TIGHAR

Amelia Earhart Search Forum => Alternatives to the Niku Hypothesis => Topic started by: Ashlin Orrell on April 12, 2014, 03:13:33 PM

Title: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: Ashlin Orrell on April 12, 2014, 03:13:33 PM
The Stratus Project
The Search for Amelia Earhart

For those who may be interested, we have recently launched our new project to search for Amelia Earhart - The Stratus Project. We aim to conduct a deep-ocean search in the vicinity of Howland Island, picking up where Nauticos and Waitt left off. The Project leader is the director of Titanic's Dock, Colin Cobb who some of you will know from the Washington DC conference. Colin delivered the talk on Amelia's Derry landing in 1932.

We have a unique approach to the disappearance, focusing on Fred Noonan rather than Amelia herself to solve the mystery. A guy who many of you probably know, Gary LaPook, has been onboard with our project since it began two years ago. We have kept the project under wraps for so long because we have spent the time working with Gary to develop our theory, and have also been creating everything else that goes with the project, such as website, video, theory presentation etc. We have now decided that we are ready to officially launch the project and go public with what we are doing.

Please see our website and video at www.stratusproject.com


Ashlin Orrell
Deputy Project Leader
The Stratus Project


Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: Chris Johnson on April 12, 2014, 03:25:24 PM
Well that's interesting! Certainly looks a well researched (through GLP) and funded (Colin?) project and even with the evidence that TIGHAR has found you'd put a £ ($) or two on crashed and sank.  The technology looks impressive and makes the next year or so very interesting in the AE cottage industry :)
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: Ashlin Orrell on April 12, 2014, 03:39:43 PM
Thanks Chris.

Yes Colin has funded the project from the start.
We wanted to go further than just discussing and analysing the disappearance... we decided to put our money where our mouth is and aim to get AUVs to our search area and hopefully solve the mystery.

There hasn't been anyone testing the crashed and sank theory for a number of years now since Waitt in 2009. Sadly Ted Waitt just didn't put his Remus' in the right place, despite searching such a vast area. The Waitt expedition was probably the most technologically advanced search for Amelia to date, and we aim to use similar technology.

Watch this space.
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: Chris Johnson on April 13, 2014, 02:01:41 PM
Thanks Chris.

Yes Colin has funded the project from the start.
We wanted to go further than just discussing and analysing the disappearance... we decided to put our money where our mouth is and aim to get AUVs to our search area and hopefully solve the mystery.

There hasn't been anyone testing the crashed and sank theory for a number of years now since Waitt in 2009. Sadly Ted Waitt just didn't put his Remus' in the right place, despite searching such a vast area. The Waitt expedition was probably the most technologically advanced search for Amelia to date, and we aim to use similar technology.

Watch this space.

Are you going to cover some of the same ground so to speak or is it all new 'virgin' areas?  What's the plan if you find identifiable wreckage - in fact how do you propose to identify any wreckage found as surely only a bonafida serial number will win over those who have other agendas?
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: Colin Philip Cobb on April 13, 2014, 03:15:36 PM
Hello again Chris :-)

Can't go into the search details at the moment.
If we do find wreckage in the deep ocean we are confident that the bulk of the plane will be next to it.
If you actually find the Electra I doubt it will be hard to identify.

Let's find it first, identifying it will be a nice problem to have.

Regards

Colin
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: JNev on April 14, 2014, 06:09:22 AM
Hello again Chris :-)

Can't go into the search details at the moment.
If we do find wreckage in the deep ocean we are confident that the bulk of the plane will be next to it.
If you actually find the Electra I doubt it will be hard to identify.

Let's find it first, identifying it will be a nice problem to have.

Regards

Colin

Colin,

I certainly enjoyed meeting you and seeing your presentation at the symposium in 2012.

I'm sure you will have an interesting hypothesis to test with Gary providing the navigational theory and wish you luck.  Certainly agree that there's nothing like physical evidence, and should you find it, identifying it would be a 'nice problem' to have, sure enough.

All the best -
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: Monty Fowler on April 14, 2014, 05:57:01 PM
Best of luck to your group, Colin - the fundraising will be the challenge (well we know THAT!)

