TIGHAR
Amelia Earhart Search Forum => General discussion => Topic started by: Jeff Victor Hayden on July 03, 2013, 06:46:38 AM
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I have always been a tad sceptical about the Lambrecht/Colorado over flight and, how could they not have missed it. Less sceptical now though because of the following actual incident.
Sunday 30th June 2013, Bishopstone UK out walking the dog through the wheat fields when I heard the sound of a piston engine airplane approaching. Then a mad scramble to get glasses and mobile phone from pockets and, set up camera app’ to take photograph of the airplane. WW II DC-3 Dakota in Operation Overlord paint job, brilliant!!
Image one is what I hoped to get
Image two is what I actually got
Images three and four, horizon to horizon views
Why the crappy photograph then? Simple, I wasn’t expecting to see an airplane then and there. I wasn’t prepared, visibility was perfect, horizon to horizon and yet the outcome was rubbish. If I had not been out in the open and, maybe in the treeline/forest the outcome would have been even crappier (is that a word?).
Just an observation/personal experience on the unexpected catching you out, be prepared!
Lambrecht/Colorado over flight guaranteed to elicit a response? MMmmm, not so sure now.
https://maps.google.co.uk/maps?q=bishopstone+uk&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x4873c02aae3efa67:0xc32d7c3e98332c1f,Bishopstone,+Wiltshire&gl=uk&ei=fBfUUfnADo_20gXAooFA&ved=0CHYQtgM (https://maps.google.co.uk/maps?q=bishopstone+uk&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x4873c02aae3efa67:0xc32d7c3e98332c1f,Bishopstone,+Wiltshire&gl=uk&ei=fBfUUfnADo_20gXAooFA&ved=0CHYQtgM)
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Jeff V,
are you trying to say that even if the conditions were right if AE/FN wern’t prepared then the indow of opportunity was too small for signaling for rescue?
Wasn't the argument from some people that the fly past would be in a better position to see figures on the ground?
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Simply pointing out Chris that the unexpected catches you out. Did they expect an over flight?
Were they prepared for that? Were they preparing for a ship search instead?
I expected a better photograph, I expect the crew saw me, I was out in the open. What I didn't expect was a WWII DC-3 Dakota suddenly appearing out of nowhere, hence the naff photo.
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Cheers Jeff, got it. Very good observation especialy as the concensus is that they wern't expecting planes.
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Another thing to factor in about Jeff's observations is one key difference between the two areas - noise.
Jeff was in the middle of a (relatively) quiet wheat field.
Niku is surrounded on all sides by a relentless ocean that likes to expend useless energy pounding water to bits on its reefs. Heavy surf. Noise. Lots and lots of noise. White noise to the extent that it is perfectly capable of drowning out the sounds of airplane engines until they are right ... over ... your ... head.
LTM, who knows all about white noise,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 CER
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Another point to note from the photos is the American Spaniel ???
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Why the seven site? A number of reasons have been put forward and, all are very good and valid, sea breezes, access to lagoon, the ocean, fishing, turtles etc... Well, if you couldn't get yourself noticed when 3 search planes flew around the island unexpectedly the first time you might want to figure out why just in case they come back again.
This theory is based around the camp zero/let's stick around where the plane went in/Norwich City/Western part of Island scenario which has been discussed at length in other threads (black dot in image). If you take a look at the first image (courtesy of Gary Lapook) he has added a nice search pattern, which looks quite reasonable.
It is quite noticeable that when the search planes are turning around the Western part of the island their field of view is limited to a quite short span of time as indicated with the red lines. Now if you look at the location of the seven site (red circle in image) on part of the thinnest stretch of the island and, the tracks of the search planes you can see that the field of view and time span has increased quite considerably, both from the North and South tracks of the over flight.
Could it be that as result of the missed opportunity of the first over flight it was decided that the thin part of the island would give the aerial search a much better chance of seeing them and, give them a better chance of attracting their attention, hence the move to the seven site?
Of course there never was a second over flight but, they weren't to know that.
Just a theory and of course, open to speculation.
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Good observation, Jeff. And in your experiment, you were not injured, dehydrated, starving, delirious with heat stroke, and emotionally devastated from watching your last link with the outside world -- in their case, the aircraft and radio -- get swept into the surf. If it is true that Amelia hobbling with an injured ankle and Fred was even more serioiusly injured, then after a full week on that wild island, they might even have considered Lambrecht's "zooming" somewhere above the tree cover, over the crashing of the surf, to be just another hallucination, as they lay gasping for breath with parched throats on their coconut-leave mats in the foliage. Considering their physical, mental and emotional exhaustion, it might have taken them precious minutes through their disorientation to even understand what they might be hearing. Other posts have suggested that if they expected rescue at all, it would be from the sea, so this aircraft buzz would indeed be unexpected. After seeing -- and missing -- the Lambrecht flight, they may have been too weak by that time to devise appropriate air-rescue signals, except those ambiguous "signs of habitation." I find it more and more believable that AH and FN were either dead or too disabled to respond to the Lambrecht overflight.
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I believe there may have been a few factors preventing them from responding quickly to the Lambrecht flight.
Post-loss radio signals indicate AE/FN were transmitting as late as 2018 on 7 July (Niku date and time) (http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Research/ResearchPapers/Brandenburg/signalcatalog5.html).
