TIGHAR
Amelia Earhart Search Forum => Artifact Analysis => Topic started by: Jeffrey Pearce on December 13, 2016, 06:40:48 PM
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Would Amelia Earhart have made an in air radio broadcast announcing she was going to land on an island?
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Yes.
She probably made a lot of transmissions, following the transmission schedule she had prepared beforehand.
The next question, of course, is: If Amelia did transmit her intentions to land on a reef next to an island, did anyone hear her?
As people often say, singing in unison with Carl Sagan, "Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence."
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Yes, Marty. That would be my next question, or, poll. Would her radio broadcast have been heard? This is a question I will leave for the experts.
Jeff
Member 3396S
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In the last few days I have reread chapter 13-The Itasca and Howland Island-of Elgin Long's book. I also reread some of chapter 14-The Search for Earhart. I wanted to see if by what Long said there could have been a last minute south bound run that could have ended with a landing at Gardner Island. Earhart made a broadcast at 0803 ISTGardner Island?(Itasca Ship Time) that he said "was very loud and sounded even closer than before." So, Earhart was still getting closer to Howland Island. Her next broadcast was at 0843 IST. Long states "She was loud, at the same strength she had been an hour earlier at 0742 IST". However, Long shortly thereafter says "For the first time, her signal was not quite as strong as the preceding signal had been.". Was Earhart on her way southward toward Gardner Island? and getting further away from Howland Island? Nothing was heard from Earhart again.
Would the 40 minutes between 0803 IST and 0843 IST be enough to result in a landing at Gardner Island? One could add some additional minutes to these 40 minutes but I don't think it would be logical to go beyond that. How about 20 minutes more for a total of one hour flying time to Gardner Island. At 0742 IST Earhart said she had only one hour of fuel left. That one hour ended at the time of her last broadcast at 0843 IST.
One could work one's way back from Gardner Island and find a starting point or points for Earhart's run to a Gardner Island landing utilizing a projected aircraft speed she may have used in the run to Gardner.
Concerning whether or not a possible in air announcement by Earhart was made announcing she was going to land on an island, it would be interesting to conduct a test of in air radio reception by placing like equipment at Howland Island and in a plane south of Howland Island(identical equipment would be ideal) at the times and date, July 2 give or take a few days, and remake her known announcements along with additional testing after her last 0843 IST broadcast to see what would be learned. Or, would expert testimony suffice in lieu of such a test?
Jeff
Member 3396S
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The relationship between apparent strength of radio signal and proximity to Howland is not a simple correlation, there has been research done previously by Tighar on this
Ie https://tighar.org/Publications/TTracks/2008Vol_24/donut.pdf
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It is only logical to consider whether or not an in air radio broadcast made by Amelia Earhart announcing she was going to land on an island, i.e. Gardner Island, would be heard at Howland Island.
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Amelia Earhart would want to announce that she was going to land on an island, i.e. Gardner Island, before she landed. Her life was at stake and she would want to get her announcement out before a landing.
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I'm trying to understand this thread. Help me out, please. What is the point?
Her radio transmissions, other than the ones that were heard and transcribed, are unknown, and unknowable.
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Jeff, I for one, and most others I suspect, would agree that it would be reasonable for AE to have sent several radio messages as she flew south and to have sent a message when she saw Niku but no such messages were reported after 8:43 am that day.
Either she did transmit and for whatever reason/cause was not heard (ie propagation/equipment issues, poor radio practices ) or she did not transmit (already crashed and sank, other unknowable reason).
If you conducted the recreation of the flight that you mentioned above and radio messages were heard at Howland it would not rule out the possibility that AE landed on Niku and if messages were not heard it would not confirm the landing due to the large number of ambiguities and unknowns involved. Finding physical proof of the presence of the Electra, AE or FN on Niku is still the most definitive way to confirm the hypothesis and where it makes the most sense for Tighar to direct its resources.
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Alfred and Matt,
I believe most would agree that Amelia Earhart would have made a radio broadcast from the Electra while the Electra was in the air announcing she was going to land on an island. TIGHAR suggests that island would be Gardner Island. Her life simply depended on getting this announcement out before a landing. I believe it is correct to say that an announcement of this kind was not heard by the Itasca off Howland Island. If a test was performed by the best people possible to recreate the radio broadcasts made by Amelia Earhart during at least the last hour or so of her flight I believe the results of the test could determine whether or not Amelia Earhart actually landed on an island, i.e. Gardner Island according to TIGHAR. If the test results show that an in air announcement by Amelia Earhart would have been heard at Howland Island this would indicate that Amelia Earhart did not make the in air announcement because it would have been received if she had and therefore in all probability would mean Amelia Earhart did not land on an island, i.e. Gardner Island.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqS9GXM7nag
See this video
This thread probably belongs in Radio Reflections
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There is so much wrong with your thought process, I hardly know where to start.
You have strung together a series of guesses and seek to conclude from it that a landing on Gardner did not occur. You have not convinced me.