Just remember, if you do find what you think is Amelia and Fred's airplane, photos alone aren't going to cut it. You're going to have to bring an identifiable piece of it to the surface and have it independently verified. Otherwise, it/s just ... photos of pieces of metal. Could be anything that came from anywhere.

I say that only because that's the standard TIGHAR is being held to by its numerous detractors, so what's good for the goose should be good for the gander as well, right?

LTM, who finds dry paint really interesting right now,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 CER

 
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: JNev on April 15, 2014, 06:31:58 AM
Thanks Chris.

Yes Colin has funded the project from the start.
We wanted to go further than just discussing and analysing the disappearance... we decided to put our money where our mouth is and aim to get AUVs to our search area and hopefully solve the mystery.

There hasn't been anyone testing the crashed and sank theory for a number of years now since Waitt in 2009. Sadly Ted Waitt just didn't put his Remus' in the right place, despite searching such a vast area. The Waitt expedition was probably the most technologically advanced search for Amelia to date, and we aim to use similar technology.

Watch this space.

Obviously true since nothing was found.  Whether Stratus can find the 'right place' is likewise a large test as well - as Gary LaPook himself once said, the Pacific is a big ocean.

Stratus' approach seems very much based on Gary getting 'inside of Fred's head', as it were, to provide a basis for a hypothesis.  I would suggest that when it came to navigation, Fred's intellect may have rivaled the Pacific in terms of vastness.  As I recall, Gary predominantly believes that Fred would have had Earhart doggedly searching for Howland until gas ran out, then splash-n-sink - which of course is a possibility, but contrary to the clear notion of a land-plane navigator seeking alternate landfall.  Which is what contemporaries of Noonan, like Friedell, seemed to think at the time.  Of course Friedell and others didn't find the lost ship then either.

Good luck - the Pacific is a large and expensive lawn to mow.
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: Colin Philip Cobb on April 15, 2014, 05:03:13 PM
Hello Monty and Jeff

Yes the 2012 conference was good fun.
Nearly 2 years ago now.
We are aware of the challenges ahead regarding a deep ocean search, and are prepared to do what we can to resolve this mystery.
I've full confidence in Gary's abilities, his experience and knowledge is as vast as noonan's, and to me stands the best hope of finding the Electra.
I will keep you posted as to any further developments.

Colin
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: JNev on April 16, 2014, 06:15:27 AM
Hello Monty and Jeff

Yes the 2012 conference was good fun.
Nearly 2 years ago now.
We are aware of the challenges ahead regarding a deep ocean search, and are prepared to do what we can to resolve this mystery.
I've full confidence in Gary's abilities, his experience and knowledge is as vast as noonan's, and to me stands the best hope of finding the Electra.
I will keep you posted as to any further developments.

Colin

Best of luck to you, truly, Colin.  That was an outstanding and fascinating presentation you gave on Earhart's Irish arrival and visit.  I also really want to see Titanic Dry Dock and Pump House one day and I love what you are doing there.  Great stories deserve to be told well, and you are a master.

Noonan's navigator's shoes: very large, like the Pacific is to oceans.  Gary's a great guy and smart - and like most of us, has an opinion or two.  Every organization has to have a direction and must 'find Howland' in the way they believe best, for sure. 

Until someone lays hands on the grail it is however an educated crap shoot in my view.  Do keep us posted.
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: Colin Philip Cobb on April 17, 2014, 07:29:19 AM
Hopefully we have a better than average chance at this.
But until the Electra is found it's anyone's game.
As to Titanics Dock in Belfast, all on this forum are welcome to visit me here at Titanic Quarter HQ. If any wish to visit Northern Ireland and experience the Titanic Heritage and a trip to the Amelia Landing site in Londonderry please contact me at:
info@titanicwalk.com

Thanks
Colin
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: JNev on April 17, 2014, 07:47:34 AM
Hopefully we have a better than average chance at this.
But until the Electra is found it's anyone's game.
As to Titanics Dock in Belfast, all on this forum are welcome to visit me here at Titanic Quarter HQ. If any wish to visit Northern Ireland and experience the Titanic Heritage and a trip to the Amelia Landing site in Londonderry please contact me at:
info@titanicwalk.com

Thanks
Colin

I will look forward to taking you up on that one day, thanks Colin.
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: Kent Beuchert on April 27, 2014, 01:01:43 PM
Somehow the claim that Gary's knowledge is as vast as Noonan's doesn't instill confidence - Noonan failed
to find Howland Island, remember?  Personally, I believe there exists reliable evidence from many independent sources in several formats that makes the idea of a splashdown extremely implausible.
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: Andrew M McKenna on April 27, 2014, 03:37:43 PM
I, and I'm sure others, miss Gary's contributions to the discussion on the forum.  Now we know what he's been spending his time on over the past two years.

