the wings and Engines off and put them in a container and shipped them back. Other than establishing a Strategic Forward Base. Why in the Hell would anyone want to land on Howland or Baker Island anyway? If it was just a leisurely 40 Day Cruise like they were telling everyone I would think Fred would have chosen his normal flying route from Guam to Wake to Midway then to Honolulu, Don’t cha think! What in hell is so important about this tiny island in the middle of nowhere? Come on Folks. Within days the US Navy Now had reason to send 9 ships and 40,000 men to investigate these two pilots. IF you check these Ships logs I’m sure you’ll will see some interesting stops. I would love to see Standard Oil’s bill to Purdue Univ for her Gas Receipts’. Well, I just had to say it. Why keep this a secret any more. I think the Truth is far more interesting. Have Fun.

OOOOOOOooooooooooooooooooooooK.  I don't have time to point out all of the errors in this last paragraph.  It's been a long week and a long day.  Let me just say that the next ten or twelve hours of silence from me definitely does not constitute assent to the claims you have made.   ::)
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Gary LaPook on October 22, 2011, 10:33:31 PM
;D

New to Forum.  ...
Other than establishing a Strategic Forward Base. Why in the Hell would anyone want to land on Howland or Baker Island anyway? If it was just a leisurely 40 Day Cruise like they were telling everyone I would think Fred would have chosen his normal flying route from Guam to Wake to Midway then to Honolulu, Don’t cha think! What in hell is so important about this tiny island in the middle of nowhere?

-------------------------------

No I don't think since there was no runway on Midway, only a seaplane base.

gl
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Martin X. Moleski, SJ on October 23, 2011, 07:53:01 AM
... So how did they get her plane back from Hawaii to the US after the first “Accident”? Easy, they took the wings and Engines off and put them in a container and shipped them back.

Why the scare quotes around accident?  Not only are there pictures of the wreck (http://tighar.org/wiki/Luke_Field), but a very large number of witness statements (http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Documents/Luke_Field_Crash_Report/LukeFieldReport.htm) as well.

They used boxes and crates (http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Documents/Luke_Field.html), not a container, to ship the Electra back to Lockheed for repair.
Title: Re: Government Surveillance Flight Theories
Post by: Ric Gillespie on October 23, 2011, 08:19:09 AM
One of the principal aims of TIGHAR's Earhart Project is to explore and demonstrate how to figure out what is true.  It' about learning how to find information and how to evaluate information. It's about how to sort fact from fiction, reality from fantasy. It's about learning how to think.