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Unfortunately, it is impossible to recreate any transmissions from the Earhart aircraft as we do not/can not know in any perfect sense the exact equipment, and condition of said equipment, especially the antenna(s) at the time of her disappearance. You also cannot duplicate the atmospheric conditions of a previous era due to all the changes that have occurred in our atmosphere in the decades since. Then we come to your line about the, "best people possible" and I am left to wonder by which criteria are we to pick these "best people"? It all sounds like such an easy thing to do, but in all actuality it can't be done.
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When they left Lae the morning before(in daylight), they were supposed to transmit every 18 minutes past the hour. All of these planned transmissions were not heard in the first 4 hours of the flight, all in daylight. Therefore there was likely a problem with hearing them on freq. 6210(their daylight freq.) when less than about 500 miles away. Gardner Island is 350 miles away from Howland.
So based on this likely problem with freq. 6210, the next morning when they switched to it as they said they were going to do, they were too close to hear again. Ric explained this better in the video.
Shortly after Earhart said they were going to change frequencies, Itasca stopped hearing them. However by 1855, when again on 3105, Itasca heard them. “We hear her on 3105 Kcs now, very weak and unreadable/voice.”
https://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Research/ResearchPapers/Brandenburg/signalcatalog2.html
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Alfred,
Your Reply #11 in all truthfulness is probably undeserving of a response, other recent replies are considerably more informed and respectful, but I felt it necessary to let it be known that I am not, to use your words, "guessing" anything and I am not trying to prove, again using your words, "THAT A LANDING ON GARDNER DID NOT OCCUR". I, along with others with a like understanding of the Amelia Earhart disappearance situation, just want to learn the facts so a determination can possibly be made regarding where the termination point was for Amelia Earhart's flight to Howland Island.
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Jeffrey, no disrespect intended.
Below, I have underlined where you are making guesses:
"I believe most would agree that Amelia Earhart would have made a radio broadcast from the Electra while the Electra was in the air announcing she was going to land on an island. TIGHAR suggests that island would be Gardner Island. Her life simply depended on getting this announcement out before a landing. I believe it is correct to say that an announcement of this kind was not heard by the Itasca off Howland Island. If a test was performed by the best people possible to recreate the radio broadcasts made by Amelia Earhart during at least the last hour or so of her flight I believe the results of the test could determine whether or not Amelia Earhart actually landed on an island, i.e. Gardner Island according to TIGHAR. If the test results show that an in air announcement by Amelia Earhart would have been heard at Howland Island this would indicate that Amelia Earhart did not make the in air announcement because it would have been received if she had and therefore in all probability would mean Amelia Earhart did not land on an island, i.e. Gardner Island."
As others have pointed out, the test you suggest is not even possible.
Alfred
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Alfred,
I shall try one more time to address your remarks. If I fail to satisfy you, Alfred, I want you and others to understand that I will not try again. Perhaps someone else would be able to communicate with you better than I can.
Have you seen the poll in this thread? The results of the poll indicate people believe Amelia Earhart would have made an in air broadcast to announce she was going to land on an island. Furthermore, TIGHAR support staff have informed me they believe Amelia Earhart would have made an in air broadcast announcing she was going to land on an island, i.e. Gardner Island.
Alfred, for the moment, put yourself in Amelia Earhart's position. You have seen an island in the distance. You have decided to try to land on the island. You have some time at your disposal before you arrive at the island. Before you attempt a landing on the island you think to yourself do you want mankind to know that you are going to land on an island or do you not want mankind to know that you are going to land on an island? You decide that you want mankind to know that you are going to land on an island. You want mankind to know as much as possible what has happened to you and where you are. You want someone to come and get you. You want to live, Alfred!
The fourth sentence in my April 23 post begins a description of one process of discovery, and right now the only process of discovery that comes to my mind, that simply and briefly outlines the steps that could be taken in order to reveal whether or not Amelia Earhart's in air radio broadcast would have been heard by the Itasca just off Howland Island or heard by someone else. Alfred, there is absolutely no guesswork involved or required concerning sentence #4 and the process of discovery I briefly outline after sentence #4.
Thank you, Alfred. I hope you have a good day!
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Jeffrey and Alfred,
If I had to guess – and that’s all it is, a guess – AE/FN saw Gardner and each were trying to find some chart to get the name of the island.
Not knowing if they found a chart that had a name associated with what they were seeing the internal cockpit discussion would normally change:
- “we are running low on gas and we need to land”
- AE/FN “do you see any place to land?”
- “is the reef flat smooth enough to land on? Let’s fly down the reef flat so we can survey the surface”
- “hang on we are going in”
Bottom line, once they saw Gardner no further external broadcast was made until they were on the ground and they were able to calm down.
Ted Campbell
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Ted,
If there was no in air broadcast announcing an intention to land on an island, this could possibly indicate a landing on an island, i.e. Gardner Island, did not occur. To say that "no further external broadcast was made" can signify that an island landing may not have happened.
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If there was no in air broadcast announcing an intention to land on an island, this could possibly indicate a landing on an island, i.e. Gardner Island, did not occur. To say that "no further external broadcast was made" can signify that an island landing may not have happened.
The unstated structure of your argument is:
If a broadcast is made, it is always heard.
No broadcast was heard.
Therefore, no broadcast was made.