The problem I have with Gary's way of seeing things is that it seems to come from his modern day view of what Amelia and Fred "would have" done, i.e. they would have set up an expanding box search for Howland, or how he dismisses potential evidence such as the Navy overflight or the post loss radio signals.  Gary is convinced that the Navy flyers "would have" spotted AE and FN with some 95% certainty during a 20 minute search, and therefore dismisses the possibility that they could have been on Nikumaroro at the time of the overflight. 

Similarly, he dismisses the post loss signals as being broadcasts out of Russia on reciprocal bearings to those that converge near Nikumaroro, but doesn't explain the lack of such receptions being heard prior to the flight (OK, maybe they just weren't reported), or more importantly why such random Russian transmissions just happen to peter out 5 days post loss.  If Gary is right, the incidence of reported receptions should actually increase with the vastly increased number of listeners, but they don't, they peter out and stop altogether just when the entire world was listening most intently.  One wonders what Gary thinks of the sonar anomaly that is the subject of TIGHAR's next expedition.

How does Gary explain these things?  He doesn't, he conveniently ignores them and everything else related to TIGHAR's work on Nikumaroro because it does not match up with his crashed and sank theory.  They are simply a series of odd coincidences to be ignored.  I see a series of odd but possibly related events as the dots that need to be connected in order to solve a mystery.

The website is a nice slick piece of work full of opportunities to "support" the Status Project, but it doesn't indicate what anyone gets for contributing.  To me, with all the secrecy, it looks like a big commercial publicity venture.  Don't get me wrong, looks like you're having a lot of fun with all of this, but without any disclosure from the Stratus Project it is impossible to evaluate the merits of the current thinking and what Gary has channeled from Fred that has been overlooked by all the other Earhart researchers.  Without some sort of visibility into the nitty gritty of your research, I'd be hesitant to donate money to the project. 

Colin - perhaps you can elaborate on whether all of this is a commercial venture, and what you plan to do with the aircraft after you dredge it up from the bottom somewhere near Howland?

Conversely, what are you going to do if the Electra is found in the deep water next to Nikumaroro?

Are you sure you don't want to hedge your bet and apply some of your funding to the Niku deep water anomaly search?  :-)

Looking forward to our next Guinness together.

Andrew

Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: Monty Fowler on April 27, 2014, 06:21:40 PM
*points up* What Andrew said.

One of TIGHAR's strengths is that absolutely nothing is hidden. It's ALL out there. The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly. Always has been. Always will be.

You can all thank me later for getting that catchy theme song stuck in your heads for the rest of the night  ;D

LTM, who finds dry paint really interesting right now,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 CER
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: Tim Mellon on April 28, 2014, 04:58:19 AM


One of TIGHAR's strengths is that absolutely nothing is hidden. It's ALL out there. The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly. Always has been. Always will be.

Monty, you've got to be kidding...all the extra High Definition video footage from both 2010 and 2012 has never been seen by Forum members, and I gather according to his own statements, not even by Ric Gillespie.
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: JNev on April 28, 2014, 05:53:45 AM
I remain unceasingly amazed at what this search brings out of people.  I suspect Earhart would be utterly astonished.
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: Colin Philip Cobb on April 29, 2014, 10:05:10 AM
I, and I'm sure others, miss Gary's contributions to the discussion on the forum.  Now we know what he's been spending his time on over the past two years.

The problem I have with Gary's way of seeing things is that it seems to come from his modern day view of what Amelia and Fred "would have" done, i.e. they would have set up an expanding box search for Howland, or how he dismisses potential evidence such as the Navy overflight or the post loss radio signals.  Gary is convinced that the Navy flyers "would have" spotted AE and FN with some 95% certainty during a 20 minute search, and therefore dismisses the possibility that they could have been on Nikumaroro at the time of the overflight. 