The total transmission time required for all of the credible post-loss signals is 451 minutes. (http://tighar.org/wiki/Post-loss_Radio_Messages--Overview)
There may even be unaccounted for time that AE/FN would have spent at the radio transmitting signals that went unheard.
I believe they spent the majority of the first days and evenings cranking up the engines and/or expending the battery power to run the radio to churn out messages.
Could they have done this while injured? Possibly. And post-loss messages indicate they were injured.
Did they only climb in and out of the plane to transmit messages? Did they stay in the plane during this first week? This we don't know- hence the search for camp zero.
But, no matter where they stayed during those first days, if post-loss radio messages are to be believed then either AE or FN (or both) were able perform the functions needed to transmit these messages (at least through 7 July).
By 9 July the tide was high and the plane was engulfed.
Lambrecht flew over the island early on 9 July. Rather than dying and gasping their last breaths, I believe they may have been sleeping. Most of their radio activity had occurred overnight for them, so they probably slept during part or all of the day.
Injuries may have prevented a quick sprint to open ground to signal at a passing plane. There may have been SOS type signs on the beach, but these could have been skewed due to the tides.
FN may have passed earlier than the 9th due to his head injury, bleeding, etc, but I believe AE was alive and mobile during the flyover- she just didn't get to open ground on time.
LTM who's tuning the radio,
Stacy
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Stacy said
Lambrecht flew over the island early on 9 July. Rather than dying and gasping their last breaths, I believe they may have been sleeping. Most of their radio activity had occurred overnight for them, so they probably slept during part or all of the day.
Its sometimes the simple explanation's that might just be the right one.
You've been up night after night trying to raise help, your tired, hungry and exhausted. You close your eyes for a moment with the sound of surf ringing in your ears and the wind blowing through the bush. A lot more difficult to be aware of the planes than some posters would have you believe?
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Excellant point of a reason to be caught sleeping.
Back in a November 2011 thread (http://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,517.msg6643.html#msg6643) I posted the following:
<snip>...I noticed on the sketch attached to Lambrecht's report that their flight path over Gardner approached from the NE. To an observer camped near the Norwich City at 08:00 on an early July morning, that direction would have been obscured by the trees and roughly in the morning sun. In other words, there would have been no warning of approaching aircraft to anyone who might have been in that location.
Almost nothing is recorded of the detailed flight path over the island.
The flight departed to the SE.
What would a rational survivor on the NW part of the island do if a flight had suddenly appeared from the East, and departed to the south east? Staying on the NW part of the island when evidence of help might seem to be to the East and South?
One more thing I noticed from the sketch - Lambrecht's plotted return path to the ship passed within roughly 15 NM of Gardner, also to the east of the island, travelling from south to north. That's close enough to be heard and seen from Gardner, under decent conditions. The winds at the time were "northeast to east, 13-15 knots...", making the east side of the island in the lee of the wind, and therefore quieter and better able to hear aircraft in the distance.
<snip>
Later (I haven't found the thread or post), I estimated the distance I could hear a Beech B-18 departing the airport I work at, and was surprised that it ceased to be heard in only a couple miles, and that's under good conditions! This implies that an aircraft would be zooming over one end of the island and not even be heard at the other end!
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Stacy's comment above reminded me of a question I've been meaning to ask. We know they had to power up one of the engines to operate the radio. Would they have to keep the engine running continuously during transmitting/receiving, or just enough to charge the battery? If they had to run the engine continuously, then they could have suffered auditory trauma -- loss of hearing -- that would have hampered their hearing of Lambrecht's flight. We already know it was too loud in the cockpit during normal flight for AH and FN to even hear each other, requiring Fred to pass written messages forward to Amelia. Amelia's flight headgear may have muffled the sound somewhat, but coming off a 24 hour flight of steady engine roaring, their ears may already have been affected. After the landing, in that hot cockpit, it is unlikely that they would don headgear while they ran the engine to power the radio. So they would have exposed themselves to almost 8 hours of repetitive, high-decibel noise, reverberating in a small drum-like space. Debilitating hearing loss and tinnitus may have prevented them from hearing the faint drone of the approaching Lambrecht aircraft until it was too late to respond. Such hearing loss may also have made it difficult to hear some of the radio messages directed to them, particularly if their hearing loss was in the high frequency range.
Scott
TIGHAR #3292
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Would they have to keep the engine running continuously during transmitting/receiving, or just enough to charge the battery?
They only needed to run the engine at 900 RPM to charge the battery - not load enough to be a problem.
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Ah, very well. Thanks for the edification. :)
Scott
TIGHAR #3292
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What hearing loss? "Say it again please....Over"
Three old aviators had just finished a days flying and were walking across the ramp to the operations building.
1st aviator says "Sure is windy"
2nd aviator "No, I'm sure it's Thursday"
3rd aviator "Me too, let's go get a beer"
Cheers,
Dave
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What hearing loss? "Say it again please....Over"
Three old aviators had just finished a days flying and were walking across the ramp to the operations building.
1st aviator says "Sure is windy"
2nd aviator "No, I'm sure it's Thursday"
3rd aviator "Me too, let's go get a beer"
Cheers,
Dave
Funny--thanks for my first laugh of the day Dave. ;)
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I think Stacy makes an excellent point. I have contemplated this scenario a few times myself. Especially after two nights of hardly any sleep. When I reach this point I can sleep anywhere sitting or laying down. If asleep long enough to enter the REM SLEEP STAGE, nothing will wake me either. Just for the record I am a light sleeper.