Therefore, they did not land at Gardner.
The problem is in the very first assumption you are making--that all broadcasts are heard.
We have evidence that AE's broadcasts on her "daytime frequency" were not heard for four hours after takeoff (http://tighar.org/wiki/Radio_propagation).
From that page:
"I will foolishly tread forward here. Perhaps the phenomenon of 'skip zone' was responsible [for no further transmissions being heard after 8:43 AM, when Earhart switched to her daytime frequency of 6210 kHz]: too far for good reception of ground wave, or direct wave, and not far enough away to receive her signal via skip propagation (sky wave.) I think i have seen old propagation charts which actually give distances for the skip zone, a dead zone of no reception, around the transmitting station."
Hue Miller, 23 February 2009 Forum (http://tighar.org/wiki/AESF)
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Marty,
Thank you for your information. I must, however, tell you that, and using your words, "If a broadcast is made, it is always heard." I believe you are stating that I believe this is true. Marty, I have never said this.
Then, you go on to say "The problem is in the very first assumption you are making--that all broadcasts are heard." Again, Marty, I have never said that. That is just too simplistic a statement and thought. I do hope that others understand this.
I will not waiver from the thoughts I have expressed in this thread. These thoughts, I believe, speak for themselves.
I know I am a person who believes that facts are what is important. The facts are what I am seeking.
Thank you once again, Marty. It is my pleasure to have this dialogue with you.
Jeff
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http://tighar.org/wiki/Frequency,_wavelength,_and_antenna_tuning#Daytime.2Fnighttime_frequencies (http://tighar.org/wiki/Frequency,_wavelength,_and_antenna_tuning#Daytime.2Fnighttime_frequencies)
Thank you for your information. I must, however, tell you that, and using your words, "If a broadcast is made, it is always heard." I believe you are stating that I believe this is true. Marty, I have never said this.
I didn't say that you SAID it.
I said that this premise is essential for the argument you are making.
- No broadcast was received.
- Therefore, no broadcast was made.
- Therefore, the plane went down in the ocean.
It is a fact that no broadcast was logged in any logs to which we have access.
Reasoning from this fact depends on understanding the nature of radio transmissions.
Wrong assumptions (premises) about radio transmissions will lead to wrong conclusions about the meaning of the fact on which we agree.
That people often make broadcasts that are not heard is a matter of fact.
"Radio propagation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radio_propagation) is the behavior of radio waves as they travel, or are propagated, from one point to another, or into various parts of the atmosphere. As a form of electromagnetic radiation, like light waves, radio waves are affected by the phenomena of reflection, refraction, diffraction, absorption, polarization, and scattering. Understanding the effects of varying conditions on radio propagation has many practical applications, from choosing frequencies for international shortwave broadcasters, to designing reliable mobile telephone systems, to radio navigation, to operation of radar systems."
The reflective qualities of the ionosphere change as the sun rises. This affects propagation. Amelia was heard loud and clear on her "nighttime frequency" (http://tighar.org/wiki/Frequency,_wavelength,_and_antenna_tuning#Daytime.2Fnighttime_frequencies) (3105 kHz). In her last intelligible message (http://tighar.org/wiki/%22We_are_on_the_line_157_337%22), she indicated that she was changing to her "daytime frequency" (6210 kHz). The Coast Guard never heard anything on that frequency at all. Some people think that means that the ship went down after that last transmission. TIGHAR believes that she did what she said she would and that the transmissions on her daytime frequency were not heard--just as they had not been heard the day before for the first four hours of her flight away from Lae.
That no intelligible transmissions were heard after Earhart announced she was changing frequencies could mean that they crashed in the ocean; it could also mean that the atmospheric conditions were not conducive to reception at Howland Island on that day at that time.
It is meaningless to try to perform an experiment by broadcasting from a replica of the Electra using replica transmitters to try to reach a replica of the Itasca and of the station on Howland Island. Experimental method requires "controlling the variables." It is impossible to know exactly what equipment was on board the aircraft; it is impossible to know exactly what equipment was on the Itasca; it is impossible to duplicate the antennas on the aircraft and on the two receiving stations at Howland; it is impossible to know the atmospheric conditions on 2 July 1937; it is impossible to arrange to duplicate those conditions today; it is impossible to know where the Electra was when AE's transmissions were received; it is impossible to fly a replica aircraft on the course that she took on 1-2 July 1937.
These, too, are matters of fact.
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If the test results show that an in air announcement by Amelia Earhart would have been heard at Howland Island this would indicate that Amelia Earhart did not make the in air announcement because it would have been received if she had and therefore in all probability would mean Amelia Earhart did not land on an island, i.e. Gardner Island.
Jeffrey, this is just one place where you made the assumption. I used the quote function so you can see it is your own words and can identify where we are seeing it.
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Greg,
I have no problem with the quote you have included. Thank you, Greg.
My membership, I believe, is due to expire today. I have decided not to renew my membership. I believe this decision is in order as far as I am concerned. It is out of respect for TIGHAR that I have decided to do this.
Thank you, TIGHAR, for the opportunity to get involved concerning the disappearance of Amelia Earhart.
Sincerely,
Jeff Pearce