Similarly, he dismisses the post loss signals as being broadcasts out of Russia on reciprocal bearings to those that converge near Nikumaroro, but doesn't explain the lack of such receptions being heard prior to the flight (OK, maybe they just weren't reported), or more importantly why such random Russian transmissions just happen to peter out 5 days post loss.  If Gary is right, the incidence of reported receptions should actually increase with the vastly increased number of listeners, but they don't, they peter out and stop altogether just when the entire world was listening most intently.  One wonders what Gary thinks of the sonar anomaly that is the subject of TIGHAR's next expedition.

How does Gary explain these things?  He doesn't, he conveniently ignores them and everything else related to TIGHAR's work on Nikumaroro because it does not match up with his crashed and sank theory.  They are simply a series of odd coincidences to be ignored.  I see a series of odd but possibly related events as the dots that need to be connected in order to solve a mystery.

The website is a nice slick piece of work full of opportunities to "support" the Status Project, but it doesn't indicate what anyone gets for contributing.  To me, with all the secrecy, it looks like a big commercial publicity venture.  Don't get me wrong, looks like you're having a lot of fun with all of this, but without any disclosure from the Stratus Project it is impossible to evaluate the merits of the current thinking and what Gary has channeled from Fred that has been overlooked by all the other Earhart researchers.  Without some sort of visibility into the nitty gritty of your research, I'd be hesitant to donate money to the project. 

Colin - perhaps you can elaborate on whether all of this is a commercial venture, and what you plan to do with the aircraft after you dredge it up from the bottom somewhere near Howland?

Conversely, what are you going to do if the Electra is found in the deep water next to Nikumaroro?

Are you sure you don't want to hedge your bet and apply some of your funding to the Niku deep water anomaly search?  :-)

Looking forward to our next Guinness together.

Andrew

Hi Andrew

After that message you're buying all the Guinness next time :-)
Big commercial venture , no, we are in the process of applying for "not for profit" status.
Just incase you thought I was going to spend it on hot tub trips abroad.
And like all "not for profits" there will be accounts published online.

At this present time we are not releasing where we are searching as there are other ventures that will be in the region soon and we think it's wise to keep under wraps.
Tighar is protected by it's Antiques license against others searching in the area.
We have no such protection.

You want clarity well to date I've spent around $20k of my own personal money in the project.
But all things have a limit and any funds we do raise through the shop or donation packages go directly to administration and just keeping the awareness going.
Everything from Ashlins wage as it's her full time job to marketing and SEO for the website and some travel for talks etc.

And like other websites we own from Titanic to Jack the Ripper we pride ourselves on a good looking slick website.
If you want you're more than welcome to visit us here at Stratus HQ in Belfast, all those on the Tighar forum are welcome here to Belfast.

Our passion is born out of Amelia landing here in my home country to become the first woman to cross the Atlantic solo, we are genuine in our efforts and determined to to find Amelia's plane.
I look forward to your first T-Shirt order. :-)

Take care

Colin

Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: JNev on April 29, 2014, 06:13:31 PM
I admire your spirit, Colin, and the warm ties to Earhart in Ireland.

I don't envy your search, pretty gutsy though. 

But y'know it can't be where you're lookin', 'cause it's surely at Niku...  ;D

All the best, and I still hope to check out Titanic and the Ripper one day.
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: Jeff Victor Hayden on May 01, 2014, 05:42:07 AM
Does every visitor get the VIP tour Colin?


Gary LaPook visits Belfast

It’s been all go this last few weeks as Colin and I have been preparing for the arrival of the Stratus navigator Gary LaPook. To be fair it’s given us a kick up the backside to get everything finished as soon as possible. The biggest thing to do was our 3d theory presentation which we just about got finished in time. Still a few tweaks to do but it’s looking great.

The Irish are known for their hospitality and we definitely tried our best to give Gary a taste of Ireland. He had no clue what we would be doing until he arrived and he probably wasn’t quite expecting the whirlwind week that was in store. We combined Earhart talk with some good old fashioned sightseeing, not to mention having a couple of celestial navigation master classes by Yoda himself. So all in all this is what we crammed into the week:

Commemorated the launch of HMHS Britannic (sister of Titanic)
Had a tour of SS Nomadic (tender ship to Titanic)
Took Gary around the iconic Harland and Wolff drawing offices
Took one of the famous Belfast Black Taxi tours
Presented our 3d presentation to the team
Enjoyed a 6 course banquet marking the centenary of the launch of HMHS Britannic
Visited Bushmills distillery
Visited the famous Giant’s Causeway
Took a tour of the historic walls of Londonderry
Took Gary to Amelia’s landing site for the 1932 Transatlantic flight
Visited the Beech Hill hotel, base for American GIs in WW2
Took Gary around Titanic’s Dock and Pump-House
Had a photo shoot in the dock with a professional photographer
Had a celestial navigation master class by Gary
Took a taxi tour of Dublin
Visited the Guinness factory
As you can see this was a well-packed week!


I can personally recommend the Bushmills distillery tour! Note: Bushmills is probably the best whiskey in the world, try it.
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: JNev on May 01, 2014, 12:23:01 PM
I'm glad Gary had such a fine visit, that is very cool.

I'd love to visit the Guinness bewery.  Had a distant relative of a friend die while working there - fell into and drowned in a vat.  We'd hoped it was a quick end, but word came that he actually lingered for some time, having stepped out twice to pee...
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: Colin Philip Cobb on May 01, 2014, 02:36:57 PM
Hell I think Gary got a bit more shine on his visit than most. :-)
Can't promise that well packed one but definitely a Titanic Quarter tour and Amelia Landing spot with lunch thrown in.  Either way you will be looked after.
:-)
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: Ashlin Orrell on May 01, 2014, 05:18:05 PM
We certainly treated Gary like a king. Our sub-sea consultant, Bryce, also enjoyed the Irish hospitality.

Good one Jeff. That's one of the signature Irish jokes ;) The Irish certainly like their drink. I'm English - I prefer tea haha.
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: JNev on May 02, 2014, 10:12:35 AM
I always admired the Irish humor.

And tea it is for me as well, Ashlin.
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: Kent Beuchert on May 24, 2014, 08:06:34 PM
Considering the fact that Gary's claims about distances at which lights are visible to the human eye is
pure nonsense, here's hoping his theory about Noonan's thinking is a whole lot more accurate. 
Gary's theory that Noonan and Earhart would fly in search patterns until they splashed down strikes me as
pretty implausible, from a psychological point of view. I would, on the other hand, assume that they would
probably search until they reached the point at which knew they needed to fly south due to their fuel supply, and
then head south. With all those rather large islands down there, they knew they would sight at least
one. Which I believe they did. The outcome may have been bad (not all of their doing) but their strategy
was the correct strategy. I'm certain that Gary would have done the same thing. The business about Gary
being able to pinpoint the last position of their theorized search strategy requires no comment, least of all to those who inhabit this website.
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: Monty Fowler on May 25, 2014, 09:53:37 AM
All theories have equal validity - in the minds of their proponents - until TIGHAR finds the any idiot artifact during Niky VIII.

Although I am sure that even then, The Earhart Conspiracy Theory Industrial Complex will soldier on regardless. Sometimes the truth is a hard thing to face.

LTM, who is waiting to see how the paint dried,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 ECSP
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: JNev on May 27, 2014, 06:38:52 AM
The main trouble with theories seems to be that they are theoretical, until someone does find hard evidence.

TIGHAR is often criticized for its own theory / hypothesis, others often claiming to have better theories or hypotheses (all who have a pet theory tend to tell us all why they are right, and why the the others are wrong).

I'm sure TIGHAR does not hold absolute smoking gun evidence yet, no question; but it is the only outfit that has ever found and held anything that might be related to Earhart.  How odd - all that looking the 'the right places' according to other's theories over the years and not one shred, but having looked where TIGHAR's hypothesis points we at least have some fascinating things to study.

Argue with my point here as one will - but one argues with the wind: what I've just said is hard truth.  If another would prove their theory correct, then they must stand the same test they apply to TIGHAR.

I respect Gary, for one, but also recognize that his ability to accurately determine 'what happened' is as limited as anyone's must be: he wasn't 'there' and cannot know with any certainty that Earhart and Noonan did as he thinks.  Like TIGHAR re-applying the navy's first belief about a flight terminating in the Phoenix group and refining that approach through examination of Niku and consideration of the ground facts there, Gary believes in his own interpretation of Noonan's habits and efforts as he pursues Noonan's mind through an understanding of celestial navigation.

Two things in this peculiar phenomenon (the Earhart quest, as I see it - and belong to it) intrigue me deeply:

1 - Most of us are quite capable of being driven to ruminate into 'what must have happened' and emerge with a 'picture' that we tend to believe in, and
2 - We tend to adhere so tightly to what we've allowed ourselves to see as reasonable we tend to get defensive when our notions are challenged.

I see this as largely universal among dedicated search adherents, whatever their beliefs.  But at the end of the day, all we can do is 'keep looking', if we wish to find the lost plane: none have a guarantee of success; all have nothing more than ideas for now.  Except again, one outfit so far does at least possess found physical items that may be of sacred origin... perhaps time will prove or disprove that.
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: Monty Fowler on April 14, 2015, 09:22:34 AM
The Stratus Project seems to have gone dormant, at least judging from the complete lack of activity on its website.

LTM,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 ECSP
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: JNev on April 14, 2015, 10:55:36 AM
I have to admit that a certain malaise has set in with me that may be more common than I'd realized:

It IS a very large ocean - WORLD, for that matter - and even if Earhart did disappear at Niku, the envirnment even within that 'box' is large and hostile to search, IMO.

Loss at open sea is even more forbidding. 

I have come some months since earlier postings about Stratus.  I cannot tell that Stratus has made big leaps - I see no big announcements.  TIGHAR is probably the most aggressive and experienced expeditioneering camp active right now, and the challenges are apparent enough.  Reality is a real bugger, too: how many people even consider Earhart to be findable?

I won't go into how one might view the various search efforts as to what they might hope for - at face value it is obviously to 'find Earhart'.  I don't konw how doable that is - but one thing is undeniable:

As long as the search is still on, there's a place for all kinds of ideas to be pitched, for sure.

My generation was not alive when she disappeared - I did not appear until two decades after she dropped from view, and my interest has been keen.  Now I see my children's generation preparing to succeed mine - and they don't seem as focused on solving these things as they are on accepting the mysterious as part of history.  The Electra may as well be like the tale of the Holy Grail to them - interesting, but not necessarily something they need to lay hands on to believe it happened, etc.

No, maybe Stratus is finding it tough to attract support to go auger yet another hole in the ocean at a place of someone's idea of where it just had to happened - within, one guesses, a block of a thousand or so square miles maybe...

What is it that really drives people to do this...  Cobb's a nice fellow, but he's human and there is, after all, no free lunch.  Having even a hotdog on Earhart's reputation can be excruciating, I suspect.
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: Mark Appel on April 14, 2015, 12:57:45 PM
Stratus was always a long, long shot in an ocean of long shots. I wish them well, but it was going to be a futile slog for them. The ocean is such a big blank spot. And even if Gary's navigational hypothesis has merit--small errors, miscalculations or assumptions can translate to huge distances--underwater.

It's awfully hard to capture peoples' imaginations (much less their generosity) with a value proposition that amounts to "Our proprietary calculations suggest they might have sunk 70 years ago in the vast and bottomless Pacific Indian Ocean somewhere around here." Hell, with all of today's technology at our disposal and a trove of hard data, there's a Boeing triple 7 on the floor of the Pacific, excuse me, somewhere yet to be found.

To date, TIGHAR is the only research body to put in a consistent 25-year research effort that has produced plausible evidence in support of a plausible hypothesis. And it is our good fortune that the hypothesis maps to a compelling human interest story. With all respect for their efforts (and my understanding is they are fine, capable folks), Stratus well, not so much.

Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: JNev on April 14, 2015, 02:52:29 PM
...if only they had a rotten old seat cushion floating around...  :P

Well, that triple 7 is actually thought to be in the Indian Ocean... but point well taken (if it's in an ocean at all, but that's a Saipan kind of notion all its own I suppose...).

Hats off to 25 or so years of determined effort, and yes it is an intriguing 'picture'; that said, 25 years is a very long time with no proof yet, and the picture can actually mean things other than what we hope for.  It remains a tough search, IMO.
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: Bob Smith on April 14, 2015, 03:17:50 PM
Well there is definately another group "in search of"!! And its certainly interesting that it's a different theory. And they do have better looking coffee mugs and the T-shirts are cheaper... but what does all the nonsense and buddy-buddy stuff about scotland and best whiskey have to do with being a better  and more knowledgeable theory, because, with all due respect to the people in that organization ( who are " seeking a non-profit status") I wouldn't give a bucket of warm spit to anyone who doesn't show me some real credentials and findings to remotely suggest they are looking in the right place!!! These people I'm sure sound like they are all very nice people, but interest in Amelia and Fred since childhood ain't gonna cut it. I was interested in AE and FN in the 40's when I was just a tad, but That didn't make me an authority. Let's say I am very, very interested, as are many others in the TIGHAR and other groups and am willing to give anybody a chance to test their theory. But if they find something or provide some plausible hypothesis with their own money first, then my ears will perk up!
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: JNev on April 14, 2015, 11:02:26 PM
When I took macroeconomics in university we were told of an experiment whereby three control groups were studied to see if any particular skill set could measure more strongly as to stock buying and selling over a period of weeks.  There were three team members in each of three groups:

The three advanced studies students outperformed the three professional brokers;

The three novice subjects who were simply given daily trading sheets and allowed to make random buy-sell choices marginally outperformed both the students and pros - and each of the novices were millionaires at the end of six weeks - not bad for three chimpanzees.

There is an argument for being lucky rather than good.  IMO, nobody is THAT good.

They're nice people, but they are selling high risk ideas (risk directly proportional to the level of sacrifice realized by the donor).  Yes, their store stuff is nice, and I'm sure they will treat you well if you go there and inquire.

IMO, their idea is not wholly new.  It sounds a great deal like that of Elgen Long to me, a world-class navigator and heavy-iron trans-Pacific, world-girdling aviator and gentleman who along with his wife Marie wrote the book on crashed and sank. 

The twist may be that per Gary LaPook's writings in this place (help yourself, prolific - which he seems to regard in large part as his treatise d' confidence for his standing as consulting navigation theorist for Stratus) suggest that some sort of search pattern wrinkle may alter the supposed area of loss from that envisioned by Long. 

It's not entirely clear, and the specifics of where Stratus intends to search is very understandably a proprietary secret, as one cannot declare a section of open sea off limits to others who might swoop in for the glory.  That is one distinct advantage TIGHAR has in her venue at Niku: protection under agreement with sovereign Kiribati, subject to their goodwill and ability to protect, of course.

I am one, BTW, who believes Gary would serve himself and Stratus better were he to commit his general rationale, sans the telling detail so as to not comprise the solution, to academic paper: pointing to a scattered smattering of posts here, and at his site 'Fredienoonan.com' in the middle, and to a well received lecture to navigation veterans over there is a bit hard on those who might otherwise more kindly consider his curriculum vitae for the sake of such an important stake.  It would also lend a means to lead observers not into the potentially negative tone of frequently irascibly contested forum points, but into the more dispassionately calm mind of the intellectual expert.  Alas, the instinct of the counselor thus far prevails...  ::)

Yes we apparently have in Stratus a seeker of not-for-profit status whereby OPM (sometimes pronounced 'opium', for the uninitiated) can be solicited from the public for whatever reasons the proprietor(s), sovereign state of Ireland and donors can agree are legal, ethical, edifying and/or otherwise rewarding - ostensibly for the joy of solving the mystery in honor of Earhart's Irish ties and to the delight of those who'd celebrate LaPook's vision.  Judging by what one can observe at the Stratus site (no movement of late that I can tell) it must have been a blustery winter in Belfast. 

It may prove a rainy spring, as well. 

Some hold that TIGHAR is to blame by having consumed the lion's share of an oddly-imagined finite pool of funds.  At times it seems that if funds are to become available, TIGHAR's frailties must be pointed out that would-be investors could be wrested free from their misunderstandings and redirected to the correct camp. 

I question that severely as an exercise of mental diddling in the madness of finite wealth / market inelasticity that makes no sense: the public is generally willing to be plied to support worthwhile ideas, but may be reserved where ideas do not seem worthwhile due to risk, or for other reasons such as interest or questions as to qui bono, etc.  TIGHAR can no doubt attest that it is a matter of great effort to overcome market timidity for any number of such reasons, and while some degree of market shock may exist at times for various reasons, each new approach is just that where people yearn to know the answer.  Boring a hole in the Pacific of some several hundred or even thousand square mies probably rocks the wealthy and more pedestrian potential backer back on his/her heels more than we'd like to think, unfortunately.  I for one have come to appreciate just how large a task that can be.

One doesn't know for certain, but TIGHAR might well add that this has always been a tough prospect that has grown tougher of late. 

TIGHAR can at least point to what Ballard once referred to as a 'box' - and his words on that, as in many things, are worth the read: no matter how attractive or intriguing a search object, there's little point if you can't reasonably confine the search area; Earhart's loss legacy is essentially devoid of strong terms by which to reasonably confine an open sea search.  Niku at least provides some semblance of reason, geographically speaking, however elusive the wreck continues to prove itself.

LaPook counters the notion of Niku in some respectable ways, and others more viscerally expressed - but nearly all with a flare of distaste for that which is not crashed and sank, and all in support of a die-hard belief in Earhart's effort to find Howland or... crash and sink.

Long used a beautifully simple observation: all that we can reasonably tell, when taken at face value, suggests that Earhart ran out of fuel and crashed into the sea moments after her last known transmission to Itasca, somewhere near and to the north / west of Howland Island.  When one looks at Itasca's early moments in this misadventure - the first and only on scene and reacting to contemporary conditions that no outsider could know as well later, it makes very good sense.

So we have in Stratus, in my now somewhat agnostic if not jaundiced view, another craps table in the Earhart Casino.  Not to demean, truly - I merely enjoy mirth - if not a twist of the blade at times, and acknowledging that good, if imperfect people are where you find them.  And many are sincere searchers, but it has become some industry, hasn't it?

They are all worthy of study - if perhaps for a variety of reasons, not all having to do with likely success - and those like TIGHAR and Long who've devoted years of effort have produced very impressive works to ponder.  But remember, when it comes to the search, excellence may just be outshined by a chimp.  Gillespie himself has spoken of the need for luck at least once in my feeble memory, and it seems very true.
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: Bob Smith on April 15, 2015, 12:10:34 AM
Jeff I agree for the most part and I love your sense of humor, and your ability to inject intellectual reality into all this. If we only had the smaller box that Ballard had and his luck and resources we would be on to another project I suppose. It is just fun to watch sometimes, the people and the theories! We maybe could use a couple of chimps..
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: JNev on April 15, 2015, 07:39:54 AM
Thanks, Bob.  If it can't be fun and freshly honest, what's the point...

Sometimes I think I am the chimp - except for my luck; 'chump' may be more like it more often.  ::)

I'm sure Ric has enough monkeys on his back to have plenty of luck, but perhaps we could chimp, er, chip in, and provide a lucky mascot for Niku VIII...  ;)

While I wish the scope of Niku VIII were different, I will say that in those terms it is boxed well: the anomaly is in a doable area.

Yes it would be nice to have the resources Ballard has enjoyed time and again - including intelligence from his own navy: more was probably realized about Titanic's whereabouts than we understood at the time, fair enough.  Titanic is also many times the size and density of an Electra, not fair at all but beyond the control of all who would be fair, if they only could be.
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: Mark Appel on April 16, 2015, 12:18:14 PM
Well, that triple 7 is actually thought to be in the Indian Ocean... but point well taken (if it's in an ocean at all, but that's a Saipan kind of notion all its own I suppose...).

"Indian Ocean???" DOAH! No wonder they haven't found it yet...
Title: Re: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
Post by: JNev on April 16, 2015, 12:38:58 PM
Well, that triple 7 is actually thought to be in the Indian Ocean... but point well taken (if it's in an ocean at all, but that's a Saipan kind of notion all its own I suppose...).

"Indian Ocean???" DOAH! No wonder they haven't found it yet...

 ;)